Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 150823

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
323 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Colder air will move across our area today behind a strengthening
low over New England. The cold air and northwest winds may result
in scattered snow showers over southwest Michigan and northwest
and north central Indiana. High pressure will move across our area
Thursday providing fair weather. An unseasonably warm airmass will
move into the area Friday, and linger over the weekend and into
early next week, providing much above normal temperatures and dry


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Shrtwv dropping se across our cwa early this morning accompanied by
rather strong CAA which should persist until about midday resulting
in seasonably cold highs ranging from the lwr 30s nw to the upr 30s
se. Some clearing behind initial strato cu deck along the frontal
boundary, but caa and some wk lake induced instability with nw flow,
should allow strato cu to fill back in resulting in partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the area with a few snow showers
downwind of Lake Michigan. NW flow will cont tonight, though
will be weakening as sfc ridge approaches. Combination of wk waa
aloft and an apchg wk shrtwv in the nw flow should keep skies
partly to mostly cloudy with again a few snow showers possible
near Lake Michigan. Cloudiness should limit radiational cooling,
but a rather cold airmass will allow temps to fall to 18-25F
range by morning.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 15 2017

Warming trend will begin Thu as sfc ridge crosses the area while upr
level ridging approaches from the plains. This ridge will move into
the Midwest late this week providing unseasonably warm temps. A wk
shrtwv and accompanying sfc cdfnt will top the ridge and move
across our area Sat/Sat ngt. Wk forcing and lack of moisture will
keep fropa dry. An even stronger upr ridge will be building back
into the area from the srn plains Sunday in response to troughing
moving into wrn U.S., so, any post-frontal cooling should be
limited and brief. This strong upr ridge movg across the the
Midwest Monday should result in near record temps with lows mainly
in the 40s and highs in the 60s across our area (about 25F above
normal). Another shrtwv/cdfnt expected to top the ridge Tue.
Forcing with this system should be a little stronger with some
gulf moisture advecting n-ne into our area ahead of it providing
potential for showers along the frontal zone.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Cold front will move through KFWA by issuance time with a few
light snow showers or sprinkles possible...along with a brief
period of gusty nnw winds (20-30 kt gusts) through 07z.
Conditions should remain mainly VFR behind the cold front early
this morning. Main surge of cold advection after daybreak to
generate lake effect clouds generally in the high MVFR to low VFR
range today-tonight, with a few light lake effect snow
showers/flurries possible at mainly KSBN. Could see some brief VIS
restrictions here, though confidence/coverage remains too low for
any VIS restrictions in the TAF at this time.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.




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