Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 071935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
335 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND A LAKE BREEZE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR MID WEEK...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL DROP BACK ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014


LATEST KIWX RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NW CWA ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE VIS SAT SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW LWR MI BACK THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
OVER TO FRONTAL WAVE FORMING IN CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER TROF MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD LEND SOME MID LEVEL SUPPORT TO COMBINE
WITH 50-55KT NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPING IN EASTERN KANSAS/CENTRAL
MISSOURI TONIGHT. LLJ FORECAST TO VEER TO W/SW OVERNIGHT LEADING TO
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS MOVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...STILL
ANTICIPATE DECENT COVERAGE OF SH/TSRA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE APPROACH OF FRONTAL WAVE IN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT. MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30KTS.
DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TUESDAY AS SFC FRONT AND UPPER TROF MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LOWS U60S TO AROUND 70. A LITTLE
COOLER FOR TUESDAY WITH U70S TO AROUND 80 AS COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

PAIR OF STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES INTO ND AND FARTHER INTO
NORTHERN SASK TO AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM JAMES BAY TO GREAT LAKES TROF BY
MID WEEK. PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING...THOUGH
CONTINUE SMALL CHC POPS AMID TRAILING SECONDARY AND ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SPEED MAX DROPPING SEWD THROUGH WI INTO WCNTL LWR MI BY
DAYBREAK WED. DWINDLING MOISTURE PROFILE AMID LACK OF STRONG SIGNAL
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BEYOND TUE.
THEREAFTER...STRONGLY SUBSIDENT/DRY CP AIRMASS OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY DY3/4. RIDGE CENTROID SLIDES EWD UPSTATE NEW
YORK/UPR OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENSION TO EFFECTIVELY
SHUNT ALL BUT FAR WESTERN GOMEX FEED. LACK OF EARLY SIG THETA-E
RETURN TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AT EARLIEST.
BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES SAT ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR WAVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGHER BELTED HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACH OF
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. ECE/GEFS MEAN POPS ALSO TARGET SAT ATTM. GIVEN
LARGE DISPARITY BETWEEN GFS/EC THEREAFTER HAVE HELD ON EXPANDING
MENTION PENDING CONSENSUS BUILT SIGNALS BEYOND THE TRAILING LOW
CHC POPS ON SAT NIGHT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

LATEST VIS SAT AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTENSIVE BKN/OVC MVFR
CIGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWING
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE NW CWA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW KSBN TO SCATTER
OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR PRECIP RETURN BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY...HIRES MODELS DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
IN MID MS VALLEY AND TAKING IT ON AN E/SE TRACK AND SOUTH OF BOTH
TAFS SITES. STILL EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SO WILL GO WITH PREVAILING PERIOD OF -SHRA AT BOTH SITES BUT HOLD
OFF ON ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JAL


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