Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 160539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
139 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A weak system will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
to the area today and early this evening. It will be cloudy but
mild with highs in the 70s. Very warm and dry weather returns on
Monday with high temperatures soaring to near record values in the
80s. Warm and dry weather continues Tuesday with highs in the
upper 70s across lower Michigan and back in the lower 80s over
north central Indiana and northwest Ohio. The next chance for rain
returns Tuesday night into Wednesday with a trend toward normal


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Primary upstream shortwave from eastern SD into eastern CO to
continue eastward track through mid Mississippi Valley overnight and
into southern Upper Great Lakes midday Sunday. Slightly slower
progression suggested in model signals with only about northwest tip
of CWA on the leading edge of any appreciable MUCAPE generally at or
below 500 j/kg and collocation of 45-50 kt low level jet axis. Will
focus on a slight delay in adding detail to forecast late tonight.
With time western Yukon vortex retrogrades wsw as it digs into Gulf
of AK on Sunday. This lends a wash out of surface reflection north
of CWA. Will hold to lesser/slight chance of TSRA on Sunday given
weak deep layer shear profiles and again nominal instability as more
stout mid level lapse rates relegated well west of CWA. Perhaps best
chances for shra/tsra, especially for eastern CWA, may be later Sun
eve/early Sun night low level warm air advection leaf lifting north-
northeasterly through the CWA.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT Sat Oct 15 2016

With CWA solidly in warm sector mon into tue, will continue with
near record warmth, not only max record highs approachable, but also
some record warm low temperatures may be bested. While upstream
active pacific northwest flow regime persists, subsequent ejections
after tonight/Sun will be deflected well northwest of CWA until
trailing frontal passage late Tue. However, given bulk of height
falls held well north of CWA and overall meager prefrontal moisture
profiles, have nixed token pops Tue afternoon, and quell to lower
end chances for shra as perhaps a half hearted anafrontal response
occurs as boundary layer cools. This front in association with late
Sunday night eastern CO/western KS cyclogenesis with attendant front
ejecting northeast. Cautionary hereafter in approach/diverging from
blend as handling of bulk of mid level energy quite diverse with
high run to run spread. For now more consistent signal of slightly
progressive open wave through plains midweek...progressing into more
deeply dug trof through the Mississippi Valley on Fri. Some portends
to frontal zone lying out with southern Plains to Ohio Valley
frontal waves especially late Wed into Thursday suggesting a more
stable stratiform response. Then a cool period into the
weekend/tighter diurnal spread per clouds and persistent but
relatively low chance of showers as trof axis shifts eastward into
our region and potential cutoff formation somewhere from TN
Valley/GFS to FL panhandle/EC.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

VFR conditions to start the period overnight. Winds around 10
knots at the surface overnight but around 40 knots at 2kft as seen
locally on KIWX 88D Vad Wind Profiler. Will continue LLWS in
terminals through daybreak. Rain chances increase toward 12z at
KSBN and 16z at KFWA. Regional radar shows upstream activity
moving east. HiRes guidance brings this across terminals today
with some embedded tsra possible. Some uncertainty exists for
later this afternoon and tonight with respect to cigs and vis.
Guidance hinting at some IFR cigs and VIS with fog and stratus
development. For now kept conditions MVFR.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for



LONG TERM...Murphy

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