Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
156 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Issued at 154 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Warmer temperatures will be in store starting Thursday as a warm
front approached the region and brings a chance of showers with it
Thursday night. By Friday high temperatures will be well into the
60s with a few spots possibly reaching 70. The weekend outlook
calls for several chances for showers but temperatures near or
above normal for late March.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Large area of high pressure was centered over the arrowhead of MN
early this morning while a moisture starved short wave was
rotating through the Great Lakes. A surface trough was
accompanying the short wave and was responsible for some gusty
winds early this morning along with reinforced shot of cold air.
High pressure will continue to build southeast and should provide
the area with mostly sunny skies and light winds but temperatures
well below late March normals. Highs expected to only reach the
upper 30s to lower 40s today with 850mb temps in the -5C to -9C
range. Temps may overperform by a few degrees with the full sun
and light winds which we have seen several times this winter and
early Spring with lack of snow cover and near surface
superadiabatic lapse rates.

Surface high will slide southeast to Mid Atlantic states by early
Thursday. Return flow and warm air advection will begin overnight
with some increase in high level clouds in the west. However...still
expect another cold night with lows well into the 20s. Far eastern
areas still under influence of high with light winds to drop into
upper teens.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Long term pattern still looks active with several chances for
rain during the period but temperatures closer to normal or above
normal with large scale pattern change underway.

Warm front and associated short wave to approach the region Thursday
afternoon and move through Thursday night. Increasing low level jet
and theta E surge should lead to shower chances as early as Thursday
afternoon and evening with best chances during the night. Some
similar looking parameters to this past Sunday night/Monday morning
with 30+ kt bulk shear and PWAT values over an inch. Mid level lapse
rates not as steep and MUCAPE not as high but this could certainly
change over next few runs as it did earlier this week. Opted to
hold out mention of thunder for now to stay collaborated but
certainly could see some elevated convection develop with this

Friday still looking primarily dry and warm but enough low to mid
level moisture in models to keep mostly cloudy going. Warm sectors
often mix leading to more sun than expected and if this occurs temps
would soar several more degrees than current forecast indicates.

Good model agreement that parent upper low will slowly drift across
central US later this week and lift northeast to near Chicago by
Sunday night while weakening. This will keep local area in warm
sector with clouds and rain chances for the weekend. Plenty of
residual low level moisture hangs around into early next week with
weak short waves so pcpn chances continue with seasonably mild temps
through end of period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Strong subsidence will keep bring little more than high clouds to
the area for the second half of the period.




SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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