Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
500 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the area
this morning, with the activity ending from west to east this
afternoon. Dry conditions are then expected tonight and Monday
before rain chances increase again during the middle of the week.
Temperatures will be cool Wednesday with clouds and rains with
highs only in the lower 60s. Warmer weather is expected by the
weekend with highs well into the 70s and possibly into the 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

The cold front will move across the area today, bringing an end to
the showers and storms. Some storms are possible, but the storms are
not expected to reach severe limits given limited instability.
Little additional rainfall is expected over the areas that had
heavier rain last night.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

After a break in the rainy weather Monday, another round of rain is
expected during the middle of the week as a strong impulse drops
into the long wave pattern over eastern North America. For this
package, have favored a GFS solution of an upper low cutting off
around or north of the Ohio River Wednesday night. Rainfall
amounts from this next system could range from half an inch to an
inch and a half by Thursday morning. It looks like temperatures
will be held in the low 60s Wednesday given clouds and rain. The
upper level winds should become more southwest by late in the week
and allow temperatures to rise well into the 70s and possibly
into the 80s this upcoming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Complex of showers and thunderstorms which formed in association
with strong low level theta-e advection and at the nose of upper
level speed max have progressed east-northeast of the terminals
early this morning. Additional isolated showers are developing to
the north of retreating warm frontal boundary with a few hit and
miss showers/storms possible through 09Z. A broken line of
showers/isolated storms has filled in along cool frontal across
northern/central Illinois, and additional precip may affect
terminals in the 09Z-12Z timeframe. Weak gradient ahead of the
front will also pose some fog risk, particularly at KSBN in the
pre-dawn hours this morning. Otherwise, IFR/MVFR conditions this
morning should give way to VFR cigs behind the front with some
west-southwest gusts into the 15 to 20 knot range possible this




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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