Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
DROP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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