Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 130000
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT
ALONG WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROUTE
30. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
AND DEEPEN BUT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AN BAND OF RAIN LOCATED FROM NE MISSOURI
INTO SE WISCONSIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD
IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AREA SHOULD
BEGIN TO ENTER FAR NW AREAS TOWARDS 00Z AND EXPAND EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. GREATEST CONCENTRATION/HIGHEST QPF SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF ROUTE 6 BUT STILL THINK MOST EVERYONE
WILL SEE AT LEAST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS
FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON UPSTREAM TRENDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
THE PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN IN MOST AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LK MI WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL TAKE SHAPE AS H-85 DELTA T`S APPROACH 20 WITH OVER 700 J/KG
OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE. CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY LIGHTING STRIKE BUT
HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE FOR NOW. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50. A FEW OF THE MODELS HINT AT LOWS MORE IN THE MID
40S ESPECIALLY NW BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT DROP SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE.

LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE
TOLL ROAD INTO THE FIRST PART OF SAT MORNING. THINGS SHOULD WIND
DOWN QUICKLY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...DEEPER MSTR DEPARTS
AND INVERSIONS CRASH. HAVE KEPT HIGHS ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH
BUST POTENTIAL ON THE MODERATE SIDE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY NOT
CLIMBING OUT OF THE 50S DESPITE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND AT LEAST
A PARTIAL INFLUENCE FROM MID SEPTEMBER SUN. WILL DEFER TO MID
SHIFT TO LOOK AT CLEARING BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD/BROAD TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LOOKS TO
BE MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS CORRIDOR OF MODEST MID LEVEL
CVA/ASCENT/STRENGTHENING UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATES THROUGH. MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX ANTICIPATED OTHERWISE AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES IN NW FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CONTINUED SIMILAR ALBEIT FASTER ONSET OF RAFL OVERNIGHT PER RADAR
AND LATEST RUC/18 UTC NAM12/HRRR3KM TRENDS. NEAR IFR MET
CONDITIONS INVOF KSBN...THOUGH CONTD SLIGHTLY OPTIMISTIC IN 06-12
UTC TIMEFRAME...CERTAINLY FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS MET.
LESSER CHC AT KFWA WITH MAJORITY OF LIFT/SHRA COVERAGE REMAINING
NORTH OF AIRFLD...ASSOCIATED WITH MID TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX TRACK
THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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