Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 271944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...THEN DRYING OUT ON THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE 40S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDE BREADTH OF MOISTURE LAID OUT ALONG/S OF I70 CORRIDOR WITH
8-10 G/KG MIXING RATIOS TAPPED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED CENTRAL PLAINS VORTEX. NARROWING WARM SECTOR PINCHED OFF
SOUTH OF CWA AS SURFACE OCCLUSAL PROCESS CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.
STILL 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE SUFFICIENT FOR TOKEN SLIGHT CHC TSRA AS
BANDED SHRA LIFTS/FILLS ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
CONTS TO FILL ON THU AS IT LIFTS NEWD THEN EWD TO UPR MS VLY/INTO
WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES. SUSPECT ORPHANED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /AFTER
MID LVL DRY SLOT WRAPS INTO IN/IL THU AM/ TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND NOMINAL SHRA CHCS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS ESPCLY NORTHERN CWA ON THU ANTICIPATING
THICK CLOUD COVER/E-NERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. REX BLOCK WILL BE SET UP TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PROVINCES OF CANADA WHILE PARADE OF UPPER
LOWS MIGRATE OUT OF SOUTHWEST CONUS UNDERCUTTING THIS RIDGING.

FIRST WAVE WILL BE WEAKENING AND OPENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS WAVE AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT
OVERNIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR FRIDAY AND WILL STICK WITH TRANSITION FROM CLOUDY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. STILL A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH SATURDAY AS SECOND UPPER
LOW IN SOUTHWEST CONUS GETS EJECTED AND REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
UNDER BLOCKING RIDGE. IN THIS OFTEN REPEATED PATTERN A THETA E
SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET WHICH SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY EASTERLY FLOW
SATURDAY TO INITIALLY EAT AWAY AT PCPN SHIELD BUT STRONGER SURGE
LATER IN THE DAY SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY LOWER LEVELS. REMNANT
WEAKENING UPPER LOW TO THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY KEEPING LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES NEXT WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING A
STRONG SHORT WAVE STRAIGHT OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON EASTERN SIDE OF LARGE RIDGE. THIS CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN
LAKES LEADING TO COOL AND WET PATTERN. GFS HAS LESS ENERGY COMING
SOUTH AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW OUT OF THE WEST INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW WILL STAY WITH SUPERBLEND ENSEMBLE APPROACH UNTIL BETTER
AGREEMENT IS SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MID LEVEL VORTEX TO LIFT NE IN TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH BAND OF SHRA/ISOLD TSRA LIFTING INTO NRN INDIANA ALONG WITH
CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR RANGE. LINGERING MOISTURE ONCE PRECIP
HAS CLEARED WILL LIKELY AFFORD AT LEAST FUELING/ALTERNATE CIGS
INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


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