Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 152255
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
655 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry through the weekend, slight chance of showers on
  Saturday night mainly east of US-69.

- Turning colder starting Sunday with highs Monday failing to rise
  out of the 30s.

- Light snow showers on Monday, then warming trend and dry
  weather returns through Thursday morning before another rain
  system arrives for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Much quieter weather has arrived and mostly dry conditions this
weekend expected outside of light rain showers mainly east of
US-69 overnight Saturday with a weak cold front skirting the
area. This cold front is associated with a low pressure system
centered over Ontario, Canada and the related trough pushes
southward into the Midwest on Sunday. Highs in the 50s and 60s
on Saturday will turn markedly colder by Sunday with Sundays
lows near freezing and highs only in the upper 30s and low 40s.

As the trough axis settles further south into the area further
cooling will envelop the area with lows Monday morning in the
upper 20s and highs remaining in the 30s across the CWA.
Gusty northwesterly flow (gusts around 25 mph) on Monday will
allow for some lake enhanced snow to develop and most areas
should see some light snow showers with accumulations mainly
less than an inch, however areas closer to the lake could see up
to an inch or two especially in northern Berrien and Cass
County in MI. With relatively warm ground now in place any
ground accumulations should be rather shortlived.

By Tuesday, slight ridging across the central CONUS will begin
to push eastward bringing a return to drier conditions and a
warming trend will commence with a return of highs in the mid to
upper 40s and even some low 50s for the southwestern portions
of the CWA.

Thursday morning with a more zonal flow aloft in place through
Friday, mostly cloudy and dreary conditions will prevail
bringing an increase in light rain showers to the area for the
end of the work week along with highs in the lower 50s. Ridging
does look to return by Saturday once again bringing drier and
less cloudy conditions to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 651 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Tranquil TAFs to start due to high pressure centered over
Michigan. Time-height cross sections are hinting at a chance of
stratus developing prior to sunrise; low confidence.

A deepening low over Ontario sends a cold front through the
Great Lakes on Saturday. As a result, wind speeds will be on
the increase toward 12z with gusts to follow. A wind shift to
the northwest occurs at KFWA just outside (or right at) the end
of this TAF period. Can`t completely rule out some light rain
along the cold front, especially at KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Brown


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