Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 210215
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
915 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 645 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Cloudy skies and areas of fog can be expected to continue
tonight along with chances of light rain and areas of drizzle. Some
locally dense fog is a possibility across extreme northern Indiana
and southern lower Michigan through early portions of the
overnight hours. Temperatures will rise through the 40s tonight,
with high temperatures on Saturday ranging from the lower to upper
50s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Based on latest observational trends and expected trends during
the overnight hours, will be issuing a dense fog advisory for
southern lower Michigan counties. Vsbys have trended down to one
quarter to one half mile across much of far northern portions of
the forecast area this evening. Some temporary improvement is
anticipated late this evening into the early overnight hours, but
additional areas of dense fog are expected to form overnight as
warm front approaches the area. Vsbys should improve steadily
during the mid morning hours Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Very mild and moist air was spreading northeast into the forecast
area with temperatures rising near 20 degrees above normal. Areas of
fog had somewhat dissipated through early this afternoon, although
visibilities were still around a mile over far southern Lower
Michigan during the middle of this afternoon. Have decided against a
dense fog advisory tonight. Fog should redevelop, but the latest
high res WPC runs and conditional climatology support most
visibilities falling to around 1 mile. However, locally lower
visibilities are likely. Temperatures should be steady or slowly
rise tonight, so roads should be just wet with no ice expected.
Highs Saturday should climb into the 50`s Saturday and may top 60
degrees over southeast areas. Record highs at South Bend and Ft
Wayne are in the low to mid 60s. Skies should remain cloudy or
mostly cloudy with light precipitation possible, but heavy rain is
not expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Overall, a very mild pattern for the latter half of January
will persist through the middle of next week. Some rain is
possible Monday as the northwest edge of an upper level system and
associated low pressure area track southeast of the area. Have
raised rain chances Monday over mainly northwest Ohio. Otherwise,
mild conditions with continue through Wednesday with highs in the
40s and 50s. Record warm lows around 45 degrees may be set
Sunday. Temperatures will be turning colder Thursday and Friday as
the upper level trof moves east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

Anomalous low level moisture and approach of a warm front tonight
will result in continued LIFR/IFR conditions with the more
prolonged LIFR/IFR conditions anticipated at KSBN. A couple of
weak sfc troughs noted early this evening, one across extreme
northern Indiana and a second across central Illinois which is
expected to evolve into main warm frontal zone during the
overnight hours/early Saturday. Track of this warm front will keep
greatest threat of LIFR/IFR cigs at KSBN through tonight, although
could tend to see some improvement to IFR or lower end MVFR late
during the overnight hours following warm frontal progression.
Some renewed isentropic lift/low level thetae advection later
tonight in advance of fairly strong upper trough lifting northeast
across mid/upper MS valley should be conducive for additional
patches of light rain/drizzle overnight. Conditions should improve
Saturday morning with warm front to the north of the area,
although lingering inversion could keep MVFR conditions in place
through the day. Some better low level mixing on Saturday should
promote afternoon south gusts into the 10 to 15 knot range.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ077>081.

OH...NONE.
LM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili


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