Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281730
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area today
as a weak cold front moves through. High pressure will build into
the Great Lakes behind the front providing dry weather tonight
through Tuesday. Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s,
except a little cooler than that near Lake Michigan. Lows tonight
will be in the lower to middle 60s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Isolated storms across west central portions of the forecast area
diminished early this morning likely in association with
weakening/veering of low level jet. Upper level trough working
east-northeast across the Great Lakes will allow for diffuse
frontal boundary/moisture axis to stall or just very slowly sag
south across central portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
With bulk of forcing will remain well north of the area...not
expecting significant coverage to afternoon redevelopment and will
maintain 20-30 PoPs from previous forecast. Some weak to moderate
instability is expected through the afternoon, particularly across
southeast third of the area but severe weather is not expected due
to weak shear/forcing. Temps appear to be in good shape with
perhaps just a small upward adjustment possible in the northwest
based on current trends. Updated ZFP will be sent by 1515Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Wk cdfnt over mi/nrn il managing to spark a few showers/tstms just
nw of our cwa attm. This diffuse front should move slowly se
across our cwa today and is expected to provide sufficient low
level convergence combined with right entrance region upr jet
dynamics for isolated to sct showers/tstms over our nw this
morning and se this aftn/eve. Strengthening sfc high behind the
front will move east across lwr mi tonight, advecting drier air
via ne winds into our area allowing for dry conditions overnight which
should persist through Tuesday as the ridge drops slowly se.

Not much change in temps today with dvlpg wk low level
caa counteracted by building heights associated with retrograding
mid atlantic coast ridge. Drier air advecting into the area
tonight should allow for a little cooler temps with lows near
normal in the l-m60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Next cdfnt should be a little more impactful from a
temperature standpoint as upr ridge amplifies over the high
plains allowing nw flow aloft to develop over the grtlks and ne
conus. This front expected to move through the area tue ngt
accompanied by just wk convergence/instability, but again some
right entrance region upr jet dynamics, warranting chc pops in the
vcnty of the front. A large high pressure system will drop se
across the grtlks behind this front thu-fri and to the mid-
atlantic coast sat with a trailing ridge back into the midwest
which should result in contd fair wx across our area in this
timeframe with temps a bit blo normal, but moderating into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

frontal boundary and midlevel trof will be the focus for
convection for the next 3 to 6 hours. this is on the northern
gradient of moisture and axis of instability from KADG-KANQ-KASW
with another axis of instability extending from KHAI-KSBN-KIKK.
With the boundary layer flow from the south and mid-level flow
from the southwest expect this line to remain nearly stationary
for the next few hours. 0-3km shear continues to favor weak
rotation in these showers and cannot rule out funnel clouds.

Given the wind flow...expect to see pronounced outflow boundaries
developing from the line of showers and this would favor
development along the southern and southwestern portion of the
line. Combined with a weak shortwave ejecting from central
Illinois early evening/tonight expect to see additional convective
development to the south of the forecast area overnight.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Lewis


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