Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 141919
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
319 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UNSEASONABLE COLD HAS REPLACED YDAS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH W/24HR
CHGS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES COLDER. ONLY THING KEEPING RECORD
MINS IN CHECK ARE CONTD EXTENSIVE LOW CLD CVR WITHIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLW AND SUSTAINED SFC GRADIENT. TUE NIGHT IS ANOTHER
STORY HWVR.

LTL OF NOTE NR TERM OTHER THAN DEEPENING OF CAA WEDGE WHICH DOES NOT
HIT EQUILIBRIUM UNTIL MID MORNING TOMORROW. DRYSLOT WRAPPING NEWD
UNDERNEATH EJECTING LEAD SW OVR SRN ONTARIO HAD CUTOFF EARLIER SHRA
ACTIVITY HWVR STILL MOIST ENOUGH INVOF OF 850MB FNT TO FOSTER SOME
PATCHY DZ WHICH WILL CONT TO MIGRATE EWD THIS AFTN.

SHRT TERM DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO IF ANYTHING W/SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW
WHICH DRIVES EWD OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE SIMILAR IN SCOPE
ALOFT W/PRIOR GUIDANCE YET CERTAINLY DRIER WEST AND CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OFFER NO PANACEA EITHER
W/GENERALLY FRACTURED/THIN BAND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FM ERN IA SWWD INTO SE KS. HWVR AREA OF ELEVATED CONVN BREAKING OUT
ACRS SWRN AR SOMETHING SVRL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON AND
SUGGEST GENERAL NEWD CONSOLIDATION/EXPANSION THIS EVENING INTO ERN
ZONES. CONSENSUS QPF AXIS ALG/E OF A PORTLAND...DEFIANCE...WAUSEON
LINE SUGGEST SOME IMPACT PROBABLE LT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HWVR SFC TEMP AND UPSTREAM PCPN SHIELD UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MAKING
ANY WWA HIGHLITE DECISIONS AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEFER TO EVENING
SHIFT TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS UPSTREAM.

OTRWS DEEP LYRD SUBSIDENT DRYING FOLLOWS ON TUES W/SKIES CLRG. HWVR
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LL THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH AFTN BFR BREAKING
DOWN AND EVEN W/INSOLATION SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NEAR RECORD/RECORD COLD NIGHT IN STORE TO START THE PERIOD AS LAST
OF THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BEFORE SENDING LOWS
INTO THE LOWER 20S OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS. WHILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FROST/FREEZE THIS FAR NORTH ISN`T NORMALLY AN
ISSUE...SOME BUDDING OF FRUIT BEARING TREES MAY BE UNDERWAY. WITH
LOWS THIS COLD...SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. SOMETHING TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HGTS WILL HELP STEER THIS FEATURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL STALL OUT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT WITH SFC REFLECTION TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS KANSAS AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NO MASSIVE WARM UPS ARE IN STORE AT THIS POINT...850
MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO +2 TO +4 MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. IN
TERMS OF POPS...HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR FRI/FRI NGT BUT HOLDING
SHY OF LIKELY AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST.

RECORD LOWS...
       16TH
SBN    22 (1935)
FWA    24 (1935)

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITHIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLW ALOFT.
SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW DISTURBANCE POSITIONED THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AND SPRT THE DVLPMNT OF A BAND OF SNOW
INVOF OF MID LVL FNTL BNDRY ACRS ERN ZONES THIS EVENING. PD OF IFR
VSBYS IN -RASN/SN LIKELY AT KFWA BUT XPC KSBN WILL HOLD DRY UNDER
LAKE SHADOW. OTRWS STG NWRLY GRADIENT FLW WILL CONT THROUGH THE PD
W/SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


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