Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 302029
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
429 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
MOST AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MICHIGAN TO NEAR 50 INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DEEP MOISTURE FIELD ALONG WITH COGENT I300K ISENTROPIC LIFT
LENDING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT CWA.
BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD OR AT LEAST TRANSITION TO LIGHTER/MORE
SPOTTY RAINFALL TO THEN ENTER SWRN CWA THIS EVE/LIFTING NEWD AS
DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO SWRN UPR GREAT LAKES AND ISENT UVM
DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITH BEST AXIS LIFTING NWD THROUGH MI.
WHILE CWA REMAINS LARGELY ON COLD SIDE OF FRONTAL OCCLUSION AS YET
ANOTHER SLOWLY FILLING MID LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY LIFTS/FILLS FROM
CNTL PLAINS INTO THE SWRN UPR GRTLKS...DID RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THICK IFR STRATUS DECK TO CAP RADIATIVE EFFECTS AND
AT MINIMUM COLD LAYER BECOMES MORE SHALLOW/ESPCLY ACRS SRN CWA.
THIS AREA WILL BODE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. STILL SUSPECT DESTABILIZATION QUITE CONDITIONAL AND
CERTAINTY FOR TSRA NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH. AFFORDED SOME
TEMPORAL/SPATIAL DELINEATION WRT TSRA CHANCES...WITH HIEST CHANCES
21-24 UTC SUN OVER SERN QUARTER CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FINALLY OPEN/SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. LAST
SEVERAL MODEL ITERATIONS HAVE TRENDED LESS SHEARED WITH MORE
FOCUSED ASCENT DURING THIS TIME. AS A RESULT BUMPED POPS UP SUNDAY
EVENING WITH SCT-NUM SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG SE SINKING LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD
SNEAK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN SOUTH
AS NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER ARIZONA SHEARS QUICKLY ENE THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. WITH THAT SAID THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OF A MID
LVL FGEN/PVA RESPONSE TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES...BUT OPTED TO RETAIN OPTIMISTIC (MAINLY
DRY...10-20 POPS) FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLOUDY/COOL
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

BLOCKY PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERIST MID-LATE WEEK AS CUT-OFF UPPER
LOWS EVENTUALLY EMERGES OVER THE EASTERN US AND SOUTHWEST US...WITH
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN ACROSS HIGH PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY IN THIS TRANSITION AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY DROPS SOUTH
FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. COULD EVEN SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY ON WESTERN FRINGE OF CIRCULATION. AS FOR
TEMPS...TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WARMEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING SLIDES IN PRE-FRONTAL...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS RETURNING
THERAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

YET ANOTHER SLOW UPPER LEVEL PLAINS SYSTEM TO LIFT/FILL INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENCE OF
COLD SIDE OF OCCLUDING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO WARRANT DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDS ESPCLY WITH RESPECT TO CIGS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS LIKELY FOR MAJORITY OF OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH
GRADUALLY LIFTING CIGS INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED MIXING
DEPTH.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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