Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 170544

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
144 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 135 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Today will be very warm for mid October and also quite windy. It
will be a mild start to the day with temperatures in the 60s
around daybreak...followed by highs in the lower to middle 80s in
the afternoon. It will remain dry through Tuesday morning but
there is a slight chance for showers Tuesday afternoon. Lows
tonight will be mild once again and remain in the 60s. Highs on
Tuesday will range from the middle 70s across lower Michigan and
far Northern Indiana to the lower 80s over north central Indiana
and northwest Ohio.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Mid/upper level shortwave support shunted well east of cwa into
Lower Great Lakes. Breakdown of low level jet and top/down
stabilization in rain cooled airmass suggests little if any
additional deep convection this afternoon/evening and have pulled
TSRA mention. Focus shifts upstream in epic/strong northeast Pacific
180-200kt upper level jet. Partial energy ejections through
broad/shallow troffing over northern/central Rockies to rapidly
eject multiple surface frontal waves from western plains into
northern Upper Great Lakes into day2. While ample warm air advection
underway tonight, best collocation of mid level lapse rates/deeper
moisture profiles/mid level height falls, suggest convective focus
to be relegated well w-nw of CWA and only maintain some lower end
chance shra pops lifting northeast through CWA per trend to higher
res blends. Warm sector to become well rooted across southern Great
Lakes/CWA by daybreak Monday setting stage for potential record/near
record max temps.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Continued mild in deep warm sector Tue though core of low level
thermal axis shifts a bit farther southeast into Ohio Valley as
midday frontal passage enters far northwest CWA. Continued dry with
initially high low level condensation pressure deficits. Sensible
pops/weather introduced per accepted blend Tue night as frontal wave
moves along/s of I70 corridor. Greater chances for rain event Wed
night into Thu as upstream trof deepens into Mississippi Valley.
Significantly cooler as well as low level frontogenesis per backed n-
nerly flow in rain cooled/stable airmass for latter part of week.
While variance in solutions hereafter continue, slight nod that
overall more progressive pattern to persist and opt for nil
wx/warming trend for next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Conditions have already improved to VFR at terminals with only
MVFR and isolated IFR closer to the IN/OH/MI tri-state corner.
KIWX 88D VWP shows 40 knots in the lowest gate at 2kft from the
southwest. Warm front has basically mixed northward but sfc winds
lagging with a southeast component. Cannot rule out an isolated
shra through daybreak but doubtful per hires guidance and latest
satellite/radar trends. The strong low level winds are creating
LLWS and have added to terminals through mid morning when mixing
improves. This will also help transport stronger winds and gusts
to sfc. Gusts to 30 knots possible and may need to bump wind
speeds with 12z issuance. Otherwise VFR. Could see LLWS conditions
again this evening but sfc winds looks to remain strong with mixed
low levels so did not include at this time.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ043-046.



LONG TERM...Murphy

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