Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 231709

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
109 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 103 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Temperatures will peak around 70 degrees this afternoon as high
pressure over the Great Lakes keeps winds light and skies clear.
It will not be quite as cold tonight with lows in the lower 40s.
Even warmer temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday with
highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and middle to upper 70s
Tuesday. A chance for showers and thunderstorms returns by
Wednesday with several chances for rain late in the week and next


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 817 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Warm and dry this period as expansive sfc ridge overhead persists.
Low level thermal trough will continue to moderate especially on
Monday and no doubt aided by late April sun. Will bump blends both
today and Monday as temps should over achieve much like Sunday aftn.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 817 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Unsettled/stormy pattern shaping up esp mid to late period as well advertised
pac wave train emerges into the pac nw. While specific model based vagaries
still persist general theme remains intact with lead sw ejecting through the
upper midwest Tue. Ewd frontal progression has waffled considerably for several
days but trending guidance leans wwd in reflection to blocking closed low
pivoting up the mid atlantic coast. Thus see all the more reason to finally cut
out pops entirely sans far west late Tue night.

Secondary more energetic sw digs quickly in behind into wrn MO by late Wed and
will drive cold front through the area Wed night with what should be a widespread
rain event for much of the area given implied vigorous frontal wave lifting up
the boundary Wed evening and may also entail some severe risk Wed evening given
strong undirectional flow within modest low level rtn theta-e ridge.

Brief ridging/cooling follows Thu into Fri ahead of wwd significant deep layered
cyclone development across CO Fri night. Ewd flood of significant gulf moisture
influx expected and should ignite ewd reach of returning warm frontal zone through
much of the OH valley before it mixes nwd through the lakes Sat. Beyond that
timing and placement of this newd ejecting 3rd deep system remains in flux with
as yet still significant spread indicated toward DY8 (Sunday).

Regardless the entirety of the period will feature well above normal temps
sans post frontal cold advection regime Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

High pressure will keep VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Winds should remain under 10 knots.




LONG TERM...Fisher

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