Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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453
FXUS63 KIWX 210835
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
435 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Areas of fog over northeast Indiana, northwest Ohio into southern
Lower Michigan will lift by late morning. Highs today will be in
the mid to upper 40s. Chilly weather is just ahead with lows
tonight and Wednesday night falling to near 20 degrees. Highs
Wednesday will only be in the middle to upper 30s. Temperatures
will rise much above normal to around 70 degrees Friday with rain
chances increasing into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Areas of fog had formed overnight in the wake of the upper level
disturbances accompanied with rainfall yesterday. Some clearing
with an initial weak flow will cause a delayed clearing of the
fog. Have issued a dense fog advisory until mid morning for
northeast Indiana, far south central Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. Northwest flow will increase later today accompanied by much
colder and drier air that will spread southeast as a large high
pressure area advances southeast out of the Canadian interior.
Temperatures will fall to around 20 degrees tonight and Wednesday
night with highs Wednesday only in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

There will be a major pattern change late this week as the upper
level longwave trof becomes established over the western CONUS.
Energy in the form of short wave trofs or upper level disturbances
will eject northeast into the Midwest and be accompanied by mild
and wet weather. Thermal profiles indicate all rain, so travel
issues are not anticipated at this time. However, given increasing
moisture available, a period or two of heavy rain is possible.
Will continue to mention minor flooding possible in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook. Raised highs 2 to 3 degrees Friday given a very
warm airmass with 850 mb temps rising close to 12C.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Near term concern lies with dense fog/low stratus over ern zones
including the KFWA vcnty as lamp guidance trends have literally
tanked over the last 3 hours. Prior amendment still holds and kept
through 09Z per initial poor boundary layer mixing. However much
drier air (tds in the mid 30s) over nw IN/sw MI should make inroads
thereafter as low level flow backs to nwrly. 09Z tentative grouping
indicating improvement to mvfr conditional on this occurring and
will be reaccess with time.

Otherwise increasing subsidence induced drying will overtake the
area this morning as high clouds increase yielding vfr conditions
through the remainder of the period.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ006>009-
     017-018-024>027-032>034.

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ079>081.

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-
     004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T


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