Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 241637
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1237 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S... WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVERNIGHT TO THE 40S OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE CANADA/NE CONUS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING AT NOSE OF LLJ AHEAD OF SHRTWV CROSSING
CO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTN OR THIS EVE AND SPREAD E-NE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WRN GRTLKS. WITH CONTD LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TODAY... WAA SHOULD BE SLOW TO BE REALIZED AT
THE SFC WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 35-40F RANGE. CONTD
LOW LEVEL WAA TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS RISING OVERNIGHT AFTER
A SMALL DIP IN THE EVE... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NE. SOME CONCERN
THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BLO FREEZING ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA
FOR A SHORT PERIOD AS RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT... BUT HELD OFF ADDING
FREEZING RAIN TO THE FCST SINCE TEMPS MARGINAL AND IF FREEZING RAIN
OCCURS AT ALL IT WILL PRBLY BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT...
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING SOME SUNSHINE WILL WARM ROADS TODAY AND
SUB-SFC TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

FIRST WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY DEPARTING THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING FROM
SW TO NE DURING THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES WILL COMMENCE AS
SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WAVE
WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION...BUT MAIN
QUESTION REMAINS CAN ENOUGH MIXING TAKE PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY TO
ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. GUIDANCE HAS ALL
LEANED TOWARDS COLDER ACROSS THE BOARD WITH WARMEST READINGS
CLOSER TO DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SE WHERE THE NEXT WAVE
WILL RIDE. WILL BE RELUCTANTLY LOWERING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BUT
STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS FOR NOW.

AS LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ENTIRE AREA WOULD LOOK
TO GET AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE PRECIP TRENDING LIGHTER TOWARDS THE
NW WITH POTENTIAL FOR A TIGHT CUTOFF. HIGHEST POPS WOULD SEEM TO BE
CLUSTERED ACROSS SE THIRD OF SO FROM MARION TO OTTAWA OHIO WHERE A
HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WILL FALL...TAPERING TO MAYBE A TENTH OR
SO FAR NW. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS
ON FRIDAY BARELY MAKING IT ABOVE FREEZING. SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE
BRIEF WITH SOME MODERATION INTO THE START OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL LOW LEVEL DRY/COOL EASTERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH JUST A GRADUAL
LOWERING/INCREASE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TIME. CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATER TONIGHT AS RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A FAST MOVING/YET VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES OVERSPREADS. DRYING AND GRADUAL MIX UP/OUT OF POST
OCCLUSION STRATUS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WINDS VEER WSW IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MODELED TO TAKE AIM ON THE REGION WED NIGHT-THU
AM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.