Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 162005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
305 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Cool and cloudy conditions will persist through Friday with lows
around 30 and highs on Friday in the mid to upper 40s. Widespread
rain is expected on Saturday. Rainfall amounts around an inch are
expected for most locations with isolated amounts up to around two
inches possible. This could cause minor flooding in low lying and
poor drainage areas. Thunderstorms are also possible but no severe
weather is expected. Some light lake effect snow will then be
possible Sunday morning but little to no accumulation is expected.
Dry and seasonable temperatures are anticipated for next week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Lake effect sprinkles/flurries/drizzle will continue to dissipate
this afternoon as surface ridge axis moves overhead. Expecting a dry
and cool night. Still plenty of cloud cover to contend with but
thermal trough now directly overhead. With current temps only around
40F...suspect lows around 30F are reasonable. Similar conditions
anticipated tomorrow as well but increasing WAA will lead to warmer
afternoon highs (mid/upper 40s). Will still be cloudy and there
could be a stray sprinkle in our far NW late in the day but
primarily dry conditions will persist until the Fri night period.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Main focus of forecast is on next, highly dynamic, midlevel wave
crossing the area on Sat. Coupled upper jet structure with 150+ kt
jet streak on the southern wing will support strong deformation/fgen
directly over our CWA with rapid cyclogenesis over the eastern Great
Lakes as trough deepens and self-development processes quickly ramp
up. The main story for us will be heavy rain. Ample moisture being
efficiently advected northward on 60+ kt LLJ with 850mb dewpoints
near 10C and PW values around 1.25 inches. Forecast soundings even
suggest some elevated static instability given this aggressive
moisture push that could support a few (non-severe) rumbles of
thunder. Perhaps most concerning is the orientation and location of
main baroclinic zone as well as degree of forcing. Light rain in
warm sector will begin Fri night but heaviest rain is expected
midday Sat as sharp trough axis approaches and left exit deformation
really lights up. Most locations are likely to see at least an inch
and up to around 2 inches is possible wherever the main fgen band
sets up given degree of moisture/instability and forcing. Truly
heavy rain won`t last long and most rivers are running relatively
low but do expect some minor flooding in low-lying/poor drainage
areas. Will just mention in HWO for now as impacts should remain on
the low side. Winds will also gust to around 30 mph on the backside
Sat evening.

Colder air does filter south Sat night but parent trough remains
very progressive and deep-layer moisture is stripped away much
faster than low level CAA. Expect little (if any) mixed precip until
Sun morning when lake effect ramps up with a secondary shortwave
passing. Not a great lake effect setup either though. Synoptic
support is weak and transient with inversion heights hovering around
6 kft and some dry air entrainment concerns with a NW fetch/
multiband setup. Some light snow possible 09-18Z but winds quickly
back by late Sun. Warm/wet ground will make accumulations difficult
but if a more organized band of convergence can develop...could see
snowfall rates high enough for some brief accums on grassy/elevated
surfaces north of US-30.

Rest of the long term relatively quiet with seasonable temps and no
good chances of precip noted through Thanksgiving.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

Cyclonic flow and strong fetch across Lake Michigan will keep
stratus and lingering showers through the first 6 to 8 hours of
the terminals with MVFR cigs prevailing. As the gradient relaxes
and ridging builds into the region expect to see gradual lifting
of the cloud deck and improved visibility. IFR conditions to
prevail after 8Z across the entire region.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.




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