Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 272240
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
540 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA TONIGHT. EXPECT SLICK
ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BANDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG I-94 BETWEEN BENTON HARBOR AND NEW
BUFFALO AND ALONG I 80-90 WEST OF I-69. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT HAD BEEN WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
ALONG THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS MOVING INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND HAD GENERALLY WEAKENED WHERE THE BAND
HAD MOVED OVER LAND. THIS BAND HAD PRODUCED UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
BETWEEN LUDINGTON AND MUSKEGON. OTHER SNOW BANDS WERE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAKE NORTHWEST OF BERRIEN COUNTY WERE DELTA T VALUES HAD
RISEN TO AROUND 20C. THERE WAS GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH IN THE THE
CLOUD LAYER PRODUCING LARGE FLAKES THAT HAD FALLEN EARLIER TODAY. AM
PLANNING TO KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR BERRIEN...CASS AND ST JOSEPH COUNTIES IN
LOWER MICHIGAN. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS
WINDS BACK TO THE WEST CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DIMINISH.

ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DIMINISHING...12KM NAM SUPPORTS A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES PER 290K SURFACE AND MIXING RATIOS RISE TO
NEAR 3 G/KG. THEREFORE...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

RELATIVELY BENIGN SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDERWAY FRI NIGHT. BEST FORCING
FOR ANY PCPN LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT DID MAINTAIN A VERY
LOW CHANCE POP FAR NORTHEAST. IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION ON TAP
FOR SATURDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE TEENS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE WARMING WILL STILL BE TEMPERED AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY STRONG INVERSION AND INDICATIONS OF LOW CLOUD DECK
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SHOULD FEEL MUCH WARMER WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 40S AND RUN AT LOWER 50S MOST PLAUSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHWEST WHERE WARMER THERMAL RIDGE AND POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AND CLEARING ARE BEST. A WARM SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LOWS
STAYING IN THE 40S. 850MB TEMPS COOL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE
COLD FRONT BUT VERY WARM START TO THE DAY SHOULD HELP MAX TEMPS
REACH THE 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN
CHANCES REMAIN LOW BUT LIGHT SHOWERS OR QPF STILL INDICATED BY
MODELS SO AGAIN ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO RIDE.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES. COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF
AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN NEAR
FRONT...AND A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEHIND
FRONT MONDAY. GEM AND ECMWF SHOW A REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR
COMING IN MID WEEK WHILE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG LOW IN THE PLAINS AND
SURGES A WARM FRONT NORTH. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME LIES CLOSER TO
ECMWF AND GEM SO TRENDED FORECAST VARIABLES IN THIS DIRECTION.
GFS SOLUTION WOULD INDICATE A CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAINFALL WHILE
ECMWF/GEM WOULD BE COLD WITH SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A SINGLE BAND HAD FORMED NEAR THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
GIVEN EXTRAPOLATION AND MODEL DATA...EXPECT THIS BAND WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO MULTIPLE BANDS AND MOVE INLAND OVER FAR
SW LOWER MICH. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
AT SBN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS WINDS BACK.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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