Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230811
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
411 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions as it moves
away from our area today. A warm front will move through the area
tonight resulting in chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. A couple of low pressure systems will move slowly
northeast from the southern Plains across our area over the
weekend and early next week causing occasional showers. High
temperatures will be near normal in upper 40s and lower 50s
today, and above normal over the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Dry airmass associated with strong sfc high movg se from the lwr
grtlks this morning will allow for another dry day. Mid clouds
will be on the increase as low/mid level theta-e advection
increase behind departing ridge. By this eve, the moisture return
and isent lift may be sufficient for sct showers to develop and
given steep mid level lapse a few tstms not out of the question.
Contd to lean toward cool side of guidance for today`s highs given
incrsg mid clouds and unseasonably cold start to the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Upr level trof movg through the west coast states this morning
will transition to a srn stream split flow system by the time it
reaches the plains Fri. Upr level ridging in advance of this
system will move across our area Friday providing dry/warmer
conditions. Developing gulf moisture tap should advect low clouds
into our area by Friday morning which is expected to limit diurnal
heating. Still, given h85 temps around 10c and decent gradient
mixing, highs in the upr 60s still look achievable, with lower to
middle 70s psbl if low levels remain unsaturated per drier ECMWF
solution.

Upr level trof will move east from the srn plains across the lwr MS
valley saturday while wk nrn stream shrtwv crosses the upr grtlks.
Moist airmass with precip water >1" should be in place over our area
by this time so despite relatively wk forcing, expect ocnl showers
will impact the area over the weekend as these systems move through
the region. Wk ridging will follow bringing dry conditions Sunday
night and Monday, though wk wind fields should result in mostly
cloudy skies contg over the area.

Another split flow shrtwv will move into the srn plains Sunday
and across the Oh valley early next week bringing showers back
into the area by Monday night. Medium range models in decent
agreement on nrn stream shrtwv closing off over sern Canada Wed while
next ern pacific system cuts off over the swrn u.s. or srn plains
with upr level ridging in between providing fair wx across our
area with temps near normal for late March.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

VFR conditions assured through the forecast period. Crossover dewpoint
temperatures in the lower/middle teens to assure no issues with
morning br. Surface flow to veer/increase to SSE as surface ridge
moves into Delmarva by end of forecast period. As surface
temperatures cool low level flow ramps and becomes elevated by
late in the forecast period sufficient for LLWS inclusion at both
KSBN/KFWA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Murphy


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