Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 032056
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EST WED FEB 3 2016

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN OVER NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

UPR TROUGH AXIS UPSTREAM ACRS WI WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. ATTENDANT EWD SLIDE OF CAA WING WILL SPURN LL THERMAL
TROUGH OVR LK MI TO PRODUCE NMRS SHSN GENERALLY TOLL ROAD NORTH
THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION PSBL.
OTRWS LK EFFECT SHSN FAR NORTH WILL DWINDLE THU AM AS DRY
ENTRAINMENT ENSUES AND THERMAL TROUGH WKNS IN RESPONSE TO WK WAA.
WILL FOLLOW W/WARMER MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS GIVEN CLDS TONIGHT AND THU
AFTN AS INSOLATION PROVIDES A BOOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM VERY QUIET WITH PREDOMINATELY RIDGING
ALOFT. A SPLIT TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A
FEW MODEL RUNS STILL TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT QPF. VERY LITTLE
CVA FORCING LOCALLY THOUGH AND SUSPECT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY DRY. DID HOWEVER LEAVE IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO MAINTAIN SOME CONSISTENCY WITH INHERITED
FORECAST. TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH STEADY...ALBEIT
WEAK...WAA.

MORE INTERESTING STORY IN LONG TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER AIR
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LARGELY MERIDIONAL 150 KT UPPER JET
WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF
RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIGHT BUT
WILL SIGNAL THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF POLAR LOW AND LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF STILL OFFERING SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THE
DEGREE AND LONGEVITY OF ARCTIC AIR. FOR NOW HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE WHICH HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S ON WEDNESDAY
AND AROUND 10F WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

TAIL END OF UPR TROUGH FM THE WRN LAKES SWWD INTO THE LWR MS
VALLEY WILL CONT EWD ACRS THE TERMINALS NR TERM. XPC SCT SHRA TO
DVLP ALG LEADING SFC TROUGH TWD LT AFTN AND CONTG INTO THIS
EVENING AS LL CAA RAMPS. FVRBL VEERING IN PRESENCE OF DEEMED
ADEQUATE LK AGGREGATE TROUGHING THIS EVENING SHLD ALSO FVR A FEW
BANDS OF LK EFFECT SHSN INVOF KSBN TERMINAL. OTRWS VFR CIGS TO
START WILL DWINDLE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR BY EVENING ASSOCD/W STEADILY
INCREASING THERMAL INVERSION UNDERNEATH GROWING CAA WEDGE ALG W/A
BRIEF PD OF POTENTIAL IFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN SHSN AT KSBN THIS
EVENING.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.