Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 151423
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO EXPAND/INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING.

RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS (MOSTLY FLURRIES/VRY LGT
SNOW) ARE BEING REPORTED. RADAR SHOWING SOME DECENT INLAND
PENETRATION IN SOME SPOTS WITH A FEW MORE ROBUST SNOWSHOWERS (25
TO 30 DBZ). BY IN LARGE...THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
APPEARING BETWEEN ANY SNOWSHOWERS. A DUSTING TO AT MOST LOCALLY A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE WENT WITH SCT
SNOWSHOWER MENTION MOST AREAS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN...BRINGING A LIKELY DEMISE (OR SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY) TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. ELEVATED SURFACES WILL
REMAIN SLICK IN SPOTS DUE TO MELTING AND RE-FREEZING OF BOTH
RECENT SNOWFALL AND ANY NEW SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING
ROAD CONDITIONS.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND MAINLY THIS MORNING AT SBN. DRY OTHERWISE
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KTS (GUSTS NEAR 20KT) BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. HIGH END MVFR-LOW VFR STRATO
CU DECK WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCATTERING VFR CU DECK BY LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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