Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
784
FXUS63 KIWX 300539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINOR GRID UPDATE DONE TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AFTER 12Z. LEFT A TOKEN SLIGHT CHC PRIOR TO 12Z FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL WAIT TILL AFTER
12Z...POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THE 15 TO 18Z WINDOW. ALSO ADJUSTED
SKY COVER SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR LOSS OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT STILL
PLENTY OF CIRRUS TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SET IN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODED OUT WITH NE FLOW.
THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE IN STORE WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE 15
TO 18Z WINDOW AND THEN CONTINUING DOWN FROM THERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT
WORTH A MENTION FOR NOW.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS LOW APPROACHES. FINALLY...WHILE A THREAT FOR THUNDER
MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.