Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
640 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Issued at 459 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the area
this morning, with the activity ending from west to east this
afternoon. Dry conditions are then expected tonight and Monday
before rain chances increase again during the middle of the week.
Temperatures will be cool Wednesday with clouds and rains with
highs only in the lower 60s. Warmer weather is expected by the
weekend with highs well into the 70s and possibly into the 80s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

The cold front will move across the area today, bringing an end to
the showers and storms. Some storms are possible, but the storms are
not expected to reach severe limits given limited instability.
Little additional rainfall is expected over the areas that had
heavier rain last night.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 454 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

After a break in the rainy weather Monday, another round of rain is
expected during the middle of the week as a strong impulse drops
into the long wave pattern over eastern North America. For this
package, have favored a GFS solution of an upper low cutting off
around or north of the Ohio River Wednesday night. Rainfall
amounts from this next system could range from half an inch to an
inch and a half by Thursday morning. It looks like temperatures
will be held in the low 60s Wednesday given clouds and rain. The
upper level winds should become more southwest by late in the week
and allow temperatures to rise well into the 70s and possibly
into the 80s this upcoming weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Primary aviation weather forecast concerns will focus on the first
6 hours of this forecast valid period.

Vsbys have improved at terminals over past hour or two as warm
frontal boundary continues to retreat northward. With abundant low
level moisture lingering in advance of the cold front, potential
still exists for at least few more hours of tempo IFR cigs. The
combination of the upper trough and cold front may give rise to
low coverage showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm through
early afternoon, but thunder confidence is too low for inclusion
given waning instability profiles. Winds to shift to the west
behind the front today with deepening mixed layer possibly
supporting gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. VFR conditions
and west southwest winds to continue tonight.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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