Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 211838

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

High pressure to the northwest continues to nudge in with dry
weather expected into tonight. Temperatures will feel cooler
tonight as they drop towards 20 degrees. Quiet weather continues
into Wednesday and Thursday as the high passes by to the north. A
warm front then pushes through later Thursday with showers and
warming temperatures. Wednesday`s highs will only be in the 30s,
but will trend warmer into Friday with highs around 70. The
weekend looks occasionally wet with above average temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An upper trough digging through the Great Lakes tonight and the
Northeast US tomorrow will provide the local area with a glancing
blow of much colder/drier air. Weak shortwave will move across the
region late this aftn/early evening bringing only a brief increase
in mid level clouds and possibly a few sprinkles White County IN
se to Grant County IN. Skies should trend mostly clear overnight
into Wednesday as dry/subsident airmass overspreads in advance of
a strong low level anticyclone drifting southeast into the Great
Lakes. This large arctic high will shift off to the east by
Thursday resulting in milder/seasonable temps.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

An upper level trough just off the West Coast today will eventually
emerge into the Southern High Plains by Friday, then wobble/close
off northeast into the Missouri Valley Saturday and the lower Great
Lakes by Sunday. The result will be above normal temperatures and
periodic chances for showers.

Leading shortwave energy topping the upper ridge axis in tandem with
steep mid level lapse rates and initial short of warm/moist advection
may be enough to touch of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder
Thursday night. Warm sector then likely builds in for Friday with
dry conditions and highs reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. 12z
guidance trended slower with the upper low suggesting dry conditions
could linger into Friday night/Saturday morning. The periods most
likely to see occasional rain showers will be late Saturday into
Sunday with the upper low/cyclonic flow/deeper moisture. Some
embedded thunder even possible during this time under cool pocket
aloft (mainly aftn), though confidence/coverage remains too low
for a thunder mention in the grids at this fcst range. Brief
drying expected later Sunday night into early Monday before the
next in a series of Four Corners shortwaves brings renewed rain
chances back into the forecast early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Cold air advection continues through the region as high pressure in
Canada continues to slowly nudge in. As such, dry air should keep
VFR conditions around both TAF sites even as a wave dives south of
the region today. Light breezes up to 20 kts are possible especially
at SBN with the momentum transfer during the heat of the day.
Dry/VFR conditions continue overnight and into Wednesday as the high
pressure center passes by to the north.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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