Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260806
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...AND WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID
80S BY FRIDAY. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SRN STREAM SW OVR NE OK WILL DAMPEN NEWD
THROUGH ERN IA TDA. HWVR UNLIKE YDA UPR JET STREAK ALIGNED A BIT
FURTHER EWD W/A MORE ROBUST HGT FALLS OVERSPREADING CWA THIS AFTN.
UPSTREAM CLD EVOLUTION SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP
THROUGH MORNING W/AT LEAST A FVRBL YET LIMITED SFC BASED
DESTABILIZATION RESPONSE RESULTING. EWD EXTENT OF MORE SIG SYNOPTIC
SCALE FORCING MUCH IN DOUBT HWVR POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION ORGANIZATION TO CONVN ESP SHLD BTR THAN XPCD
INSTABILITY DVLP.

REGARDLESS OF OUTCOME...FOLLOWING DRYSLOT AND INCREASING MID LVL
SUBSIDENCE QUICK TO FOLLOW THIS EVENING AND OTHER THAN A LINGERING
SHOWER GENERALLY EAST HAVE DROPPED POPS AFT 06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THERE ARE LOTS OF CHALLENGES THIS LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE LONG WAVE
TROF BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AFTER EJECTING A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROFS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THESE
SYSTEMS...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ALBEIT RELATIVELY STABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO
LIMIT CONVECTION. ALSO...SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
INTERCEPT MOISTURE FLUX AND LIMIT VERY DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTH. OVERALL...THE AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS HAS
HAD ASTOUNDING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...WITH OKLAHOMA CITY
APPROACHING 20 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS MONTH...WELL ABOVE THE
RECORD RAINFALL FOR ANY MONTH IN THIS CITY. WITH SO MUCH RECENT RAIN
UPSTREAM... THERE WILL LIKELY BE RECYCLING OF MOISTURE AS REFLECTED
IN RESEARCH AS WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1993 FLOODS. KEPT THESE FACTORS
IN MIND WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER AND STORMS
WEDNESDAY AS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF AN EJECTING UPPER LEVEL
TROF SHOULD BE SE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROF OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS
WILL PLAY OUT...BUT FOR NOW...RAIN CHANCES AT LEAST AT SOME POINT
LOOK REAL FAVORABLE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF INTERACTS WITH THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...KEPT TEMPERATURES WARM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY WELL INTO THE 80S AS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS MEX FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO POTENTIAL SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION AHD
OF EJECTING CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SW TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF NE OK.
ATTM PUTTING A LOT OF STOCK IN NR TERM HIGHRES GUIDANCE INCLUDING
HRRR AND SPC WRF WHICH BOTH DVLP AN ARC OF CONVN TWD 18Z ACRS NW IN.
SECONDARY CONCERNS LIE W/POTENTIAL MVFR CIG DVLPMNT EARLY ON.
FAIRLY NOTABLE LL BACKING TO THE FLW XPCD AHD OF APCH WAVE THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND SUSPECT CHANNEL OF ENHANCE LL MSTR TRANSPORT SEEN OVR
SE MO/SRN IL WILL MAKE INROADS NWD NR TERM AND THUS HELD W/PRIOR
MENTION AND AMEND AS NEEDED. OTRWS TRENDS SEEN IN UPSTREAM CLD
MASS EVOLUTION AGAIN SUGGEST POCKETS OF INSOLATION/HEATING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH MORNING TO ATTAIN AT LEAST ENOUGH LIMITED SFC BASED
DESTABILIZATION RESPONSE TO WARRANT A TS MENTION FOR THIS AFTN. IN
ADDN...DEEPENING MIXED LYR WITHIN CORE OF LLJ SUGGEST A PD OF SRLY
SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


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