Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 152343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
643 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Issued at 251 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Cooler air will continue to settle across the region tonight.
Along with abundance of cloud cover there will be isolated light
rain showers...possibly mixed with snow across the Michigan
Indiana border. Another storm system will move through later
Friday into Saturday with periods of rain and milder temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

The trough and associated frontal boundary centered over the Lake
Michigan and extending into the mid-Mississippi river valley will
continue to push east through the near term. While a brief
clearing is possible in the wake of the precipitation this will be
short lived as stratus will quickly spread across the Great Lakes
region overnight. Possible Lake Effect enhancement for the
overnight could produce a mix of light snow - but do not
anticipate accumulation. Gradient tightens through the early
morning Thursday and the current marine small craft advisory
headlines will need to be monitored for possible upgrade to gale.

Gradient relaxes during the day Thursday and winds decrease but
plenty of caa will keep the day raw and chilly.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Friday looks to be a relatively tranquil period prior to the next
system moving out of the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes.
This will bring unsettled and wet weather to the region
Saturday... with the cold air settling in and creating a chance of
measurable snow across the extreme northern portion of the CWA.
This will bring much colder weather for Sunday. Ridging builds in
for the short term Monday and Tuesday before yet another system
dives out of the Northern Plains for the midweek into the
Thanksgiving. This does appear to be much colder and could bring a
better chance of measurable snowfall to most of the CWA. Timing
will be crucial and at this timeframe it is really still too early
to be going crazy with snowfall. 6 hour timing difference could be
all it takes to keep this an all rain event.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

A cold front has nearly made its way through the area at this
hour. SBN has seen improving conditions over the past few hours
while FWA will remain under some lingering drizzle and IFR
ceilings. Conditions are expected to improve before to long at FWA
as the cold front quickly tracks eastward.

Later tonight, we anticipate some lake enhanced cloudiness to
drift in brining ceilings down toward IFR. Guidance suggests
ceilings at both terminals may ping-pong between 1,500-2,000 feet.
We will have to ask the overnight team to monitor for any IFR

Wind gusts of 15-20 knots can be expected, perhaps more frequent
at SBN, before diminishing late tonight.

Late in the TAF period, high pressure will move in and establish
MVFR, to perhaps VFR, conditions.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.




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