Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 230903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
503 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 500 aM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Dry and seasonably warm conditions will prevail through Tuesday
with highs continuing to gradually increase. Highs this afternoon
will range from 75 to 80 and into the lower 80s on Tuesday. A
frontal boundary and series of weak systems will provide an
increase in shower and thunderstorm chances starting Tuesday
night and persisting into the holiday weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Dry subsident airmass locked in place by ridging surface/aloft
today to provide full/near full insolation potential. This will
support strong diurnal plus rises on order of 30-35F today. Not
near as cold Monday night as low level ridge centroid settles
ssewd into Carolinas to finally allow uptick in thermal advection
of sig warmer airmass upstream.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016

Unadulterated full insolation again on tue and raised temps/amid
what should be a more homogeneous thermal pattern. Anticipate
upstream /IA-IL-MO/ convection Tue aftn/evening as a shortwave
ejects newd from the plains that should finally enter cwa Tue
night...however as storms move ewd out of instability pool and
encounter weak shear over cwa anticipate a gradual decaying trend
with time. As broad upstream trof continues to eject shortwaves
along with deeper high level theta-e air for additional convection
chances continuing into the weekend. Long duration gomex feed that
has been shunted well west of region providing sig low level
moisture to high latitude with northern extent of lower 60s dps
reaching far srn Manitoba. This conveyor of moisture to easily
support 65-70f dps across cwa from wed aftn on into the weekend.
Storms Wed aftn/eve should refire along outflows/differential
heating boundaries and given semi permanence of broad upstream
trof expect this trend to persist with several convective episodes
possible into the weekend. PWAT values on order of 1.5-1.75 in at
least initially what is a weakly sheared environment poses some
eventual concern for hydrological issues...though not until runoff
efficiencies can increase substantially due to episodic
wettings...more likely into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon May 23 2016
Subsidence associated with a high pressure area will keep VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Winds should remain under 10


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Murphy

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