Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 221951

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
351 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

As high pressure retreats, one last cool night before warmer and
more humid air moves into the region. Lows tonight will drop into
the 50s. There is a good chance for storms Wednesday through
Thursday as an upper level disturbance moves across the area.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s the next several days.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

High pressure was drifting south across the Ohio River region this
afternoon, as return flow from the southwest was was just
beginning over northern Indiana. Some light fog is possible
tonight, but with warmer low level temperatures and better low
level mixing, do not expect the fog to be operationally
significant early Tuesday. Otherwise, conditions will be warmer
Tuesday with highs rising back to near normal for this time of


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

The main challenges this period concerns the chances for storms
midweek with an upper level trof ejecting northeast out of the
southwest CONUS. Moisture flux will increase rapidly Wednesday as a
warm front lifts northeast. Precipitable water values will increase
to around 2.0 inches per GFS BUFKIT. It appears that chances for
severe storms are more marginal Wednesday through Thursday; however,
locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially with any training
storms given favorable factors for heavy rain. After Thursday,
favor a drier GFS in lieu of the ECMWF which ejects a significant
short wave trof toward the area early next week. Temperatures
should rise above normal early next week as an upper level ridge
builds into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Low level anticyclone and building mid level ridge axis into the
region will continue to provide tranquil weather through this
period. Good radiational cooling conditions tonight should promote
similar patchy early morning fog for outlying areas...but
currently not expecting significant impacts for the terminals and
will maintain VFR conditions. Weak lake breeze has formed this
afternoon but low level gradient should remain strong enough to
keep this lake breeze from making it to KSBN. Southwest-south
winds should continue this period as the sfc anticyclone slowly
shifts eastward.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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