Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310509
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN CWA WITH SBCAPES TO 2000-2500
J/KG AS SFC T/TD REACH THE MID 80S/UPR 60S...HIEST ACRS FAR SERN
CWA. FOCUS FOR LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROF PASSING THROUGH SERN
HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD AID IN CONTINUED UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ANTICIPATE RELATIVELY MEAGER
COVERAGE GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONALLY SWD MOVG MID
TROP VORTICY OVR SERN MI PER WV IMAGERY TO AID IN GENERAL ASCENT
THI AFTN/EVE. CONVECTION STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH
MARKED DOWNTREND IN CHCS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

CONCERN FOR BR/FG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. EXPANSIVE
STRATUS/VSBY REDUCTIONS NEATH UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE/NWRN CWA QUITE SLOW
IN MIXING TODAY. GIVEN WEAK/NIL SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
925MB RH FIELDS...STRATUS/BR TO LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. 10-15 KT FLOW AT 925MB SHOULD SERVE TO
SUFFICIENTLY MIX BLYR FOR STRATUS BLOSSOM. ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS FAR
SRN/SERN CWA ASSOCD WITH SFC DPS POOLED TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG
DIFFUSE SFC FEATURE AND POSSIBLE PERIPHERAL VORTICITY /CURRENTLY
ACRS FAR WRN KY/ SWEPT INTO VORT CHANNEL/INTO CNTL IN. LITTLE CHANGE
WRT TEMPERATURES...SAVE FOR A COOLER/DRAINAGE FLOW TONIGHT ALONG
BERRIEN CO SHORELINE/KBEH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ITS LOOKING TO BE A TOASTY WEEK. THE 500MB RIDGE OVER OUR AREA
CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. 850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 17-
20C...WHICH PUTS TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS HOWEVER ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES ALOFT THAT MODELS GENERATE CONVECTION FOR TUE-FRI. IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY MENTIONABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES...I
AM HESITANT TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT ALL...EXCEPT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH. HAVE LIMITED THESE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO BE ISOLATED AND NON-SEVERE. OTHERWISE...KEPT
CONDITIONS DRY THU THROUGH SUN...WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-
STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL.

ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012-014-016-017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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