Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 281037
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND THEN RISE
TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.