Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211010
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
610 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
BREEZES. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND MAY GIVE RISE TO A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

PV ANOMALY ASSOCD/W INTENSE SW OVR NRN WI WILL DIVE RAPIDLY SEWD
INTO NRN IN BY MIDDAY AS LG SCALE MID LVL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
SEWD. SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W THIS SYS EXTENDS FM WRN LK MI SWWD INTO
CNTRL IN AND WILL CLEAR ERN CWA BY DAYBREAK. SRN FLANK OF CONVN
ALG THIS FTR WILL CARRY EWD THROUGH SRN MI OTRWS SCT SHRA/TSRA
CONT TO FESTER WITHIN DOWNSTREAM WAA OVERTOP LEFT OVER OUTFLW
BUBBLE FM CONVN LAST EVENING YET ON THE WAY OUT OVR FAR SERN ZONES.
AGAIN THOUGH XPC ALL OF THIS WILL BE EAST OF CWA BY SUNRISE AND
WILL THEN AWAIT ARRIVAL OF MID LVL TROUGH ACRS THE NW CWA TWD THE
NOON HOUR FOLLOWED BY RAPID SEWD PIVOT THROUGH MID AFTN.

POST FNTL AIRMASS GETS GUTTED AS STG CAA WING DRIVES SEWD THROUGH
THIS MORNING. PALTRY LEFT OVR RESIDUAL LL THETA-E IN COMBINATION
W/INNOCUOUS VERTICAL ASCENT WARRANT TEMPERING POPS AS REFLECTED
BOTH IN MOS TRENDS AND SEEN IN NEARLY ALL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS.

TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER VS YDA/S UNSEASONABLY WARM READINGS
W/HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE BLDS EAST OVERNIGHT W/CLRG
AND WILL FOLLOW COLDER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LONG TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE PARKING TO THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE SEEN
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF RIDGE AXIS. MORNING LOWS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING ONLY
INTO THE 60S AND THEN BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY ON...SLOW MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND NO SIGNS OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LEADING EDGE OF VIGOROUS LL CAA WING NOW OVERSPREADING NW CWA AND
WILL RAPIDLY SWEEP SEWD THROUGH CWA BY MID MORNING. ROBUST RISE/FALL
COUPLET YIELDING FAIRLY GUSTY POST FNTL NWRLY WINDS W/GUSTS UP TO
30KTS NOTED IN 10Z OBS.

UPSTREAM SHRA IN ASSOCN/W SW WRAPPING UP ACRS ERN WI AND UNDERNEATH
MID LVL COLD POCKET WILL GENERALLY CLIP FAR NE PORTION OF CWA TWD
LT MORNING. TRAILING VORT LOBE AND WK LL FORCED ASCENT MAY YIELD A
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHRA AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTN BUT WILL AGAIN
DEFER ANY MENTION AS LTL IF ANY SENSIBLE IMPACT XPCD. PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD GOING FWD WILL BE ESCALATION OF SFC GRADIENT ESP AFT
SUNRISE UNDERNEATH MID LVL DRYSLOT. LAMP GUIDANCE CONTS TO UPTICK
SLIGHTLY HIGHER W/NWRLY SFC GUSTS ABV 25KTS FOR A TIME LIKELY FM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


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