Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 041924
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD


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