Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 191732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED AS THE WORK WEEK BEGINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTH WITH WINDS
DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP IN TO THE LOWER
30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE IN/MI BORDER. EXPECT THIS
DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE WITH COLDEST READINGS NE AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED.

FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN IN MOST AREAS TODAY AS MODEST
WARM AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO ALLOW FOR WARMER HIGHS.
HOWEVER...LOWERING SUN ANGLE...LIMITED MIXING TO 900 MB OR SO AND
COLD START TO THE DAY WILL ALL HELP KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH
WARMEST READINGS SW.

CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
RAINFALL CHANCES AS MOISTURE REMAINS MARGINAL AND LOWER LEVELS
TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE...IF AT ALL ESPECIALLY NW.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS BARELY DROP TO 30 MB. LOCAL WRF
GIVES SOME GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR A BIT OF RAINFALL BUT ONLY IN A
NARROW STRIPE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ONLY 1 MODEL HOLDS
ONTO FORMATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SE AREAS DESPITE
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE SETUP. AS A RESULT...AND IN
AGREEMENT WITH MOST SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE LOWERED POPS IN
ALL AREAS AND PLACED HIGHEST EMPHASIS ON 9 TO 12Z MON TIME FRAME.
BETTER CHANCES APPEAR TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. TREND OVER PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES HAS
BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY MORE DELAYED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WITH
LESS RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY
SUPPORTED IN THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME MONDAY PER NAM/GFS UPPER LEVEL
Q-VEC PROGS. NARROW/WEAK SCOPE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO WEST-EAST POP
GRADIENT ON MONDAY...WITH BEST AFTERNOON CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST
WHERE SOME VERY WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
JUST IN ADVANCE OF SFC TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PASSAGE OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ONSET OF LOW LEVEL DRY/COLD
ADVECTION. SOME WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT DRYING MID LEVEL PROFILES AND
SHALLOW/MARGINAL NATURE TO LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY SHOULD
MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD
BE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER 60S EXTREME SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AND
WHERE BETTER CHANCE OF SOME INSOLATION SHOULD EXIST LATER IN THE
DAY.

UPPER SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF EAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. THIS MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING TO
LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPS FOR THE THU-SAT PERIOD. AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
REACHING WESTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH CENTRAL
CONUS THURSDAY WITH BULK OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTING CUT-
OFF SOLUTION TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS TYPE OF SETUP...AND DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODERATING LOW LEVELS
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY AND LARGE VFR MET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR
GOOD POTENTIAL TO LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS ACROSS NWRN IN IN
WAKE OF MIDDAY FROPA. KFWA BEST MOISTURE POOLING AND UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION PROFILE AFFORDED BY SHARPENING TROF...STILL VCSH
SHOULD COVER GIVEN OVERALL MODEST MOISTURE PROFILE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


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