Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 150701
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
301 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through the weekend.

- Turning colder starting Sunday with highs Monday failing to
  rise out of the 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

The cold front that brought storms to the area last night continued
to shift southeast and out of the area by 6z last night. As such,
this morning`s temperatures will be much colder, in the 30s as
opposed to the 40s yesterday morning. Behind the cold front, the
cooler and drier air helps decrease clouds midday to the afternoon.
As we are cold advecting today on northwest winds, high temperatures
will also be colder, between the upper 40s and mid 50s. Mostly clear
skies tonight may make it easier to radiatively cool, perhaps
allowing for frost, but we`ll need to be more certain that winds
decouple. Temps drop into the 30s tonight.

For Saturday, an upper level low pressure system dives southeast in
south-central Canada and trails its peripheral strung out area of
vorticity and associated surface cold front through the
forecast area. Because of the timing of the front, we`ll
actually be able to work some warm advection into the area and
that will help to push temperatures back into the 50s and low
60s for highs after starting the day in the low 30s.
Additionally, wind gusts will be excited again, able to reach
around 25 to 30 kts. MUCAPE appears lacking keeping thunder out
of the forecast and, therefore, limiting overall rain amounts.
As such, have silent PoPs in for Saturday afternoon and only
slight chance into the evening.

Between Sunday and Monday, the upper low traverses eastward, but the
trough deepens over the Midwest pulling colder air into the area.
High temperatures will be in the low 40s and upper 30s on Sunday,
but will struggle to even reach 40 degrees on  Monday, which is a
good 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. This causes
an increase in lake effect cloud cover across the area with
inversion heights between 850 and 700 mb and delta Ts around 20C.
This is fairly meager. The best chance for showers, which happens to
be in the form snow, exists Sunday night into Monday. This will be
in conjunction with a vort max moving through in the flow. Currently
have totals less than an inch in there by Monday morning, but think
it`ll struggle to accumulate with how warm we`ve been. Maybe grassy
areas at best.

The final shortwave moves through the area Monday night into Tuesday
morning as trajectories become more southerly and low level wind
convergence becomes more divergent helping to shut off precip
chances Tuesday. Additionally, mid level ridging begins to sneak in
and warm advection ensues allowing a recovery in temperatures, once
again, reaching the 40s area-wide.

Dry weather continues through at least mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Stratus within post frontal drape will linger through daybreak
before low level drying take over with quick return to VFR
thereafter.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...T


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