Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 140742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
242 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

Warmer, more moist, air will stream northward into the region
later today into Thursday with chances for rain, drizzle and fog.
Highs will reach the 40s today and the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Thursday. Locations southeast of Route 24 on Thursday in east-
central Indiana and northwest Ohio could see highs near 60 degrees
on Thursday. This will followed by a brief shot of cooler and
drier weather Friday into Saturday. The pattern next week looks
occasionally wet and mild.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

A return flow of warmer/moist low level air over an extensive snow
pack (at least northern half of forecast area) will overspread today
into tonight. This will set the stage for a low stratus deck to
build northward this period. Moisture profile overall looks
relatively shallow suggesting more of a fog/drizzle scenario at best
in most locations, save for areas southeast of US 24 this
afternoon/evening as some slightly deeper moisture potentially
supports more organized rain shower activity. A nice day otherwise
today with temps trending above freezing.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

A milder/active pattern looks to settle in for the second half of
February as the local area becomes entrenched in moist wsw deep
layered flow in advance of a mean Western US upper trough. Frontal
wave still on tap for a period of rain Thursday aftn/eve and have
held with high PoPs, though higher rainfall totals amid more robust
moisture convergence expected south toward the Ohio River. Transient
shot of cool/seasonable air then into Friday/Saturday in a split
flow configuration. Will have to watch later Saturday/Saturday night
for a period of lighter snow if trailing energy isn`t sheared to
pieces. Added chance PoPs given model trends, though no real
confidence in any solutions at this point.

The early-mid portions of next week continue to be the most
intriguing periods of the forecast as southeast US ridging amplifies
in response to renewed Western US troughing. A high moisture GOM
airmass will interact with a developing baroclinic zone in between
these features from the Southern Plains northeast into the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes. Slow moving nature and ample moisture into
the boundary does hint at a heavy rain/flooding threat somewhere
across the Midwest/Great Lakes, though details (location/timing of
heavier QPF) obviously unknown at this fcst range.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

VFR to start the period with dry low levels. Fog and stratus
expected later on Wednesday once warming begins and melting
snowpack adds some moisture to low levels. Hires guidance suggest
MVFR to IFR conditions in the late afternoon and evening. Trended
terminals more pessimistic after 20z with further reductions
likely needed but questions at this time on timing of fog and
stratus development and advection into terminals from the south.




SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

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