Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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346
FXUS63 KIWX 271645
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Another warm and mostly sunny day today with highs reaching 85 to
90 degrees. The humidity gradually builds with the next chance
for showers and storms arriving Thursday and persisting into
Saturday as an upper level trough deepens across the middle part
of the nation. Temperatures will remain seasonable into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Surface ridge over the southern Great Lakes to provide another
seasonably warm day/strong diurnal rises across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Status quo continues in long term forecast. Initial high belted
zonal pattern to transition into low amplitude Great Lakes
troffing extending into Lower MS Valley weakness in subtropical
ridge on Thursday. 20-40m/12 hr height falls into Upper Great
Lakes with initial wave with low chance tsra pops with focus
likely along latent frontal boundary presently over Ohio Valley to
begin gradual northward lift amid weak plains cyclogenesis.
Additional nern Pacific Ocean vortex ejections to recarve trof a
bit farther westward dy3-4 timeframe with continuation of chance
pops, though specific timing/mesoscale features remain elusive in
midrange. Eastward relent of Bermuda High along with upstream
progression of cyclone into Canadian Rockies/PAC NW to allow large
scale trof to push into Lower Great Lakes with southward
suppression of frontal boundary as surface ridge envelopes lakes
region. For early next week the desert southwest mid trop heat
ridge builds northeastward into plains/Upr Grtlks. Low level
longitudinal flow relegated well west of region early next week
and initially weak mid level lapse rates suggest maintaining dry
in spite of blends low pop insistence dy5-7. With better mid level
LR setup middle of next week and even then with best dynamics held
well north do not anticipate decent convective coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR conditions will persist with just a few afternoon cu around 5
kft and some increasing high clouds overnight as next shortwave
approaches. MOS guidance again suggesting some ground fog early
tomorrow morning but relatively low surface dewpoints and
increasing high clouds will limit potential so no mention at this
point. Also a chance for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon but
should remain dry/VFR through the end of this TAF period.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...AGD


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