Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 221924
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
324 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

A PLEASANT START TO FALL AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014


HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.

OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014


NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THINKING IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LIKELY TO LIMIT MIXING AND WARMING JUST A BIT.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING HEIGHTS TO ABOUT 925MB WEDNESDAY AND 900MB
THURSDAY. THIS YIELDS MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WED AND LOW
TO MID 70S THU. VERIFICATION STATISTICS FOR CWA INDICATES A RATHER
PRONOUNCED WARM BIAS OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES WITH BLENDED DATA OVER THE
LAST MONTH. DROPPING ALLBLEND BY A DEGREE OR TWO YIELDS MAX T VALUES
CLOSE TO MIX DOWN VALUES FROM SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE
MID 70S BY END OF WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD IN THE 40S BUT MODIFICATION WILL ALLOW MINS TO RISE INTO THE
50S BY MID TO LATE WEEK.

ONLY CHANGE SEEN IN LATEST MODEL RUNS IS WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THURSDAY. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE HOLDING STAUNCH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE. LATEST RUNS SUGGEST THIS SHORT WAVE MAY
MAKE IT INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED
SOUTH. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY WITH RIDGING SO AT THIS TIME ONLY
EXPECT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES.
MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A VERY WEAK
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORKING TOWARD THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...STILL DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR
AREA TO WARRANT ANY POP INCLUSION. THIS WILL BE WATCHED IN LATER
MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW CU HAVE FORMED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IN CONVERGENT
FLOW...BUT THIS CU WILL LINGER ONLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH
THE CORE OF DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LEWIS


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.