Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 281030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
630 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Issued at 401 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

A warm and humid southerly flow will persist this weekend. Highs
will generally reach the low to mid 80s, with lows in the 60s.
Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Sunday with the best chances during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Drier air will filter in on Memorial Day with high
temperatures once again reaching the low to mid 80s. Another upper
level system will then approach the region by the middle of next
week with renewed shower and thunderstorm chances.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

More of the same in the short term period as warm and moist airmass
remains in place with only subtle short waves providing any
mechanism for ascent. Satellite shows a subtle short wave lifting
north through central Indiana early this morning within modest theta
E axis. This has led to a few showers over central Indiana. Hires
models lift this area of pcpn north again today similar to
yesterday. Isolated showers and maybe an isolated tsra this morning
with these features. Atmosphere then becomes unstable again this
afternoon with CAPEs in the 2-3K J/kg range. Models continue to
develop afternoon convection and must once again include low chance
pops given instability and potential for weak short wave. Slightly
better moisture axis shifts eastward today and models indicating
best potential for convection to be in the east. Loss of diurnal
heating tonight will diminish most convection. Focus will shift back
west late as slightly stronger short wave and surface cold front
begin to approach. High temps today will again be in the 80s
with mid 80s possible again depending on amount of clouds.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Upper low expected to lift northeast into the western Great Lakes on
Sunday while dampening. Associated weak surface cold front will move
across the area. Weak low level convergence coupled with afternoon
CAPE values of 2-3K j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 30 knots could
allow for a few strong to severe storms. Timing suggest eastern
areas but models not overly aggressive with convective development.
Maintained low to mid chance pops with highest in the east during
the afternoon. Drying and subsidence then work in and should see a
nice Memorial Day with lower dew points...though a few models
bringing some additional moisture back in later Monday.

Another upper low expected to drop into northern plains next week
with a similar setup of broad moisture plume and weak forcing
ahead of it. This low looks a bit more progressive across the
northern tier of states. Stronger short wave moves through
Thursday with cooler and drier air possible by friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Narrow band of widely scattered light showers developed overnight
and has been working northeast with little more than sprinkles.
Should be a lull in any precip chances until this afternoon when
weak disturbance moves through and peak heating allows at least a
shot at a shower or storm. Still not enough confidence to
introduce into the tafs as models still unable to key in on subtle
features that could spark activity.

Otherwise...only other thing of note will be winds increasing and
becoming gusty late am into this afternoon.


.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley

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