000
FXUS63 KEAX 010238
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
938 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak vorticity maxima embedded and obscured within northwest flow
will rotate southeast through eastern NE/IA and into MO during
the next 24 hours. Have adjusted slight chance PoPs to reflect ongoing
isolated convection moving into far northwest MO and future
expectations. This required extending PoPs through most of CWA on
Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the short term, there is a weak disturbance currently located over
eastern NE that will work into the CWA later tonight. This may allow
for widely scattered light showers and perhaps an isolated
thunderstorm to develop over our far northeast zones. The wave is
associated with the outer circulation of an upper level low parked
near the lower Hudson Bay. Another wave is progged to move through
the CWA tomorrow and that too may allow for the development of light
widely scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm... very hit and
miss precip-wise.

Warmer and dry weather is in store for the weekend and into next week
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures
should return to normal values by Mon into WED. On WED a trough will
work in from the Northern Plains ushering in a cold front. The front
should serve as the focus for precip late WED into WED night and THR
followed by a return of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR conditions at all 3 terminals but with increasing mid level
clouds. Isolated convection associated with a shortwave dropping
slowly south-southeast through eastern NE could affect parts of
northern MO overnight. Low confidence any rain will reach the
terminals.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...MJ