000
FXUS63 KEAX 270845
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 345 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

Very heavy rain is tracking across extreme eastern KS into
western MO this morning where a rather strong low-level jet has
been feeding copious amounts of moisture into a cold front that is
slowly making its way southward. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches have fallen across the entire KC metro eastward into
Lafayette County, with some reports over 7 inches. Flash flooding
is ongoing and will remain a problem for a few more hours.

Heaviest precipitation will gradually shift southeast into areas
south and east of KC early through sunrise and lose some of its
punch as the LLJ starts to veer and convergence weakens. A few
showers and storms could redevelop this afternoon mainly south of
a Harrisonville to Macon line where there will be some lingering
weak instability, but shear will be weak and these storms are
unlikely to be strong.

Cold front will continue making its way southward into the Ozarks
tonight while a large area of high pressure builds into the Upper
Midwest. This feature will maintain its hold on much of the area
for several days as the upper level pattern will undergo very
little change into early next week. The result will be a prolonged
stretch of cooler than average temperatures with highs in the 80s
through Wednesday with comfortable humidity levels. Precipitation
chances will be low to none through the period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT THU JUL 27 2017

Forecast on track for continued SHRA and TSRA overnight although
further south than previously thought. Some IFR cigs and vsbys in
heavier showers and residual fog in early morning possible. By
later in the am expect MVFR to VFR conditions. Winds will remain
light from the north or northeast today.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ028>030-
     037>039-043-044.

&&

$$

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Adolphson