000
FXUS63 KEAX 131352
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
852 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Have sent a quick update to slow down the temperature warm up a bit.
Latest hourly observations are much cooler than the forecast and this
trend will persist until the steep inversion noted on the 12Z Topeka
sounding erodes and those warmer temperatures begin to mix down.
Otherwise the forecast looks on track. The sounding also shows that
there is substantial dry air throughout the atmosphere so dewpoints
are still expected to drop rapidly into the lower 20s leading to
humidity values in the teens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Satellite and upper air observations show a northwest flow in place
across our section of the nation early this morning. Fortunately, we
are on the warm side of the resulting prevailing westerlies aloft,
and look to stay there --for the most part-- over the next week with
occasional weak shortwave troughs shifting through the Plains States
which will knock temperatures down for a day here and there with the
occasional chance at some precipitation.

Main focus for today through Saturday will be the beautiful
weather, which will bring use some fire weather concerns today. More
specifics found in the fire weather section of this discussion below,
but the short version is that it will be dry and windy today.
Otherwise...highs today will likely range across the 60s in most
areas with a high around 70 all across areas near the Kansas-
Missouri-Nebraska borders. A weak trough will move across the Plains
late tonight with a weak cold front, though temperatures wont feel
much cooler behind the front as highs in the 60s are still expected
Friday and Saturday as the prevailing jet stream will keep the
coldest of the air sliding to our east.

Next chance for precipitation will arrive Saturday night as a
southern stream shortwave trough zips east across the Southern
Plains while a northern stream trough starts shearing across the
Northern and Central Plains. Some rain, or a little snow, might get
squeezed out between these two features Saturday night into Sunday.
Potential doesn`t look great, but it`s there. However, even IF any
precipitation does develop QPF for the event in Northern Missouri
will be low. Temperatures Sunday will be some 20 degrees colder --in
the 30s and 40s--, but never fear as readings will begin to rebound
Monday. Highs next work week currently looking to range around to a
little above normal as we generally remain on the warm side of the
still persistent northwest flow.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Today a combination of well above normal temperatures and breezy
winds will significantly raise fire weather concerns through this
afternoon. Dewpoints will start the day in the 20s and wont climb
much --if at all-- through the day, especially as the boundary layer
mixes out this afternoon. Confidence in the low humidities that will
result is very high. Only forecast issue seems to be wind speeds, and
whether they will hit Red Flag criteria today. Current winds as
forecast are marginal for a warning, but fine fuels this time of
year are well cured and tinder, so any little spark should carry a
flame easily. Additionally, while forecast winds are marginal the
reality of the gusts this afternoon along with marginal winds speeds
is enough to warrant going with a Red Flag Warning. Have issued one
for areas from northwest Missouri through east central Kansas and
central Missouri. Currently, north central to northeast Missouri are
expected to maintain slight higher dewpoints today, but that could
change.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Wind shifts
and speeds seem to be the only issues to watch as gusty winds from
the southwest will develop by this afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 352 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Today a combination of well above normal temperatures and breezy
winds will significantly raise fire weather concerns through this
afternoon. Dewpoints will start the day in the 20s and wont climb
much --if at all-- through the day, especially as the boundary layer
mixes out this afternoon. Confidence in the low humidities that will
result is very high. Only forecast issue seems to be wind speeds, and
whether they will hit Red Flag criteria today. Current winds as
forecast are marginal for a warning, but fine fuels this time of
year are well cured and tinder, so any little spark should carry a
flame easily. Additionally, while forecast winds are marginal the
reality of the gusts this afternoon along with marginal winds speeds
is enough to warrant going with a Red Flag Warning. Have issued one
for areas from northwest Missouri through east central Kansas and
central Missouri. Currently, north central to northeast Missouri are
expected to maintain slight higher dewpoints today, but that could
change.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening FOR MOZ001-002-004-011>013-020>022-028>031-037>039-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Cutter
FIRE WEATHER...Cutter