Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 071732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AREAS OF SHOWERS FOCUSING ALONG THE ELEVATED COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS ITS PARENT
TROUGH PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE MORNING - EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS,
GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OUT OF THIS
SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS.

QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DRIFT INTO THE REGION,
LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND SUSTAINING COOL
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MAKE
THIS AFTERNOON NOTICEABLY COOLER, IN ADDITION TO VERY FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS AS A SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND SHOULD BEGIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPERIMPOSES OVER A SLOWLY
NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2+ INCHES IS
EXPECTED ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING, AND COULD
OCCUR IN PERIODS OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES.

YET ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF WEDNESDAY`S STORMS,
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BRINGS MOST
RAINFALL THROUGH NORTHERN MO WHICH WILL BE AN AREA RELATIVELY UN-
SCATHED BY THE LAST FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL SHIFTS SOUTHWARD IN VERY BROAD, GRADUAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A BIT OF A DRIER PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S BY
SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT, AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT, HOURS. WILL BE WATCHING A
STORMS SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH MISSOURI WEDNESDAY, WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
ARRIVING AT THE TERMINALS IN KANSAS CITY AROUND 12Z. THE KSTJ
TERMINAL, FARTHER NORTH, MIGHT NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN ACTIVITY SO HAVE
DELAYED THE ONSET AND JUST GONE WITH A VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MOZ013>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LAFLIN
AVIATION...CUTTER


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