Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241717
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1117 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2017

The main forecast challenges in the short term are how warm and
windy does it get today. SSW winds have already begun to increase
this morning with temperatures rising overnight. We are already
above the normal highs for the day and with southwesterly winds
increasing through the day temperatures will approach record highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Today a upper level trough will dig
from the Canadian Plains into the Great Lakes region and this will
force a weak cold front through the area this evening. However, with
a lack of cold air behind the front temperatures will still remain
above normal on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
Highs Saturday will range from the mid 50s to near 60. High pressure
remains over the area on Sunday with perhaps some weak WAA getting
underway late in the day helping temperatures to rise into the upper
50s to lower 60s. Monday will provide for another very mild day as
strong WAA coupled with upper level ridging building into the region
ahead of a upper level trough digging into the Four Corners region
with allow highs to rise into the 60s.

Models have come into to better agreement as to the evolution of the
aforementioned upper level trough as it move through the Rockies.
Monday night/Tuesday the upper level flow becomes split as a closed
low develops in the base of the upper level trough as it moves
through the southern Rockies. The northern extent of the trough as
it moves through the northern and central Rockies becomes
progressive and quickly moves as a shortwave trough across the
northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest Tuesday forcing a cold
front into the area. The southern extent of the trough in the form
of the upper low will be slower and move into the region Tuesday
night. This will provide the best chance for precipitation Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm enough to
support rain however its not out of the realm of possibility that
northern Missouri could see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain.
Thursday, a upper level trough will move through the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest forcing another cold front
through the area however, will no moisture to work with conditions
should remain dry. temperatures by the middle of nest week will
return to near normal with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Only issue
to watch will be the gusty winds ahead of a cold front that will
sweep through early this evening, veering the wind direction from
southwest to northwest. Winds will calm down overnight with a light
north wind expected Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...Cutter



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