034
FXUS63 KEAX 151910
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
210 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Wednesday AM and
  PM. Strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the
  main threats.

- Hotter, more humid conditions anticipated Wednesday, this
  weekend, and into early next week. Heat indices potentially
  ranging from 100- 107 F.

- Unsettled pattern with daily chances for storms this weekend
  into early next week. No severe weather anticipated at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A weak H500 shortwave moving through southeastern MO has produced
just enough lift in combination with differential daytime heating to
develop a few isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in
southern MO. There is a chance a few pop-up storms will develop in
the southern portions of our area. The most favorable area, with the
least amount of convective inhibition, appears to be south of I-70.
Any storms that develop are anticipated to mostly be diurnally
driven so they will gradually dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating. No severe is expected, but a few isolated wind gusts and
brief downpours are possible.

Later tonight into early Wednesday, a surface cyclone and
accompanying cold front over the South Dakota/Nebraska border will
initiate a line of storms that track to the southeast into northwest
MO. As these storms move into our area, they are expected to be
weakening with diurnal cooling causing storms to become elevated.
However, there is a slim chance for a few strong to severe wind
gusts with inverted-v soundings, dry air aloft, and DCAPE values
exceeding 1,000 J/kg as the line makes its initial approach. PWATs
ranging from 1.5-1.8 inches suggest the potential for some efficient
rain-producing storms. If storms begin to train, there could be some
isolated flooding concerns. MBE velocity vectors ranging from 15-20
kts suggest that storms will be on the more progressive side. As we
progress towards max cooling, the severe threat will continue to
dwindle. The severe threat is anticipated to drop off Wednesday
night, however storms may linger with a 30-40 knot H850 low-level
jet intensifying over areas near northeastern Kansas, and
northwestern Missouri. The H850 low-level jet could aid in
increasing moisture transport and instability to keep the
environment somewhat favorable for storms after midnight despite
diurnal cooling. SPC has issued a marginal risk (1/5) for severe
weather for the northwestern corner of our CWA (areas near Maryville
and to the northwest).

Going into Wednesday afternoon, persistent southerly winds due to a
weak surface high over the Gulf will increase theta-e advection
allowing hot and humid conditions. Heat indices will likely range in
upper 90s to lower 100s across the area. There is a chance for a few
areas to see heat indices as high as 105 degrees. However, this is
highly dependent on how much clearing takes place after convection
as additional cloud coverage could hinder solar heating. Areas along
and south of I-70 have the best chances of seeing triple digit heat
indices as they will likely be farther away from the morning
convection. This is also dependent on how far south the surface
cyclone and associated cold front move through the area before
stalling out with the weak flow. For now, heat headlines seem less
likely as heat advisory criteria will not be widespread.

As the H925 front pushes through the area late Wednesday afternoon
into the night, there will be another round of thunderstorms.
Widespread CAPE values exceeding 2,000 J/kg suggest the potential
for a few strong updrafts. However, limited shear point to brief,
short-lived storms with limited organization. The main threat will
again be isolated damaging wind gusts with DCAPE values exceeding
1,000 J/kg. SPC has issued a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather
for our whole CWA. Efficient rain-producing storms will also be a
possibility with PWATs around 2 inches and potentially strong
updrafts. The potential for multiple rounds of storms from Wednesday
morning into the night could result in flooding concerns especially
for northern MO. WPC has issued a slight risk (at least 25%) for
excessive rainfall for areas north of a line from the KC Metro to
Macon.

There is some uncertainty with storms late Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday. How well the environment will be able to destabilize with
multiple rounds of storms will be one uncertainty. Extensive cloud
coverage could hinder the available instability. Also, timing and
location of features such as the surface cold front or outflow
boundaries will also be critical moving forward with our forecast.
The cold front is anticipated to stall out somewhere over central
MO. If the cold front stalls to the south of our area, better severe
chances could reside in southern MO. Outflow boundaries could also
play a role in where convection develops.

For Thursday afternoon, cooler, drier conditions are anticipated on
the backside of the surface cold front giving some areas relief from
the hot and humid conditions. This will depend on where the cold
front stalls out. As of now, guidance suggests somewhere near I-70.
If this is the case, areas north of I-70 will range in the mid to
upper 70s and areas south of I-70 will range in the low to mid 80s.

An unsettled pattern with daily storm chances comes into play for
the second half of this week into early next week as multiple weak
shortwaves move through the flow. Speaking to temperatures, hotter
and more humid conditions (heat indices of 100-107 F) are likely
heading into the weekend as mid to upper level ridging over the
western U.S. shifts farther to the east. The previously mentioned
surface high will also gradually push to the east reorienting our
winds out of the south increasing theta-e advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions anticipated to last for the duration of the TAF
period. Went with a SCT045 group to account for present cu field.
There is a chance for a few pop up showers for terminals south of I-
70 this afternoon, however due to very low confidence decided to
leave out of TAFs for now. A round of storms is also possible for
the KSTJ, KMKC, and KMCI early tomorrow morning, but left out
due to uncertainty with timing and placement of storms.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...Collier