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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230812
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
312 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

Today`s temperature forecast is quite challenging as there are
several competing elements that if one is weaker than the other or
vice versa then temperatures could be much warmer, or not as a
bad as it has been. First, cloud cover, mainly over the southern
half of the forecast area, may linger into the afternoon and limit
how warm the southern portions of the forecast area get. If these
move out earlier though, temperatures could climb into the middle
90s quickly. Second, where the cloud cover moves out earlier in
the day, likely the northern half of the forecast area, highs
should climb into the low to middle 90s. But, a secondary cold
front will be moving into the area from the north and may get into
northern MO before peak heating, limiting their potential warm
up. Should this slow down then the northern counties will be in
the lower to perhaps middle 90s. Also, with the heavy rains that
occurred, humidity values will likely spike until they`re replaced
by the air mass behind the second front tonight. All that said,
it looks like the KC metro could see highs in the middle 90s with
heat indices around 100. For folks without power it could be a
very uncomfortable day.


Monday looks more comfortable with highs closer to normal and more
tolerable dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. But by Tuesday, highs
climb back into the middle 90s with dewpoints back into the 70s
resulting in heat indices in the 100 to 103 range for eastern KS and
west central MO. The next decent chance for rain will come in the
middle to later portions of the week, specifically Wednesday
night into Thursday. The upper ridge should be centered over the
southern Rockies setting up a northwest flow regime over the area.
As stronger upper level flow begins to move over the area, in
association with several upper level shortwave troughs, a surface
front may become the focus for storms late Wednesday into
Thursday.

For Friday through Sunday, temperatures will be near to a bit
below normal. This is in response to the ridge amplifying over the
west and deeper troughing developing over the east, pushing a
cooler and drier air mass into the region. The cooler and drier
air mass should help to keep precipitation chances low or
completely out of the forecast. Overall, it looks like a pleasant
weekend may be shaping up.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2017

Storms that moved through earlier this evening are starting to
weaken and/or are moving east southeast across central MO. Behind
the strongest part of this system is stratiform rain, with no
lightning. The system is schedule to move out of eastern KS/western
MO within the next few hours. Lingering showers are possible near
the Lake of the Ozarks during the morning hours, otherwise we
should be dry for the remainder of the period. Winds have shifted
to the north behind the cold front, but are expected to shift back
to the west, in areas along the I-70, for the afternoon.
Conditions should remain in VFR but areas north of HWY 36 may see
some patchy fog and low visibilities between 09Z-13Z. Visibilities
could drop to 3SM.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Grana