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000
FXUS63 KEAX 231905
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Over all few changes were needed to the ongoing forecast. Still
expecting storms late tonight to move in from the west in response to
a progressive trough coming out of the Rockies. Some disagreement in
the various CAMs regarding timing. The latest (16Z) run of the HRRR
has weak activity out ahead of a cold front reaching far NE KS/NW MO
by 05Z while other models in the 09-12Z time frame associated with
storms firing along and just ahead of a cold front. Either way the
FCST reflects TSRA chances for much of the night. MUCAPE is rather
limited in the 700 J/kg while bulk shear values are >40 kts. Meaning
not expecting much in the way of any SVR storms yet the activity
should remain somewhat organized. Small hail, gusty winds and locally
heavy rain will be the theme. Tomorrow as the upper lvl trough moves
through the region the rain and storms will exit from west to east
clearly the CWA by mid afternoon.

Friday appears to be mild and dry before the next system for the
weekend. This system will be rather large and deep impacting much of
the CONUS. Saturday should be the nicer of the two weekend days with
perhaps scattered TSRA/SHRA and mild temps as we reside south of a
sharpening warm front. The various suite of NWP still differ on
where the warm front becomes established, but the GFS is now in
closer agreement with the EC in placing the front in southern IA by
Sunday leaving the CWA in a broad and moistening warm sector.
Storms are still expected for Sunday and Sunday night, but we are
too far out in time for specifics. However, the NWP paint a favorable
setup for SVR storms given able shear, and instability for Sunday
and into Monday... see SPC Day 4-8 Outlook for more info. The upper
level low will very slowly move through the region and should be out
of the area by TUE evening. In its wake very cold air (for late
April) will advect into the region during the day on TUE setting up
what could be a chilly TUE night / WED morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Ongoing scattered light showers are expected to taper off this
afternoon and should not have an adverse impact to CIGS and VIS. The
story for this afternoon and evening will be breezy southeast winds
gusting in the middle to upper 20 kts range. But otherwise VFR CIGS
and VIS are expected. Late overnight tonight a line of thunderstorms
are expected to impact the terminals. Have timed this to begin by 08Z
but that may be off an hour or so either side of 08Z. Surface winds
will shift near 12Z with the passage of a cold front along with
periods of SHRA through the morning. The activity should clear out
just beyond the end of the TAF period.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pietrycha
AVIATION...Pietrycha