Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
102 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Updated sky/PoPs and temps in the grids to match current trends.
CU field developed quickly this morning with a few small showers
now showing on radar. Line of showers advancing quickly towards
the FA on the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border. Will be watching
this area of activity as it quickly moves into the DVL basin this
afternoon. Primary threat will be gusty winds, up to 60mph.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Upper air pattern forecast to become more progressive this period.
Water vapor loop indicated a short wave/jet streak over southeast ND
and was producing showers and isolated thunder over the southeast
zones. Isolated precip will move through the southwest/south zones
this morning.

Water vapor loop indicated an upper level trough over northeast ALTA
with a jet on the south side. Upper trough/jet streak will move over
the Red River Valley Mon evening. Slowed down the pops to line up
with the short wave for later this afternoon and tonight.
Precipitable water rises to near an inch for late afternoon/evening
then decreases Tue.

Water vapor loop indicated upper level ridge over the Pacific
Northwest. Upper level ridge forecast to move east over the area and
flatten by Wed morning. Precipitable water rises over an inch by
early Wed.

Upper level trough off the BC coast will move into the Northern
plains/southern Canada Wed night. Cold front moves through Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

We cannot seem to break away from NW flow aloft as next upper low
carves out a trough across the region which continues through the
end of the work week into the upcoming weekend. This will result in
continued below average temperatures with highs from the mid 60s to
the mid 70s and lows from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Main signal for
showers looks to be Saturday however based on model differences
confidence not high.  At any rate heavy rain or severe storms not
anticipated at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

CU development early today with SCT-BKN CIGS 5000-7000ft at most
TAF sites. The exception at DVL where its down to 3000ft. Later
this afternoon and into the early evening a line of showers and
thunder will cross the area from NW to SE. DVL and GFK most likely
to be impacted by TSRA in the 21Z to 01Z time frame with gusty
NW winds.




LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.