Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250022
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SFC LOW AT 00Z JUST SOUTH OF RUGBY AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST TO
NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO GRAFTON BY AROUND 04-05Z THEN TOWARD ROSEAU BY
10Z. DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA EAST OF THE LOW. SOME PRECIP PUSHING
NE THRU SRN/CNTRL MN GENERALLY MISSING OUR FCST AREA AND LIKELY
WILL CONTINUE TO SO OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR SPOTTY -SN IN THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID LOWER POPS IN
FAR ERN FCST AREA FOR TONIGHT BY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT. FOCUS FOR
OUR PRECIP WILL BE WRAPAROUND PRECIP AND HOW MUCH WILL FALL IN OUR
FCST AREA. ATTM PRECIP WEST OF THE SFC LOW NOT TERRIBLY INTENSE
WITH RADARS SHOWING HEAVIEST NORTH OF THE LOW IN SW MANITOBA.
HRRR/RAP HAS LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING EAST BEHIND THE LOW INTO NW
FCST AREA AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AND INTO THE NRN RRV BY 06Z OR SO.
INITIAL SFC TEMPS WARM BUT WILL FALL WITH PRECIP. INTENSITY OF
PRECIP WOULD SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW...WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING WED
MORNING. 1-2 INCHES IN GRIDS FOR FAR NRN ND/NW MN SEEMS OK
ATTM...BUT MAY BE END UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF THAT. IT WILL GET
WINDY FOR SURE WEDNESDAY INTO ADVISORY RANGE IN MANY AREAS.
HESISTANT TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY NOT KNOWING HOW SNOW WILL BE
EXACTLY IN THE FAR NORTH AS MAY NEED A WINTER HEADLINE FOR A FEW
HOURS LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AM. MAIN WIND ALSO JUST AFTER THE SNOW
MOVES THROUGH. ANYHOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER OR WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE PCPN AMOUNTS/PCPN TYPE AND THEN
WIND SPEEDS ON WED. MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON PCPN
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT SO FAR SO CONFIDENCE INTO TONIGHT/WED NOT
VERY HIGH. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE STILL SOME HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS FROM WADENA TO KBJI TO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION. TEMPS
IN THOSE AREAS ARE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. STILL COOLEST IN THE FAR
NW AND S. SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL ND WITH GUSTY SSE WINDS ACROSS THE
FA. AS FAR AS PCPN GOES...NOT MUCH LEFT OVER NORTHEAST ND AND NOT
MUCH REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. MODELS LIFT THE
SFC LOW INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z WED SO MOST OF
THE FA WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY SLOT THRU THEN. 12Z OPERATIONAL
MODELS STILL TRY TO JOIN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BAND WITH THE
NORTHEAST ND BAND INTO TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE AND THE HIGH
RES MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WITH THAT. THINKING THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
BAND MAY STAY THERE AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MN TONIGHT...BUT IT
MAY BE MORE SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AT MOST. THEREFORE
MOST OF THE EVENING SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET. AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION BY 12Z WED...925MB
TEMPS DROP ACROSS THE FAR NW FA...OR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KDVL
TO LANGDON. THIS WOULD BE THE 6 HR PERIOD FOR THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. HOWEVER IT IS WRAPAROUND PCPN SO AM NOT REALLY
CONVINCED MUCH WILL ADD UP. CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA ROBBING THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE THERE. WITH MY
6 HOUR SNOW POTENTIAL WINDOW...GETTING MORE LIKE AN INCH OR INCH
AND A HALF OF SNOW AT MOST ACROSS THE LANGDON TO CANDO CORRIDOR
AND THEN MAINLY CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER.

BY 09Z OR SO THE STRONGER NNW WINDS WILL START TO COME INTO PLAY
NW OF KDVL TOO. COULD GET A FEW HOURS OF SNOW AND WIND IN
CONJUNCTION UNLESS CURRENT PCPN FORECAST IS OVERDONE. GOING TO
NEED FALLING SNOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO CAUSE
ANY REDUCED VSBYS UP IN THAT AREA. HAD CONSIDERED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR TOWNER AND CAVALIER COUNTIES...BUT JUST NOT CONVINCED
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW. IF STRONGER WINDS TAKE UNTIL 12Z TO GET
GOING THE WINDOW OF SNOW AND WIND WOULD NOT BE THERE EITHER. LATER
SHIFTS CAN KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS AND ADJUST IF NEED BE. WINDS STAY
PRETTY STRONG FOR MOST OF WED...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
BE NEEDED FOR AREAS AT LEAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE ONE IF THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKELY. DO NOT WANT TO HANDCUFF THEM AT THIS POINT IF A WINTER
HEADLINE IS NEEDED EARLY WED MORNING. WINDS AND ANY LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW END LATER WED INTO WED EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

LEFT LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON FRI...BUT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL HAVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT START TO DIFFER
QUICKLY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GEM AND GFS HAD
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WESTERN ND BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE WAVE AND KEPT US DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS
STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW POPS THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON SUNDAY. ONE THING THAT IS
CERTAIN WILL BE WIND FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE SHOULD GET A GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN IF THE PRECIP MISSES THE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE
BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRIEFLY
RETURNS FOR MONDAY BEFORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE START OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND
FAIRLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VFR CLOUDS AT TVF/BJI WILL TURN MVFR LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LOWER MVFR CIGS IN THE RRV WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS PSBL AFTER LOW PASSES BY AND WINDS
TURN NORTHWEST. BIGGEST AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE WINDS 12Z-18Z
PERIOD WEDNESDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS SEEM VERY POSSIBLE AT
GFK-FAR. DVL REGION TO SEE IFR CIGS WITH A BIT BETTER CHC OF WET
SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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