Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242141
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FCST CHALLENGE IS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AND THEN SNOW THREAT TUESDAY
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF ERN/CNTRL
ND WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ROUGHLY ROSEAU TO FARGO TO FORMAN EAST.
CLOUDS IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING IN
ERN ND AND AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPS COULD FALL QUICKLY IN SOME
SPOTS. VARIABLE SNOW COVER WILL MAKE LOW TEMPS TOUGH...BUT
GENERALLY EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE IN
SASKATCHEWAN THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. THERE HAS BEEN SOME VERY
LIGHT WITH THIS ON CANADIAN RADAR BUT MODELS INDICATE PRECIP WILL
DRY OUT MORE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO SFC HIGH. DID KEEP 20 POP FOR
ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT MAY MAKE IT INTO WRN FCST AREA TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OR A BIT AFTER. CLOUDS COMING INTO THE WEST SHOULD MAKE TEMP FALL
STOP AND TEMPS RISE A BIT.

ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER TUESDAY HANDLED A BIT BETTER NOW
WITH CONSENSUS IS TO TAKE SFC LOW THRU SOUTHWESTERN ND INTO
EASTERN SD WITH BAND OF 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WILLISTON TO CARRINGTON
TO ABOUT WAHPETON-FORMAN AREA. LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF THIS BUT
STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE INTO THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW TUES NIGHT. LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND (20-25 KTS) SRN VALLEY LATE TUES NIGHT SO WILL NEED
TO WATCH THAT FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES IF FORECAST PANS OUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BLUSTERY AND COLD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH DROPS SOUTH. NEXT SHORT WAVE
DUE TO MOVE EAST FROM SOUTHERN B.C. INTO MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW REACHIND DVL BASIN
THURSDAY LATE AFTN. THIS IS A MORE PACIFIC HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM AND
MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THESE AND WITH THERMAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE TRACK OF SYSTEM MAY CHANGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER. CHC OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS 500MB FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST CHC WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA AS WAA OCCURS AND TEMPS RISE OVERNIGHT.
LESSER CHCS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS 1036MB HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ENDING THE
PCPN THREAT. MAX TEMPS WILL BE BLO END OF NOVEMBER NORMALS WITH 20S
FRI FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST AS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY
AT FAR AND TVF WILL IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTN WHERE BJI IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING. NW WIND GUSTINESS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
AND EVENTUALLY END WITH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT VFR WITH MID CLOUDS
ENTERING THE DVL AREA AS THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO INFLUENCE THE
AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK






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