Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Issued at 937 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Changes to temp curve made at 7 PM update are working out well and
no changes planned for this forecast update. Skies have cleared in
the east and return flow increasing by a few knots, which will
slow down or steady off temperature falls.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Minor updates made to hourly temp grids, mainly per ADJLAV
guidance and CONSMOS for MinT, which lowers temps in the Park
Rapids area while increasing them slightly around Lisbon. Also
updated clearing line in the far east per latest time of arrival
tool trends, which basically clears BJI out by 0130Z. Main theme
is clear skies and nearly steady temps as warm advection


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Fairly uneventful in the short term. Big push of warm advection
will be through the region this evening however low level warming
will continue into the weekend. Will see clearing from the valley
west this evening however with some mixing and warmer column
temperatures will not be nearly as cold with lows generally in
the single digits blo zero.

With warmer start temperatures should be able to recover into the
teens saturday. Overall a pleasant day with sunshine, warmer
temperatures and lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Saturday night through Tuesday...Warming trend continues for the
end of the weekend with upper flow becoming more zonal and west to
southwest winds at the surface continuing to pump warmer air into
the area. The models are all in fairly decent agreement on a
northern brand shortwave digging down and phasing with the system
coming out of the southwest and bringing ice to Southern Plains.
The ECMWF tries to lift the system far enough west Monday night
and Tuesday to clip our southeastern counties, but the other
deterministic models keep everything south and east. The GEFS
plumes have a few ensemble members showing decent QPF at PKD, but
the majority of the runs are dry. Will keep some low POPs going
for the far southeast but amounts minimal. The trough will also
bring some slight cool air advection behind it, but it will be
weak and short lived so will only bring a slight pause in the
warming trend.

Wednesday through Friday...northwesterly flow behind the departing
trough will shift over to southwesterly then southerly by the end of
the week. The ECMWF tries to bring a shortwave through for Wednesday
but seems to be an outlier so will keep things dry for now. Better
chances for precipitation will be at the end of the period when the
upper trough digs into the western CONUS and we start getting weak
lead shortwaves moving into the area. Warm air advection will
continue through the end of the week, and some highs above the
freezing mark are not out of the question.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 639 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conds with low VFR cigs over BJI moving east of area by 02Z.
Otherwise clear all night and for most of the day tomorrow.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Speicher is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.