Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260919
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
419 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Challenge for today will be placement and amount of def zone
snowfall. Mixed precip will continue to switch over this morning
as warm temps aloft fall below freezing which occurred early this
morning at BJI. -FZRA at Fargo with all snow reported in SE ND at
Milnor early this morning so only a matter of time for the rest
of the def zone column to cool...HRRR temps indicate should be all
snow by 12Z. Went ahead and added OT and Wadena counties for
accumulating mix of freezing rain and ice this morning.

There is high confidence in the placement of the snow band as the
slowly moving 500mb low moves over SE ND today. Expecting the snow
band to linger this morning across SE ND into the Bemidji area. Model
QPF between a quarter and a half inch would lend to 3 to 6 inches
of snow under this band with higher amounts possible if snow
ratios can be higher. A question always in late season snow events
is how snow and ice accumulate on road surfaces vs grassy areas.
Will need to monitor trends under the highest reflectivities to
see how the forecast can be improved/updated.

The band will lift to the north this afternoon and into NW MN
this evening with snow light snow expected with 1 to 3 inches
expected from Grand Forks to Baudette. Some lingering snow is
possible Thursday across NW MN with temps holding into the 30s
east of the valley and 40s elsewhere.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Upper low impacts will move out leading to a milder and dry
Friday with sunshine. This weekend will see temperatures back to
around late April normals with the next chance for precipitation
arriving into parts of west central into north central MN Sunday
night into Monday. This region will be on the northwest edge of a
precipitation shield from a large upper level system which will
move through the western Great Lakes. The 00z ECMWF maintains a
much stronger and farther west soln and also a bit colder with
snow potential once again over much of north central MN. From the
west look for rain chances to increase on Tuesday as a 500 mb
trough moves in once the upper low over the western Great Lakes
departs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Precipitation is developing across the KFAR and KBJI area. KFAR
should be mostly snow...while KBJI will be a mix before turning to
snow. Cigs/Vsby will drop to at least IFR where precipitation
occurs...otherwise expect MVFR conditions.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-
     039-049-052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-
     003-009-015>017-022>024-027>032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...TG


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