Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 112100
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
300 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

If conditions continue to improve, plan on letting the winter
weather advisories and blizzard warning expire at 4pm. There has
been a steady improvement in visibility as wind speeds slowly
diminish. Plow cams and web cams also indicate improvement. Patchy
blowing snow with visibilities 1/2 mile or less may remain into
the late afternoon hours, but there is high confidence in the
idea of improvement. The next concern is dangerous wind chills.
Surface ridging will build into western/central North Dakota
tonight. Lighter winds and clear sky will allow temperatures to
fall below -20F most areas. Winds will be light (generally AOB 5
knots) by the early morning hours Friday, but still enough to dip
wind chills -25F to -40F. A few areas expected to have wind chills
colder than -40F, but limited duration and lighter wind speeds
will limit impacts. With all of this said, wind chill advisory
the best headline to cover the expected impacts (for tonight into
Friday). Arctic air will remain in place on Friday, and with
limited mixing max temps will struggle to reach single digits
below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

The Arctic plunge continues on Sat with early morning temps around
minus 25F combining with some wind to produce chills near or in
excess of 40 below. Recovery during the day will be minimal as max
temps remain below zero over the entire forecast area. Increasing
cloud cover and some warm air advection Sat night will translate to
"milder" low temps to be followed by the next chance for some
impactful weather.

This will be in the form of another cold front with the potential
for some light snow during the afternoon followed by increasing
winds during eve/night. Some guidance suggests speeds in vicinity of
20 kts bring blowing snow potential into the picture. Then back to
frigid weather as another Arctic high builds in Mon/Mon night with
the return of more dangerously frigid apparent temp values lasting
into Tue morning.

By Wed ridging building in from the west will lift regional temps to
near average values with the outlook for a further boost as the week
comes to an end.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

LIFR conditions due to the blizzard within the valley region will
remain through the early afternoon hours and then conditions will
slowly improve. Outside of the valley, any lingering lower
conditions will quickly improve this afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-
     016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for NDZ008-016-026>030-
     038-039-049-052>054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for NDZ006-007-014-015-
     024.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for
     MNZ003>006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027>032-040.

     Blizzard Warning until 4 PM CST this afternoon for MNZ001-002-
     007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...TG



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