Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 112121
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
321 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Main concerns for tonight will initially be wind chills, then the
addition of to blowing snow late in the overnight and towards
morning.

As of 21z, surface high pressure was centered near the central ND
and SD border. Temperatures have struggled to rise much this
afternoon, even with plenty of sunshine. Just enough wind will keep
wind chills in advisory criteria (or reaching criteria later this
evening) so have extended the ongoing Wind Chill Advisory (in both
area and time).

The surface high will continue to slide off to the southeast this
evening as a compact upper wave and associated surface low skirt
along the international border. Models depict some very light QPF
across the far northeast as this moves through, but with its fast
moving nature and limited moisture, minimal, if any, accumulation
will be likely.

The main impact for our region with this wave will be increasing
winds first to the south and then to the west behind the wave.
Increasing northwest winds will move into the Devils Lake basin
late this evening and spread south and east towards Thursday
morning. Sustained winds of 20-25 kts, with gusts possibly pushing
35-40 kts, should be more than enough to produce some areas of
blowing snow, even without any new snow falling. Just how much
this blowing (and drifting) snow will affect visibility and
driving conditions will need to be monitored. At this time, feel
there should be enough across the Devils Lake basin and northern
Red River Valley for the morning commute to produce some issues so
have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for this time frame.
Wind chills will be even more of an issue as they will heads
towards the -40 degree mark early Thursday with the increase in
winds. Winds will decrease throughout the day as another area of
high pressure builds into the Northern Plains.

Regarding temperatures...the increase in winds should keep
temperatures from dropping off much, if at all, overnight. Colder
air will filter into the region beginning in the afternoon as the
surface high begins to build in.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 321 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Surface high to settle in over the fa Thursday night. Coldest air
will slide east of the forecast area however with fresh snow, light
winds and skc will still be a cold night with sub 20 below readings.
In addition, return flow and warm advection after midnight may
allow temperatures to level off or limit drop from valley west.

Respectable warm advection and mixing to some degree will allow for
nice thermal recovery from Friday on with temperatures reaching
average values by the end of the weekend with little if any pcpn
expected. First half of next week will continue with at or above
average temperatures. Some pcpn may glance the far SE Tuesday
however confidence low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

VFR through the period. Mostly clear skies with fairly light
northwest winds will gradually turn to the southwest as surface
high pressure passes to the south. By Thursday morning, winds
will switch back around to the northwest and increase as a
compact surface low moves across southern Manitoba. Winds will be
the strongest across northeast North Dakota so have included a
BLSN mention at KDVL for late in the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday
     for NDZ049-052-053.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Thursday for NDZ039.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Thursday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday
     for MNZ006-009-017-024-029>032-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Thursday for MNZ002-003-015-
     016-022-023-027-028.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Thursday for
     MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for MNZ001-004-005-
     007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Lee



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