Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
938 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

Issued at 938 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Had a nice bowing line of thunderstorms move from Valley City to
Lisbon and now into far southeast ND over the last several hours.
This produced some large hail and strong wind gusts. The strongest
portion of this line is now dropping into northeast SD. To the
north of this line, it has been mainly showers with isolated
thunder. Rainfall amounts have been much lower as well from Fargo
northward. As the storms move out of the FA, it looks like the
clouds should also start to move out. Then the questions shift to
thunderstorm redevelopment this afternoon. The latest high
resolution model guidance shows as the cold front progresses into
southeast ND and west central MN by mid to late afternoon,
additional showers and storms may break out along the line. Some
of these storms could also become severe. However will see how
fast the clouds move out and how much heating and recovery can
occur after these morning storms exit the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Short term period primary threats include flash flood potential
this morning and severe threat later today. The latest analysis
indicates an area of 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE exists over south-central
ND currently. Further north and northeast into NE ND...MUCAPEs of
around 500 exist. A 25-35 kt low level jet is helping keep
thunderstorm activity going this morning. This jet, along with the
theta-e associated with the high MUCAPEs, will shift east this
morning as a low in the western Dakotas shifts east as well.
Frontal boundary across the north is being reinforced by the cold
pool associated with current thunderstorm activity in that area
and can be seen moving south as a fine line on radar. Recent WPC
meso precip discussion points out flooding potential exists as
this system shifts east into the Red River Valley this
morning...all the way down to the southern valley. Will mention
flooding/heavy rain threat in HWO and also in grids. Thunderstorm
activity this afternoon will be dependent upon this morning`s
activity. Current thinking is that the southern part of the valley
could see severe activity this afternoon/early evening. The last
two runs of the HRRR point toward this morning`s activity moving
through Bemidji by noon...with redevelopment /possible/ behind
this line near Fargo/Wahpeton into the late afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu
Aug 18 2016

Friday looks quiet with cool high pressure building into the
region under cloudy skies. Clouds decrease for Saturday...but cool
air will linger with highs only in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Long wave upper level trough over Hudson Bay shifts east while long
wave ridge over the Gulf of AK shifts into western Canada by the end
of the period. The long wave pattern de-amplifies through the period.
The GFS and the ECMWF were in good agreement through the period with
the GFS a little faster on MON then syncs back up by the end of the
period. The ECMWF was trending faster while the GFS was vacillating
around in the Mon time frame. Will blend the models.

High temperatures were increased a degree or so on Sun. Temps were
increased two to three degrees for Mon and one or two degrees for
Tue. High temps decreased one to two degrees for Wed from
yesterdays forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 712 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Thunder chances have appeared to diminish in the north this
morning. Will need to monitor trends to see if thunder will return
this afternoon. Thunder on track for FAR around 14Z.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/Hoppes
AVIATION...Knutsvig is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.