Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280317
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
917 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The rain has moved up into the Interstate 94 corridor now, with
several observation sites reporting up to a tenth of an inch of
rain already. Radar shows some decent patches of higher intensity
echoes within the broad area of light rain, so still expecting
some areas to pick up around a half an inch of rain tonight. After
looking through model data and watching observations and road
temps this evening, decided to throw in Nelson and western Walsh
counties to the winter weather advisory. Kind of tricky, as some
spots in the immediate Red River Valley have actually seen
slightly rising temps this evening. However, all it takes is a
little freezing pcpn to make roads slick. There will probably be a
cut off somewhere west of the Red River Valley where it goes from
just fine to slippery spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late this afternoon through Monday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Visibility issues are slowly improving across Minnesota lakes
country. Although a little bit of patchy fog might persist into the
late afternoon, conditions should continue to improve. Therefore,
will be able to cancel most of the Dense Fog Advisory with this
afternoon`s forecast update. Will hang on to southern Beltrami,
Hubbard, and Wadena counties for awhile longer with PKD and BJI
still going back and forth between 1/4 and 1/2 SM.

Low pressure centered near the Colorado/Nebraska border is on track
to deepen and slowly propagate northwards towards the Red River
Valley overnight. Latest global and short term model runs have
slowed down the onset of precipitation crossing into the southern
forecast area just slightly as the column takes awhile to
saturate. Therefore, tried to time PoPs to line up with this
thinking. Precipitation will spread from south to north overnight
and throughout the day on Monday as rain for the majority of the
area. Temperatures along and east of the valley will stay above
freezing tonight and warm into the low to mid 40s on Monday.

Things get a bit trickier across the Devils Lake basin in the
coldest air with temperatures dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s
tonight. Forecast soundings show the column cooling with the
potential for a brief period of some mixed precipitation. However,
the latest runs do cut back on the strength and longevity of the
above ground warm layer so thinking the transition to snow may
happen fairly quickly with not as much of a mix as previously
thought. Either way, have decided to with a Winter Weather
Advisory for this area to encompass any mixed precipitation along
with a couple inches of snow accumulation (most likely highest
across far western Benson county) before changing back over to
rain later on Monday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper
30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Above freezing air at the sfc to 850 mb will remain over most
areas through Monday night then start to cool slowly Tuesday. Thus
upper level low by Monday night will lose most of its moisture
source as drier air cuts it off the south but do expect areas of
light rain and drizzle. The light rain and drizzle to mix with
light snow or change to light snow from west to east later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Colder air to flow into the area Wednesday and
all areas should see some light snow. Precipitation amounts
Tuesday into Wednesday around the upper low will be quite light as
moisture source is cut off. Thus no significant snow accumulations
are expected once the cold air does move in with general ideas of
under one inch expected Wednesday. Rest of the week will see the
upper trough move east and the airmass over the area trended a
bit closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Looks like the main story for the TAFs will be low ceilings
throughout the entire 24 hour TAF period. Seeing some fog at
KBJI/KTVF/KDVL this evening, which will transition to more rain or
a mix of rain and snow later tonight. Visibilities hard to say at
this point, so went more of a 2 to 4 mile range as the pcpn moves
through. If the fog holds it could be lower, but will have to
watch and see. Only site that may mix with snow will be KDVL.
Winds look to stay fairly steady overnight, transitioning from
east to northeast with time. After the first band of rain lifts
out of the area tonight, there will still be lingering light rain
on Monday, with potentially better vsbys. However, hard to
increase them too much at this point, so just showed a slightly
better trend.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for NDZ006-007-
     014-015-024-026-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon



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