Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150853

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Mid level wave and associated surface boundary will be crossing
the forecast area this morning. Will monitor radar trends and
surface observations to see if sprinkle mention needs to be
extended however at this point does not look like it will be
needed. Otherwise there will be some cold advection today however
with surface westerly flow and eventual solar with wave exiting
temperatures again well be above average.

column remain relatively mild overnight so minimum temperatures
will continue to range above average.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Stronger wave will impact the region later Sunday into early
Monday. GFS now more expansive with favored convective parameters
for T Sunday night but for now will limit T to the south half of
the FA.

Boundary pretty much pushes through by 12z Monday so most areas
will be dry. Westerly surface flow and continued mild column will
keep temperatures above average. .

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK forecast to weaken through the
period. Relatively zonal flow at the beginning of the period. Low
amplitude long wave ridge/trough develops over western North
America/eastern North America respectively by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was faster than the GFS through the period. Both the ECMWF
and the GFS were trending faster over the last couple model runs.

Upper air pattern expected to be quite progressive. Good ridge
building is expected on the west coast by Tue and again Wed.
Downstream trough is expected over the Northern Plains by Thu.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016

Only expect SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds for the next 24
hours. A frontal boundary is currently moving into eastern North
Dakota. Winds will be a bit variable in speed and direction as it
moves in, but they will switch to the west after it passes




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.