Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300808
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEAR FARGO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SFC LOW
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY. AS THIS WAVE AND SFC LOW PASSES EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH THRU THE EARLY
MORNING. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA MAINLY BEMIDJ AREA SOUTHWARD THRU MID MORNING. UPSTREAM
IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL RAPIDLY DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM
CENTRAL MANITOBA TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A FAST MOVING
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO DROP THRU THE AREA TODAY...WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTN. STRATOCU WITH THIS FEATURE UPSTREAM
AND SOME LIGHT PRECIP ON OBS AT DAUPHIN MANITOBA. THIS CLOUD BAND
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MODELS HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS WAVE MAINLY NRN RRV THRU NW MN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER NE ND AS STRONG DRYING
OCCURS IN THE LOW LEVELS DUE TO COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL RISE
SOME TODAY BUT LIKELY STABILIZE OR FALL A FEW MID TO LATE AFTN.
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO ERN/CNTRL ND BY 12Z FRIDAY AND WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING WIND EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUNNY FRIDAY AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP FRI LATE AFTN IN ERN
ND. COOL DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS TO INCREASE FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AHD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS
AT THE LOW LEVELS SO NO PRECIP THRU SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
BE A PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PROPAGATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE A DAY OR
SO LATER. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND MOSTLY LIQUID
(ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD BE POSSIBLE). TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CIG/VIS VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SOME MVFR CIGS TO WORK IN AFT 09Z AS BAND OF LOWERED
CIGS MOVE SE OUT OF CANADA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE
GENERALLY SE 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN WRN ND. BEHIND THE
LOW...EXPECT GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP IN COLD ADVECTION.
THUS...SHOWED TREND OF INCREASING WINDS AROUND THE 12-16Z TIME
FRAME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...TG/RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOPKINS







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