Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 290447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Tweeked sky and temps a bit. Clearing has worked into TVF area.
Clouds holding in the far east however and will keep that. Spread
out more patchy fog and lowered temps in a few areas.
 Red River seeing a few cloud patches. Didnt alter low temps.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper low will continue to slowly slide southeastward towards
the Ohio Valley during this time, with upper ridging building
across the northern plains. Skies have been gradually clearing
along and west of the Red River Valley this afternoon, and
generally expect this trend to continue farther east overnight.
However, some clouds likely will persist, especially over parts of
northwest MN and perhaps into the valley. With light winds and
relatively moist low levels, some fog formation is possible during
the early morning hours. Expect lows generally around 40, but with
some variability in temps over the region, cooler locations could
potentially see some 30s and patchy frost. Diurnal cumulus likely
will develop on Thursday in addition to any cloud cover that
persists overnight, with the greatest coverage across northwest
MN. With more sunshine and some weak low-level warm advection
behind the surface high, temps on Thursday should climb a few
degrees higher than today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Thursday night through Saturday...Upper level low over Indiana
and is forecast to wobble over the Ohio Valley through the period.
Upper forecast to fill slowly. Moisture around the system will
decrease but does increase again by late in the period as low
level flow becomes southeast. Upper level ridge will build over
southern Canada through the period. Little or no precip expected.

Saturday night through Wednesday...Long wave trough off the coast
of western North America shifts into central North America by the
end of the period. Long wave ridge over central Canada will shift
into eastern Canada by day 7. Long wave upper low over the OH
Valley will fill and slowly move northeast.

Both the ECMWF and the GFS were trending a little faster and farther
north over the last couple model runs. Both the ECMWF and the GFS
were trending slower in later periods. Will blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Sun. Highs on Mon were
increased a degree, Tue increased two degrees, and Wed was increased
3 to 5 degrees from this mornings forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Expect some MVFR and low end VFR cigs to continue at Bemidji into
Thursday. Otherwise TVF area has scattered out but not impossible
they could go back into the clouds. Otherwise mainly clear in E ND
but patchy fog forming and may play havoc through the morning.




LONG TERM...Hoppes
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