Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170552

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1252 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Mid level forcing associated with a weaker wave continues to bring
precipitation to far southern portions of the CWA, with a few
locations potentially picking up 0.10-0.20". The precipitation has
been gradually sliding ESE, a trend that will continue the rest
of this afternoon. At the surface, an area of high pressure
continues to push east, with winds turning southeasterly with
time. While sustained speeds have generally been around 10-15 MPH,
gusts have been higher than expected, occasionally gusting to
near 25 MPH. The precipitation/greater sky cover has kept temps in
the 50s across the far south, with mid/upper 60s further north as
of 3 PM.

For this evening/overnight, kept PoPs out for this evening,
thinking is that ongoing precip will push SE of the CWA by/near
00Z. Out to the west, models have been showing the potential for
some scattered precipitation along an area of lower/mid level
convergence to develop and move east. Kept the forecast dry, as
these same models have activity diminishing before reaching
western portions of the CWA, though some have it being a close
call. Overnight lows in the lower 40s are expected. A weak surface
pattern looks to bring light/variable winds later tonight across
the area, but models showing the better fog potential remaining
outside of the CWA to the WSW, so kept any mention out of the
forecast. Will be a few things for the evening/overnight crew to

Into tomorrow, the forecast remains dry, with upper level zonal
flow in place and a lack of any notable disturbances. Winds turn
more solidly to the SSE, as a sfc low/trough axis deepens along
the High Plains. Sustained speeds near 15 MPH are expected, as are
afternoon wind gusts near 25 MPH. Expecting partly cloudy skies,
with highs reaching into the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

The start of the long term period Monday evening remains dry, but
precipitation chances will be working their way back into the
forecast. After midnight Monday night and through the day on
Tuesday, the area will be affected by an upper level disturbance
crossing the Plains. The brunt of the better lift/precipitation
chances are expected to be well north of the CWA across the
Dakotas with the main low/better LLJ forcing, but lift trailing to
the south crosses our area. Precipitation looks to start
affecting western portions of the area around 09-12Z Tuesday,
pushing east through the day, but models generally agree with
better chances of scattered precip coming during the first half of
the day. This disturbance pushes a weaker sfc boundary south
through the area, with models showing it setting up over the
southern half of the CWA by 00Z Wednesday. Highs for Tuesday look
to top out in the lower/mid 70s.

There may be a bit of a lull in precipitation at some point late
Tuesday afternoon/evening as the area sits in between rounds of
better lift, but with that frontal boundary meandering around,
chances aren`t zero. During the evening/overnight hours Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning, models are in good agreement showing the
development of a 50+kt LLJ nosing in from the south, so expect
coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity to increase across the
area. The thunderstorm chances continue on in through the
day/evening on Wednesday, though lift from the veering LLJ wanes,
lift from a passing upper level disturbance increases. Models at
this point are mainly affecting the northern half of the CWA, but
the southern half bears worth watching as well. This disturbance
will be pushing a reinforcing cold front through the CWA along
with the sfc low, located roughly over the southeastern half
during the late afternoon hours. One thing working against
thunderstorm development along the front is the pretty warm mid
level temps/capping models are showing. Shear/instability values
during this timeframe lead to strong/severe thunderstorm concerns,
and the area sits in the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk area. This
frontal boundary will make for an interesting temperature gradient
across the CWA, the current forecast ranging from near 60 in the
north to near 80 in the south.

The current forecast for Thursday remains dry, with the area
sitting under zonal flow between upper level disturbances.
Forecast highs area in the mid 60s for most locations.

Looks to be an unsettled end of the week, with an upper level low
pressure system pushing through. Though the low crosses the
Plains, there is some model uncertainty with its exact track,
and if it tracks as far south as some show, it`s not going to have
much of an impact on the CWA. Models are in pretty good agreement
showing an overall lack of instability, so just have showers in
the forecast. Will see how things trend in the coming days. Sunday
is dry behind this system, with highs in the lower 60s after 50s
for Fri/Sat.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected today with the just some mid to high
clouds around. However, we expect cloud bases will lower this
evening and we could possibly see some MVFR ceilings by late
evening. The wind will remain generally out of the southeast
throughout the period starting out very light this morning and
then picking up some by afternoon.




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