Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 132358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
658 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The main concerns in the short term are 1. Precipitation potential
tonight/Thursday and  2. Fire weather concerns Thursday.

1. Confidence in precipitation development is relatively low
tonight. There is not a lot of great upper level support and only
a smattering of model solutions indicate the possibility. The
NAM/NAMNest/HRRR/EC all keep the majority of south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas dry. However, there is some
activity developing on the high plains that could continue to move
downstream and impact the area. Due to the uncertainty, have kept
small pops in the forecast moving from west to east during the
overnight hours into early Thursday, but at this time, do not
think it will be a widespread precipitation event.

A surface low will approach central Nebraska from the northwest
during the day Thursday. This will keep winds south to
southwesterly across the area. The south-southwesterly winds will
help mix down drier air and temperatures are expected in the 90s
across most areas...and even approaching 100 in portions of north
central Kansas.

2. The south-southwesterly winds will be breezy over north central
Kansas where the influence of the pressure gradient is felt the
most. The combination of these stronger winds and lower relative
humidities will cause fire danger to be very high. Wind gusts will
be near 20 to 25 mph with relative humidities between 20 to 25
percent. Thus with dry fuels and these dry/breezy conditions fire
weather conditions will be near critical.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

As the remnants of Irma move off to the northeast...southwesterly
flow aloft develops and persists through the remainder of the
long term forecast.

The weak surface front will hangout just to the northwest of the
area through Friday evening when a stronger upper level
disturbance lifts across the area. This disturbance will dislodge
the front with a surge of cool air pushing through. The timing of
the frontal passage is in question. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop along the front Friday evening into Saturday (as it moves
through), but some solutions keep a large chunk of the area
dry...with the better upper support further to the northeast over
northeast Nebraska and into South Dakota. Regardless, this front
does push a fairly significant cool airmass into the region.
Depending on the timing of the front highs on Saturday could
change quite a bit. The quicker NAM has highs in the 60s to low
70s while the slower GFS has highs in the 80s and 90s. The EC is
in the middle of these two solutions.

High pressure will build in Sunday and with a few weak
disturbances moving across the area, there will be precipitation
chances across portions of the area. Highs are expected to be
cooler, in the 70s and 80s. The front looks to lift back to the
north late Sunday and is be the focus for additional thunderstorm
chances Sunday night.

Highs will warm back into the 80s for the work week with southerly
warm air advection. There are various chances for precipitation
through mid-week, but with discrepancies among the guidance,
difficult to have confidence in any one time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

There have been and could be a few more very isolated
thunderstorms off to the west of KEAR and KGRI. However, expect
dry conditions will likely persist at KEAR and KGRI with just a
slight chance of a thunderstorm at either airport from late
evening through Thursday morning. We do expect low level wind
shear to be on the increase this evening and could become strong
by around midnight and persisting through near dawn. Southerly sfc
winds could become a bit breezy for Thursday afternoon.


Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Fire danger will be very high across portions of north central
Kansas Thursday afternoon with the combination of breezy south-
southwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 mph and relative humidities
during the afternoon dropping to 20-25 percent. Coordination with
the Kansas Forest Service indicates that fuels are cured and thus
the breezy winds and low RH values will cause near critical fire
weather conditions.




SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.