Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 251952
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
252 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE GROUND...EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY TRACK
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXPECT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ADVECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
NORTHWARD...AND INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONBLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION...MAKING FOR A PLEASANTLY NICE/WARM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LLVL STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS WITH THE NOSE OF THE
JET ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND THIS AREA
SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CHC IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA IN OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES ON THE BUFFER/EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED H7 LOW
IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE NAM POSITION IS FARTHER NORTH IN
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GFS
POSITION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHEREAS THE NAM SUGGESTS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CHCS INCREASING LATE
AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT
IN TIME WHICH MODEL SOLUTION WILL VERIFY HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
THE NAM SOLUTION ATTM WITH THE BETTER CHCS ARRIVING AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER...BUT HAVE TRENDED READINGS UP IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SFC GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND EXPECT FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR A TIME UNTIL SFC BOUNDARY ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND H87 WITH WINDS AT THE
TOP OF THE LAYER AVERAGING 25KTS OR SO.

EXPECT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE REACH OUR CWA.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEL PROGGED INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WITH HAIL/WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 3MB THURSDAY NIGHT AND LOOK
FOR STEADY/GUSTY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS LINGERING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE SFC HIGH SETTLES
IN. HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND AS
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MIGRATES EAST AGAIN AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES FARTHER INLAND...FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TRANSITIONS
SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND IS MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR SFC BOUNDARY
POSITION TOWARD DAY 7...AS SOME CHC FOR PCPN MAY RETURN. OVERALL
TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL FOR LATE SUMMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO AROUND 90F AND LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO FILTER OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND LIGHT...AT LESS THAN 8 KTS...AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SLOWLY TREKS EAST. FOR
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 18 KTS OR SO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI


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