Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 231934
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
234 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS SHIFT...

ALOFT: A RIDGE WAS OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROF OVER THE WRN USA. THIS LOW WAS OVER UT AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND LATEST 2 RUNS OF NAM/GFS/EC/GEM ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED ON IT MOVING INTO WY BY 00Z...CROSSING THE STATE TONIGHT
AND THEN INTO SW SD TOMORROW.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SE MT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E
THRU SD AND THEN SE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. A PAC COLD FRONT
EXTENDED SW THRU WY/UT/AZ...WITH A LEE TROF EXTENDING S THRU
WY/CO/NM. THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY EJECT INTO SD THIS EVE AND
ESSENTIALLY STALL... AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPR LOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH THE LEE TROF TONIGHT BEFORE
ADVANCING THRU THE FCST AREA TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A SURGE OF E-W
ORIENTED CANADIAN AIR WILL DROP S AND BEGIN SURGING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS A COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z/MON.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: INCREASING THICK CIRROSTRATUS FROM THE W.
WINDY AS S WINDS CONT TO GUST 30-40 KTS.

PEAK GUST THUS FAR 38 KTS AT GRI.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST IN SOUTH DAKOTA...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES 2000 J/KG AND
EXPECT THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT DRY. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH THAT DRIFTS
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL MILD.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FIRST WAVE COMES IN FROM THE LOW. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
EAST WINDS THAT BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE MANY
SIMILARITIES WITH THE UPPER LOW STACKING WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO IOWA AND
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION LINGERING...BUT SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT DURING THE NIGHT.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. THEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: STRONG CROSSWINDS ON RWY 13/31 AT BOTH APTS.
LLWS AND POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING AROUND 25K FT.
STRONG S WINDS GUSTING 34-40 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS MOSTLY AT OR ABOVE 13K FT...
UNTIL A BRIEF WINDOW FOR TSRA`S WITH MVFR VSBYS. THEN SOME LOWER
CLOUDS 4-7K FT MOVE IN FOR A TIME. LLWS PRIOR TO 09Z WITH S WINDS
CONT TO G30 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SUN THRU 18Z: PROBABLY VFR. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF STRATUS
FORMATION AND HAVE INCLUDED SCT020 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. S WINDS
10-15 KTS BECOME SW. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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