Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 031045
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
545 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THIS FIRST 24 HOURS IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. SOME PESKY SHOWERS FROM YORK TO HEBRON CONTINUE TO
HANG ON...AND SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL END OF SHORT
WAVE TO THE EAST AND UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH.
THOSE LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
A NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND WEAK SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. ALSO SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 2-4 MILES BUT NOTHING TOO LOW YET. WILL WATCH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AS POTENTIAL THICKER FOG POTENTIAL WITH
BEST RADIATIVE CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND
WHATEVER FOG THERE IS WILL LIFT/DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING.

THE CHALLENGE THIS PM IS WHETHER THERE IS REALLY MUCH CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR ISOLATED T-STORM. THE AREA WILL ACTUALLY START
TO SEE SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DO
BELIEVE THAT MAKES THE RISK FOR RAIN LESS THAN THURSDAY WITH THE
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT NOT SURE IT MEANS THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER EITHER. WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT
TO COMPLETE YANK ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY SPARSE. HI RES HRRR ONE MODEL AT LEAST HINTING AT
SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. WILL KEEP THE 15-20% CHANCES
ROLLING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THERE ARE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL.

THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW
POPS IN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THAT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DURING THE MORNING...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DURING THE EVENING
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OUT MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY EVENING THE MUCAPES ARE OVER
3000 J/KG EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT QUICKLY DECREASE LATER IN THE
EVENING.

ON MONDAY A SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...KEEPING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE A FEW
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE...THE
SURFACE LOW AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION THERE COULD BE WITH THE
SYSTEM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND KEARNEY
DURING THE FIRST 4-6 HOURS OF THE TAF FORECAST. CEILINGS WILL
LINGER AT OR BELOW 1K AND BE A BIT MORE UNIFORM THROUGH MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN SITES...AND MAY
FLUCTUATE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
NOTED BY NOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THEREAFTER AND NO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ



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