Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
622 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

I`ve maintained low PoPs through the early morning hours as there is
some isentropic upglide in the the 315K layer. A few spotty showers
have managed to develop, and the HRRR keeps a few in the vicinity as
well. That said, the overwhelming majority of the area will stay
completely dry.

Also this morning, we may see some patchy fog, mainly west of
Highway 281. Despite the cloud cover, the Kearney, Ord, Lexington,
and Holdredge areas have reported reduced visibilities due to the
abundant low-level moisture. If winds can drop off sufficiently,
locally dense fog isn`t completely out of the question, but my
expectation that there will be enough wind to keep it from being a
widespread issue.

The rest of the day should be pretty quiet weather-wise, albeit
quite warm and muggy. Southerly winds will become breezy this
afternonn, with gusts around 20-25 MPH possible at times. These
winds will be welcomed, though. High temperatures in the mid 90s
to low 100s will couple with dewpoints in the 60s-70s to produce
heat index values in the low to mid 100s across the entire area.

The excessive heat warning has been maintained in areas that will
likely see heat indices in the 105 degree range for several days,
and the heat advisory has been maintained for the rest of the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Subtropical ridge will be in full force for Thursday and Friday,
with an excessive heat watch in place for this period as the heat
index will top 100, and therefore the heat headlines will still be
in place. As a cold front sags south and the progression of a
shortwave trough into the Northern Plains causes modest height falls
by Friday afternoon, we could have just enough of a focus along the
front with afternoon instability to give us a strong to severe
thunderstorms near the cold front.

The ridge weakens and retreats somewhat over the weekend into next
week with highs in the 80s by Sunday, but also allowing more
shortwave trough activity in, and allowing some thunderstorm
activity from time to time, especially late Monday night with a
potential low-level jet developing, and surface boundary possibly
close by. Although cooler next week, temperatures will still be
fairly typical for this time of year with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected today. Southerly winds of 10 to 15
kts with gusts around 20 kts are expected during the afternoon.

Tonight, LLWS is expected to develop as the low-level jet
increases. It appears that the most likely timeframe will be from
4Z to 12Z.


NE...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT
     Friday for NEZ064-076-077-085>087.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT
     Friday for KSZ006-007-018-019.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ005-017.



SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.