Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 070922
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
422 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS THE NEXT ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

THE CWA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS...AND HIGH PRESSURE SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE WRN CONUS.
HASNT BEEN A COMPLETELY QUIET NIGHT...AS A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION...AND AIDED BY
INCREASED MID LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NOT TOO MUCH BEYOND MIDNIGHT. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WASNT ANYTHING TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT...BUT MODEST
AMOUNTS OF MUCAPE ALLOWED FOR CORES TO RISE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
HAIL. HAD ONE REPORT OF NICKELS SW OF HENDERSON...BUT SUSPECT
THERE WAS SOME LARGER HAIL AT VARIOUS POINTS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS E/SE MOVING ACTIVITY HAS WANED A BIT OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A PRETTY WEAK PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH A FAIRLY
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WINDS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE LIGHT/VARIABLE.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY SLIDES OUT OF
THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THAT THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS SHOULD BE QUIET. FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAKINGS ITS WAY E/SE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. IN RESPONSE TO THIS DISTURBANCE SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE
CWA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CENTERING IT OVER THE NE/KS/CO
BORDER AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CWA...WHILE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE N/NW. EXPECTING THAT CAPPING WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...UNTIL THE BETTER UPPER
LEVEL FORCING AND THE SFC FRONT ARRIVES TO GET THINGS GOING. AS
FAR AS TIMING OF THE FRONT GOES...MODELS ARENT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT AROUND THE HIGHWAY 6 CORRIDOR BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME VARIATION WITH JUST HOW QUICKLY
THINGS ACTUALLY FIRE. THINKING REMAINS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL COME THE CLOSER TO 00Z WE GET AND AFTER...AND THATS WHERE THE
BETTER POPS CONTINUE TO BE. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
GOOD S/SE PROGRESS OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND BY 12Z
TUESDAY EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING TO SEE MOISTURE
POOLING SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH DEWPOINTS AGAIN WELL
INTO THE 60S/NEAR 70 FOR MANY LOCATIONS...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 60 IN THE SW WHERE MODELS SUGGEST BETTER MIXING
WILL OCCUR. AS USUAL...DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGES MAKE FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES DIFFICULT. THE SRN CWA SHOULD AGAIN MAKE IT UP NEAR
THE 100 DEGREE MARK...ESP IF THINGS MIX AS MODELS SHOW. FURTHER
NORTH WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER/MIXING POTENTIAL NOT AS
GOOD...HAVE MID/UPPER 80S IN THE NORTH TO MID/UPPER 90S NEAR THE
NEB/KS STATE LINE.

EXPECTING HEFTY MUCAPE VALUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF 30-40 KTS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL A CONCERN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HAIL/WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERN...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION...AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

LOOKING AT THE PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES WE WILL HAVE RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF. THE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF WILL BE MAINTAINED LATER THIS WEEK BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLIGHTLY DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART
OF THE CONUS BEFORE PUSHES EAST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON....WE WILL BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD DRY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S. IN FACT...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR IN BOTH HIGHS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...BUT OUR KANSAS COUNTIES COULD BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER
80S.

AFTER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST
SHOT AT ANY RAINFALL. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
STRONG...OR PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS
UP...MAINLY AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE TRANSITION OF A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER LOW CHANCE PRECIPITATION OUTCOME...ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN COUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE FARTHER NORTH TO NORTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO WE COULD MISS OUT ON PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME IF THE LLJ REMAINS FARTHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

TO SOME DEGREE...BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST A VORTICITY MAX WILL
ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MAGNITUDE AND OVERALL TRACK DIFFER...SO CONFIDENCE IS RATHER
LOW LOOKING THIS FAR OUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THIS COULD BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH
HIGHS RANGING ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS
WE CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. IN
FACT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE MORE ON THE ABOVE NORMAL SIDE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWERS 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD LIE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
GOING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL START OUT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE N/NE. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO MENTION
IN THE TAF. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN...AND WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS MENTION.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...GUERRERO
AVIATION...ADO



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