Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
540 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Overview...A weak cold front is tracking southeast across the
forecast area this morning while we are still under the influence
of a upper level ridge. The frontal passage is dry and it will be
only slightly cooler behind the front today. With a light north
wind today expect highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Temperatures for today are pretty close to the superblend
guidance, but did go slightly cooler than superblend with the
lows tonight in many spots, especially our northwestern cold air
drainage locations. Other changes were to lower dewpoints this
afternoon when we see the best mixing closer to the drier met/mav
guidance rather than the overly moist superblend. Dewpoints will
be close to that critical 20 percent for fire weather concerns,
but the north wind should begin to die down by mid afternoon as
the pressure gradient weakens. Thus due to weaker winds am
not overly concerned for fire danger.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Primary forecast concern continues to lie with Tuesday precipitation

Overall there hasn`t been any notable changes to the forecast to
start off the long term period on Mon/Mon night, remaining a dry
one. Upper level ridging is expected to in place across the Plains,
set up between troughing over both coasts. At the surface, not
looking to see any big changes through Mon night. The CWA sits with
south-southeasterly winds, thanks to high pressure extending from
Ontario into the Midwest and a trough axis over the High Plains.
Highs are forecast to be a touch above normal for this time of
year, reaching into the mid 60s to near 70.

Upper level flow turns more zonal as we get into Tuesday, the ridge
continues sliding east and a shortwave disturbance is making its way
toward the area. A few models are trying to show a chance of some
precip early Tuesday morning along the nose of a 30-ish kt LLJ/WAA,
but until that feature can get more support, will keep things dry.
Tuesday afternoon/evening continues to be the timeframe with the
better chances for precipitation, as the main upper level shortwave
trough crosses the Central Plains. Focus for precip development
looks to be along a surface frontal boundary through the area,
though latest model runs showing that it`s not exactly the most
organized boundary. Still looking at the potential for at least some
strong thunderstorms, as models continue to show an axis of near 60
deg points nosing into mainly eastern portions of the CWA and MUCAPE
values possibly near 1000 j/kg. Deeper layer shear is on the lower
end of things. Warmer temps are expected, forecast highs for Tuesday
are in the 70s for the majority of the CWA. Far southern portions
could hit the 80 deg mark. Precip expected to come to an end late
Tues night.

For the remainder of the long term period Wed-Sat, the forecast is
dry. Once Tuesday`s shortwave disturbance pushes east, models are in
good agreement showing ridging amplifying over the Rockies, keeping
northwesterly flow in place over the area. A cool front accompanying
the system on Tuesday looks to cool highs back into the mid 60s-
lower 70s for Wednesday, before temps climb back into CWA-wide 70s
by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected. The primary aviation
concern will really continue to center on the strong low level
wind shear early this morning. There is a strong northerly wind of
over 40 kts at around 1,500 ft AGL behind the cold front, which
has passed southeast of our TAF sites. The low level wind shear
will quickly decrease around and after 9 am this morning.




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