Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191147

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
647 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

A warm front across the high plains early this morning will progress
eastward through the afternoon hours bringing very mild temperature
to the region. With mixing forecast to at least 850 MB and temps at
this level warming 10C+ degrees from yesterday...we should see
readings hit the low to mid 80s in many spots. While not out of the least near record highs are expected...with the
current high temperatures records for both Grand Island and Hastings
dating all the way back to the 1920s. The actual records for today
can be found in the climate section below.

With these unseasonably warm temperatures, it is not surprising that
relative humidity values will plummet this afternoon, despite more
moist air advecting in from the south. While afternoon relative
humidities will likely dip below 30 percent in many spots later
today...winds are expected to remain fairly light - at 10 mph or
less most of the day - which will help alleviate any fire weather
concerns later this afternoon.

After a very mild afternoon...expect a slightly cooler airmass to
begin to encroach from the north as a cold front moves across the
northern portion of the state. While the significantly cooler air
will not infiltrate the local area until Monday...we should see
temperatures drop off fairly nicely overnight as cold air advection
begins across the local area. No precipitation is forecast ahead of
this front and dry weather is anticipated to continue for at least
the next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

With a few chances for precipitation this forecast period, this
looks to be an active few days. Initially, the week will start
cooler but dry Monday in a post frontal north-northeast, cold
advection flow throughout the day. Even though we will be 20 degrees
colder than Sunday, highs Monday will still average 8 to 13 degrees
above normal.

Tuesday is a whole notch colder and introduces light rain or
rain/snow chances for the much of the area. The last couple
of days model trends seem to favor northeast Nebraska with
the best shot at a narrow band of decent precipitation. The expected
precipitation band is related to a passing upper jet streak along
with weak upper wave. Further south, in south central Nebraska and
north central Kansas, precipitation does look light, generally less
than 0.10", but at least some precipitation does look more and more
likely. Some concern about dry air advection from the east keeping
things drier to start. Highs Tuesday will be below normal. If
precipitation does manage to establish itself better, the current
middle/upper 40s could be too warm.

Tuesday night and Wednesday we see broad warm advection in advance
of the incoming trough. Reasonable model agreement with light rain
or snow developing to the west and migrating east overnight, and
lingering into Wednesday. Again, precipitation amounts looks light
and probably less than 0.05". Wednesday will be the 2nd below normal
day in a row.

The main precipitation chance expected this week moves into the
Central Plains Thursday and Friday. An upper level low pressure
emerges out of the Rockies in the vicinity of Kansas. While rain is
no guarantee, this appears to be best shot for some fairly
substantial and somewhat widespread precipitation in about two
months (mid-January). The general scenario is moisture and some
instability pump into the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday
aboard increasing south/southeast winds. While some light showers
are possible Thursday, the main precipitation chances look to begin
Thursday night on the nose of a low-level jet. EC/GFS both have
significant convective QPF in northern Nebraska Thursday night and
then expand a frontogenetically forced area of rain across a good
chunk of the area into Friday as the low spins onto the Plains. The
system moves out of the area Saturday. Mild conditions are likely
ahead of the main front but wouldn`t be surprised if it turned out
to be a bit colder both Friday and Saturday than currently forecast.
Again, wouldn`t take this to the bank just yet, but its reasonable
to think some locations in the area could pick up 0.50 to 0.75" of
precipitation out of this system. On the flip side, there will
likely be a few areas in a dry slot which could lead to very little
precipitation. As the previous AFD mentioned, a more active pattern
appears likely into early April. Good news for the dry ground and
recent fire weather related issues.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with only some
passing high level clouds from time to time. Expect the LLWS
evident in VWP to diminish over the next couple of hours...with
generally light winds working their way across the terminals as an
area of low pressure encroaches from the west. Winds will
eventually shift and become northerly late in the period as a cold
front crosses the terminals around midnight tonight.


Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

While high temperatures are forecast to remain in the lower 80s this
afternoon, it is not out of the question that near...or potentially
record temperatures...might be realized if conditions warm a bit
more than currently forecast. With that in mind, the record
temperatures for Sunday, March 19th are as follows:

                  RECORD HIGH TEMP        YEAR
GRAND ISLAND:             86              1921
HASTINGS:                 84              1921

For comparison, the normal high temperatures for both Grand Island
and Hastings today is 53 degrees. Enjoy the unseasonably warm temps
this afternoon!




LONG TERM...Moritz
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