Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170536

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1136 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Fcst hourly temps/dwpts were running too cold compared to obs. So
blended current obs with consensus of high-res model temps/dwpts
thru 09Z. No changes were made to tonight`s low temp fcst.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Synopsis...Satellite water vapor imagery shows upper low
continuing to pull out and was located over northeast KS at 19Z.
System vertically stacked as surface low was over KMHK at that
time. 1023 mb high pressure in NW Neb resulting in decent pressure
gradient across NE & KS and winds have picked up some the past few
hours. Temps continue to hover right around the freezing mark,
give or take 2 degrees. If it were two degrees cooler near the
surface, the impact would have been much worse. As it is, still
receiving reports of random power outages, tree damage, slick
roads, etc.

Overall, this scenario is playing out pretty much as expected.
The only exception might be the delay of the mid level colder air,
and thus we are not seeing the change over to snow yet. Some
western and SW sites have reported sleet. With the upper low
progressing northeast, am having doubts about receiving much in
the way of measurable snow. Have been monitoring cc images from
both KUEX and KLNX but so far am not seeing the transition to
snow, at least from the radar data.

As far as timing an end to the precipitation, still looks to be
between 6 pm and midnight, from west to east. Can see back edge on
KLNX radar, roughly from KANW to KLBF. Individual elements
swinging south while the entire cluster shifts east. Have decided
to leave headlines as is for now. Radar trends have begun to
decrease past 30 minutes and might be able to let them go early,
or downgrade to advisory in a while.

Much quieter day on Tuesday as surface high pressure moves over
the CWA and plenty of sunshine prevails.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Active pattern continues. By Tuesday evening, the low pressure
system currently affecting us should have filled a bit and be
located over the Great Lakes region. Meanwhile another low deepens
in the desert SW and then it slowly meanders ENE and should be
located somewhere in KS by Thurs. It will take a while for the
moisture return and thus not expecting any precip with this low in
our area. That said, some of the model forecast soundings do show
a chance for light drizzle Thur morning so that will need to be

On the heels of that system, the next wave is slated to move into
the Rockies by Friday morning. For next weekend, the overall
pattern has ridging in the eastern conus and troughing in the west
with a deep upper low moving onto the Pacific NW. This should give
us off and on chances for precip Fri-Sun. As far as type, a quick
look at the thermal profile shows both rain and snow possible.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Significant Wx: None.

GRI remains closed until 12Z/Tue. No obs are available either.

Rest of tonight: VFR. Sct clouds will remain for a little while
longer...but the overall trend is clearing. NW winds 10 kts or
less. Confidence: High

Tue: VFR SKC. Lgt NW winds under 10 kts gradually back thru W to
WSW. Confidence: High

Tue eve thru 06Z: VFR SKC. Lgt SW winds under 10 kts.




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