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000
FXUS63 KICT 050926
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
326 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSED AS 12-24 HOURS AGO WITH ACCUMULATING
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT- TERM GUIDANCE
DIVES MAIN BRUNT OF UPPER ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND DRASTICALLY WEAKENS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. LATEST
HRRR...RAP AND NAM COMPLETELY FIZZLE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT EVEN
REACHES THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY BE RIGHT IF FRONTOGENESIS
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSER WITH THE
MORE CONSISTENT 00Z GFS. THAT SAID...THINKING HIGHEST LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL BE OVER PRIMARILY CENTRAL KS FROM ABOUT MID-MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES DECREASING AND SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. BEST GUESS ON ACCUMULATIONS ARE
AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OVER CENTRAL KS...AND LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ...EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST KS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OVER
THE REGION...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THURSDAY HIGHS TO REACH THE 40S AND
50S...WARMEST FOR SNOW-FREE AREAS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOULD SEE GOOD WARMING AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH DENSE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TEMPER
MAXES SOME. 40S-50S ANTICIPATED OVER CENTRAL KS AND MID/UPPER 50S
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY STORM SYSTEM. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS BRUNT OF UPPER
ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION MOSTLY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. HOWEVER...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW RUNS NOW
KEEPING THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE WRAPPED UP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN FACT WOULD BE A HEALTHY ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY 40 POPS AND WAIT
FOR BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT. WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
IN AND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMING A BIT MORE ZONAL...ANTICIPATING A
NICE WARM UP BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THINKING
HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS REGION FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION ON WED. A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT WITH SATURATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT LEADING TO A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW FOR CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON WED...WITH THE MVFR CIG/VSBYS FOLLOWING IT SOUTH.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST WED MAR 5 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF WINDY & DRY DAYS WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR MOST DAYS THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. THE EXCEPTIONS MAY BE THURSDAY AND SUNDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES WARM AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SOME. BUT
DEFINITELY NOWHERE CLOSE TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  16  47  31 /  50  30   0   0
HUTCHINSON      35  17  48  31 /  50  10   0   0
NEWTON          35  17  47  31 /  50  30   0   0
ELDORADO        39  20  48  31 /  40  40   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  17  45  31 /  50  50   0   0
RUSSELL         34  16  55  33 /  60   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      33  15  53  33 /  60   0   0   0
SALINA          34  17  50  32 /  60  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       35  17  47  31 /  50  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     43  23  45  29 /  20  40   0   0
CHANUTE         45  22  48  30 /  30  40   0   0
IOLA            45  22  48  31 /  30  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    44  22  47  30 /  20  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$