Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011211
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
711 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE SHOULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. -JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS
ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY. -RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NRN OK...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
E-NE FOR THE MORNING HOURS. POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KCNU TAF SITE FOR
THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU AS WARM ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER MORNING CONCERN WILL BE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE KRSL TAF
AS THE STATIONARY WARM FRONT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH
SATURATION IN THE COOLER AIR PRODUCING THIS THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG.
SOME CONCERN THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND POSSIBLY
REACH THE KSLN TAF AS WELL...BUT THINK IT WILL STOP PROGRESSING EAST
AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING THIS DECK TO THE HALT BEFORE REACHING KSLN
BEFORE BEGINNING TO ERODE. SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE KSLN TAF.
THINK THIS CLOUD/FOG DECK WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z...AS
SUNSHINE BURNS IT OFF AND MIXING INCREASES.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE
AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BULGE
EAST TOWARDS THE KHUT/KICT TAF SITES. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS THINK
THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY WEST OF THIS AREA...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
BY AROUND 00Z/THU. ONCE THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SEVERE
STORMS NEAR THE KHUT/KICT/KSLN/KRSL TAF SITES...SO WILL NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR GUSTY WINDS +TSRA WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES...AS STORMS
COME INTO FOCUS.

THINK MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT..SO WILL GO
WITH VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES.  SFC LOW LOOKS TO MOVE E-NE
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW ON THU
AM.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  51 /  20  60  40  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  49 /  30  50  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  50 /  30  60  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  51 /  30  60  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  51 /  40  60  40  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  46 /  20  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  47 /  20  50  30  10
SALINA          83  61  69  49 /  20  70  40  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  49 /  30  60  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  77  52 /  60  60  70  20
CHANUTE         84  67  76  51 /  60  70  70  20
IOLA            83  67  76  51 /  50  70  70  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  77  51 /  60  60  70  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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