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000
FXUS63 KICT 010441
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1141 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD BUT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE ~10F BELOW
NORMAL WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TONIGHT:
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
TOWARD DAY BREAK WHERE DAMP GROUNDS & LIGHT WIND WOULD FAVOR SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. (AS WAS THE CASE EARLY THIS MORNING.) THE POSSIBLE
INHIBITOR IS THAT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8,000-10,000FT ALTOCU)
THAT`LL SPREAD SE CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS AROUND MID-NIGHT. FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE HAVE KEPT
"PATCHY FOG" APPLIED TO SOUTHEAST KS.

FRI;
SHOULD IT DEVELOP THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS WILL
DISSIPATE BY 10 AM. WARMER WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS A WEAK
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
MID-UPPER MS VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES AS A LARGE & FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER DECK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SLOWLY SE FROM THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
FROM 85-90F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED SAT & SUN AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE CENTRAL &
SOUTH CENTRAL KS TUE NIGHT AS A BROAD POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
TROF MOVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL EXPERIENCE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
BORDER WED EVENING. WITH THE SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROF EXTENDING
SW ACROSS KS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN A NW-SE
MANNER WED NIGHT & THU AS THE SE-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWEEPS
A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS KS. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG
WITH BOTH SMALL HAIL & 40-50 MPH GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR PRIMARILY
CNU...WHERE VSBYS COULD GO IFR OR LOWER...DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS. COULD
SEE PATCHY MVFR-IFR VSBYS AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ICT-HUT...ALTHOUGH
LOWER MOISTURE VALUES...BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HAMPER THESE LOWER VSBYS
FROM FORMING. FURTHERMORE...A WEAK WIND SHIFT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING MAY PROMOTE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE
VICINITY OF ICT-SLN-HUT. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
DID NOT MENTION IN 06Z ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  88  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          62  88  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        62  86  64  88 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   63  87  66  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         64  90  63  90 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      62  91  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          64  90  64  89 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       63  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     62  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            62  86  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  87  65  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$