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000
FXUS63 KICT 072039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL
WAVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO KANSAS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TONIGHT AND LOW-LEVEL SATURATION JUST BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
GENERATE A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF A GREAT
BEND TO WICHITA...TO WINFIELD LINE WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO TWO INCHES. WE WILL HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST FOR 2
INCH AMOUNTS AND LATER SHIFTS COULD EXPAND THE ADVISORY FURTHER
EAST IF THE COLDER AIR SHIFTS EAST. THE KEY WILL BE IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW A NON DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE FOR SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...WITH
A LATE AFTERNOON RALLY POSSIBLE AS CLOUDS SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE STAR SHINING BRIGHTLY
ACROSS KANSAS ALONG WITH A PLEASANT WARMING TREND THIS PERIOD.
PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHERE THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT LOW
TO MID 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

ANOTHER WARM DAY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR KANSAS TUESDAY...HOW WARM
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS KANSAS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEING TO WARM FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

LIGHT MIXED WINTRY PRECIP EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING. SOME POST FRONTAL
MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THRU MIDDAY SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO EXPECTED
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    29  36  24  60 /  60  70  10   0
HUTCHINSON      27  39  25  63 /  60  60   0   0
NEWTON          28  37  24  60 /  50  60  10   0
ELDORADO        30  35  23  58 /  50  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  35  23  59 /  70  80  10   0
RUSSELL         26  46  28  66 /  30  20   0   0
GREAT BEND      27  44  27  65 /  50  60   0   0
SALINA          28  43  26  64 /  30  40   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  40  25  63 /  50  60   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  38  23  58 /  60  70  20   0
CHANUTE         32  36  21  56 /  50  70  10   0
IOLA            31  36  22  56 /  50  70  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    33  37  22  56 /  50  70  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
KSZ082-091.

&&

$$