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000
FXUS63 KICT 231717
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1217 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Clusters of showers/storms should continue to gradually shift
south and become less numerous this morning, along and ahead of a
700-500 mb trough axis. Isolated redevelopment is possible
throughout the day over mainly southern KS with daytime heating.
However, thinking the greatest potential will remain south of the
KS/OK border, where low-level convergence will be maximized along
convectively- induced frontal zone.

Otherwise, temperatures will "cool" back to normal levels in the
90s today. Pooling dewpoints in wake of the front may lead to heat
indices approaching 105 degrees over far southeast KS, so will
continue excessive heat warning there through 8 PM.

Upper level high pressure will begin building back across Mid-
America Monday-Tuesday, supporting a return to near triple digit
heat by Tuesday. Cannot rule out a stray thunderstorm or two
Monday- Tuesday afternoons across the area due to a weak cap and
weak frontal zone washing back north, but definitely nothing
widespread.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Medium range consensus supports another cold front progressing
south across the region Wednesday night/Thursday, as a shortwave
progresses across the northern CONUS. This will support another
chance of thunderstorms Wednesday evening through Friday.
Furthermore, confidence continues to increase that the upper ridge
will retrograde west once again, while a longwave trough deepens
across the eastern CONUS. This will support a return to near
normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s Friday into the
weekend, but not before triple digit heat Wednesday areawide, and
possibly Thursday over southern/southeast KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions thorughout the forecast period. With a boundary
still lurking across southern Kansas along with a moist atmospher
and ample heating, I have kept VCTS in the tafs at KICT and KCNU.
If they develop this afternoon, I expect them to be isolated in
nature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  70  95  74 /  20  20  20  10
Hutchinson      93  69  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          91  69  94  73 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        91  69  94  73 /  20  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   95  70  95  74 /  20  30  20  20
Russell         94  67  97  74 /  10   0  10  10
Great Bend      93  68  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          95  68  98  75 /  10   0  10  10
McPherson       93  69  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
Coffeyville     95  70  95  74 /  30  20  10  10
Chanute         92  69  94  72 /  20  10  10  10
Iola            90  69  93  72 /  20  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    95  69  94  73 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ095-
096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CWH