Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 222344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
544 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SAT NIGHT-SUN:
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AS STIFF SOUTH WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT. COMBO OF
WINDS/CLOUDS WILL KEEP MINIMUMS QUITE MILD. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK...WICHITA AROUND
NOON...AND EXIT SOUTHEAST KS AROUND SUNSET. SHARPLY COLDER
AIR/FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE AS NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA. WARMING AHEAD OF FRONT WILL
RESULT IN AN EARLY DAY HIGH AROUND 60. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
FAIRLY GOOD IN SOUTHEAST KS EARLY IN THE MORNING IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION...THEN MORE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF AND BEHIND FRONT
IN THE AFTERNOON. APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION LIQUID THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER INTO SUN EVENING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS.

MON-TUE:
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BY TUE. INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW...DRY AIR AND CONSIDERABLE
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY NICE WARMUP THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH WIND AT NIGHT TO MODERATE THE MINIMUMS AS
WELL. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GOOD LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR THAT COULD ARRIVE ON
THU DURING THE DAY. THIS IS NOW NEARLY 24 HOURS LATER THAN
YESTERDAY RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THERE WILL BE A FRONT
LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT TIMING IS SERIOUSLY SUSPECT. MADE VERY
LITTLE CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE AVIATION OUTLOOK REMAINS SEMI-GRIM WITH MVFR/IFR CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. CEILINGS HAVE RISEN THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST
ADVECTION...RADIATIONAL COOLING AND SLIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS COULD BE PRESENT BY MORNING...BUT HAVE REMAINED
OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT WITH IFR.

THE CHANGE WILL COME AS THE COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA...THIS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO RISE...EVENTUALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY TO VFR. HOWEVER...THE LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
BE REPLACED WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECT WINDS FROM 26-30 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KTS.

THE FRONT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID MORNING AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AT KCNU.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  61  31  50 /  20  60  10   0
HUTCHINSON      53  56  31  50 /  20  60  10   0
NEWTON          54  62  31  48 /  20  70  10   0
ELDORADO        54  61  31  48 /  30  70  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  60  32  51 /  20  60  10  10
RUSSELL         47  48  30  48 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      48  50  30  50 /  10  20  10   0
SALINA          52  56  31  48 /  20  60  10   0
MCPHERSON       53  57  30  48 /  20  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     53  62  34  52 /  50  70  30  10
CHANUTE         53  61  32  49 /  50  70  30  10
IOLA            53  61  31  47 /  50  70  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    53  61  34  50 /  50  70  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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