Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231533

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1033 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Issued at 1033 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

15z surface analysis showed quasi-stationary boundary draped
from just north of Iola, KS to Wichita to near Medicine Lodge.
Elevated convection associated with MCV in southwest Kansas
continues to develop eastward along instability axis just
north of front. Earlier runs of HRRR/RAP seemed to have a
better handle on short term trends over recent runs with
continued development eastward through the early afternoon
generally along/south of Hwy 56. While initially elevated
along/north of Hwy 50, expect some surface based storms
along/south of stalled front from the Wichita area eastward
across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas durng the
afternoon. Rather high precipitable water values and slow
movement will support heavy rainfall. Deep layer shear while
modest should also allow for strong to marginally severe storms
with some hail and downburst wind potential through the afternoon.



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Forecast highlight is periodic thunderstorm chances the next
several days.

Dying complex of storms is currently inching east over the
central and southern High Plains, with a quasi-stationary frontal
zone situated west-east across middle portions of Kansas.
Temperature-wise, suspect dense cirrus emanating from current
southern High Plains activity should tend to suppress afternoon
heating today, so probably looking at highs mostly in the low-mid
90s, although upper 80s are possible portions of central KS.

Thunderstorm-wise, expecting at the very least isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the frontal
zone mainly this afternoon, supported by the approaching mid-
level convectively-induced disturbance. The highest chances
should generally be between I-70 and northern OK. As advertised
by many of the short-term hi-res models, could be looking at
somewhat higher thunderstorm coverage than expected, especially if
current southern High Plains activity is able to survive the next
several hours and re-intensifies as it approaches the forecast
area early this afternoon. Regardless of coverage, likely not
looking at a widespread severe weather episode given weak flow
aloft/deep layer shear, although ample instability will promote a
handful of strong/severe storms, with localized occurrences of
damaging winds and large hail as well. Hail threat will subside by
sunset with loss of heating. Additionally, above normal
precipitable waters and expected slow storm motion will promote
locally very heavy rain, supporting pockets of flooding.
Strengthening low-level jet should allow storm activity to
persist or even increase in coverage overnight, with continued
pockets of strong to damaging winds and locally heavy rain

Front is expected to wash out back north Friday as southerly flow
increases. There may be lingering showers/storms Friday morning
over central/east-central KS, but thinking mostly sunny and warmer
temperatures will return by Friday afternoon, along with breezy
south winds.

Another cold front is expected to approach the region from the
northwest Saturday afternoon/evening, with warming temperatures
and breezy/windy southerly winds ahead of it. Should see at least
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Saturday late afternoon
and evening over mainly central/north-central KS in the vicinity
of the front, as the far southern extent of Northern Plains
shortwave energy grazes the Central Plains. If storms generate a
large enough cold pool, activity would tend to propagate southeast
into southern KS during the evening and overnight, but unsure on
storm coverage at this time. Regardless, weak flow aloft/deep
layer shear should prevent widespread severe storms.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

GFS ensemble members along with the ECMWF, operational GFS and
GEM continue to support a breakdown of the southern/southeast
CONUS mid/upper ridge next week, as longwave troughing develops
over eastern North America. This will allow the stronger belt of
mid/upper westerlies and associated quasi-stationary frontal zone
to become established further south/southwest over the Kansas and
Mid-America region, supporting the potential for periodic
thunderstorm chances through the week. GFS is especially bullish
with this scenario, supporting 2-3 thunderstorm complexes across
the region from Monday night through Wednesday night. This pattern
would support the potential for a few rounds of damaging winds
and heavy rain, which could lead to flooding concerns if multiple
rounds of storm complexes occur. Furthermore, the increasing
influence of Canadian high pressure from the north along with
potential for extensive clouds should support cooler temperatures
by mid-late week.



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period,
however MVFR/IFR conditions are likely in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Timing of storms is a bit suspect, hence lack of
tempo groups. Anticipated evolution is for MCV in Southwest KS to
continue to move ne along front throughout the day with upscale
increase in coverage/intensity. This puts potential storms into
most sites in the afternoon and then lingering into early evening
at KCNU. As MCV exits, should see eventual return to southeast
low level flow. Several models suggest more storms will develop
along the front range which could move into western sites late
tonight. Probability/confidence in timing is too low to include
additional vcts groups. -howerton


Wichita-KICT    94  74  96  74 /  50  50  20  10
Hutchinson      91  72  96  74 /  60  50  20  10
Newton          91  72  94  74 /  60  50  30  10
ElDorado        93  72  94  74 /  50  50  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   96  74  96  74 /  40  40  20  10
Russell         90  71  96  74 /  40  50  20  20
Great Bend      90  71  96  74 /  70  50  20  20
Salina          91  72  96  75 /  40  50  30  10
McPherson       91  72  96  74 /  60  50  30  10
Coffeyville     96  74  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
Chanute         94  73  92  73 /  40  50  30  10
Iola            93  72  92  73 /  40  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    95  74  92  73 /  40  40  30  10


.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ098>100.



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