Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 182256
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
556 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW AND A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY THETA-E
GRADIENT HAS LED TO A PERSISTENT BUT DIMINISHING BAND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS.  THINK THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NE OK...WHICH WILL
GREATLY REDUCE THE LIFT. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THIS CONVECTION DIMINISHES...THINK MOST OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL REMAIN DRY...AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEGINS TO SHIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THINK MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI WILL REMAIN DRY AS WARM
SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ABOVE
NORMAL TEMP DAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE S-SW.  DO NOT BELIEVE
TEMPS WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER 90S LIKE WED...AS MID-UPPER CLOUD
COVER WILL BE A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE...BUT THINK THE WARMER NAM/WRF
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S. SO WILL ADJUST MAX
TEMPS UP SOME.

CONCERN FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WILL THEN SHIFT TO REMNANTS OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE...CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER SRN NM.
EXTRAPOLATION AND CURRENT ECMWF/GFS MODELS ARE TAKING THIS SYSTEM
STRAIGHT EAST...OR TRENDING IT FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND THE RED RIVER OF OK. THIS IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
SUGGESTED.  THE NAM/WRF THOUGH STILL SUGGESTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TRACK ACROSS NRN OK...BUT STILL FURTHER SOUTH.

MODELS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW A NICE MOISTURE FETCH JUST TO THE EAST
AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...EVEN WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN SHIFT...BUT
MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER. SO HAVE ADJUSTED QPF AND POP VALUES DOWN.

STILL THINK THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FURTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS...AS A SHORTWAVE IN
THE GREAT LAKES HELPS PUSH A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH FOR LATE SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT. CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT JUST NOT THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED.  SO WILL KEEP POPS SOLIDLY
IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...EVEN INTO SAT NIGHT...AS MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM RIDES OF THE TOP OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH INTO OK.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS SRN KS FOR EARLY ON SUN. BUT
GENERAL TREND FOR THE REST OF SUN THROUGH TUE WILL BE COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER...AS NORTHERN PLAINS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA....WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FOR TUE THROUGH
THU...AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY EAST INTO THE PLAINS. WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURNS TO KS FOR LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN: LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS EVENING...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND LOWERING
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT...COULD LEAD
TO AREAS OF IFR STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR IFR WOULD BE FOR
SLN AND CNU TERMINALS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT RSL...HUT...AND
ICT. ANY LINGERING STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH FLOW BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND MIXY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  69  83 /  10  10  10  60
HUTCHINSON      69  90  68  83 /  10  10  20  50
NEWTON          68  90  68  83 /  10  10  10  50
ELDORADO        68  91  68  83 /  10  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  90  69  84 /  10  10  10  60
RUSSELL         67  88  67  83 /  10  10  30  40
GREAT BEND      67  89  67  83 /  10  10  30  40
SALINA          68  87  69  84 /  10  10  20  40
MCPHERSON       68  89  68  83 /  10  10  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     68  89  68  85 /  10  10   0  40
CHANUTE         67  87  68  85 /  10  10   0  30
IOLA            66  87  68  84 /  10  10   0  30
PARSONS-KPPF    68  88  68  85 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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