Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 051125
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
525 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK: LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...WINDY
SUNDAY-MONDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY-TUESDAY...WARMING
TREND MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE...MODEST TO STRONG LIFT SHOULD
SUPPORT POCKETS OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN AND FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE/DUSTING AMOUNTS
AT BEST.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH COOLER 30S LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE SNOW COVER IS LINGERING. MUCH OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY TEMPERATURE-WISE...ALTHOUGH READINGS MAY BE 1-2 DEGREES
WARMER.

PER MODEL CONSENSUS...A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST OVER MID-AMERICA SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...DRIVING A
STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY LATE MORNING...WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE GLANCING SHOT OF
UPPER LIFT AND LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...COULD SEE SCATTERED
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
KANSAS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY...AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. LIKE SUNDAY...COULD SEE SCATTERED SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN KANSAS. AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
DEAMPLIFIES AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN
CONUS...ANTICIPATING A WARMING TREND BY MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
WIDESPREAD 50S LIKELY BY THURSDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING.  EXPECT TO SEE A WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST...SOUTH FOR
THE DAYTIME HOURS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.  THIS IS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME
POST FRONTAL LOWERING OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED.  ALSO THE MID LEVEL SATURATION ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SPRINKLE OR FLURRY CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KS THIS EVENING.  WILL NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE KICT AND
KCNU TAFS AS LOW LAYERS REMAIN DRY WITH PRECIP EVENT MAINLY BEING A
TRACE ONE.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S-40S
PERCENT SHOULD SUPPORT VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.
CONSEQUENTLY...OUTDOOR BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  25  52  31 /  10  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  24  51  30 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          47  24  51  31 /  10  10   0   0
ELDORADO        49  25  50  31 /  10  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  26  51  32 /  10  20   0   0
RUSSELL         37  18  41  27 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      40  21  45  28 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          45  23  49  30 /  10  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       46  24  51  30 /  10  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     53  30  50  33 /  10  20   0   0
CHANUTE         49  27  49  32 /  10  20   0   0
IOLA            48  27  49  32 /  10  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    51  29  50  32 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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