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000
FXUS63 KICT 230436
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1136 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

Tonight through Friday:

An upper low over the western states will push slowly east into the
Rockies. This will allow a frontal boundary stretching from
southeastern Nebraska to far northwestern Kansas, to lift northward
as a warm front overnight into Friday. Southerly flow will persist
across the forecast area into Friday with unseasonably warm
temperatures, along with breezy conditions again Friday.

Friday night through Sunday:

The large upper trough/closed low over the Rockies will advance
eastward across the Plains this weekend, with a southern piece of
this trough possibly cutting off from the northern branch and
shifting southwestward into northern Mexico late Sunday/Sunday
night. An attendant cold front will move through the region Saturday
night into Sunday, with upper jet support and anomalously high
precipitable water (1.75-1.90 inches). This will support the
development of widespread showers/thunderstorms, with the potential
for heavy rainfall occurring, especially Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Much cooler, drier air will spread in behind the
cold front Saturday night through Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

The medium range models shift the main upper trough eastward to the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by midweek, with the latest ECMWF and GFS
shifting the southern cutoff low further west-southwest into
northern Mexico. The cold front will shift well south of Kansas
early in the extended period, with cooler than normal temperatures.
Looking at lows in the mid 40s/lower 50s and highs in the upper
60s/lower 70s Monday-Tuesday.

Mid-upper height rises are progged over the Central Plains toward
midweek, which would support temperatures warming to seasonal
averages (Highs mid-upper 70s).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Sep 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the overnight hours and
Friday.  Southerly winds will continue to diminish while a low level
jet will set up over RSL, GBD and SLN tonight.  Wind shear is
expected for a few hours toward morning.  The wind shear conditions
are expected to end a few hours after sunrise as Southerly winds
again pick back up.  By noon, Southerly winds are expected to be
gusting up to 35 mph. These winds will diminish around sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    67  90  71  84 /   0   0  20  60
Hutchinson      67  91  69  84 /   0   0  20  60
Newton          66  89  70  84 /   0   0  20  60
ElDorado        66  89  70  85 /   0   0  10  60
Winfield-KWLD   68  90  72  87 /   0   0  10  60
Russell         67  91  68  83 /  10   0  40  50
Great Bend      66  92  67  84 /   0   0  40  50
Salina          68  92  70  85 /   0   0  20  60
McPherson       67  91  69  84 /   0   0  20  60
Coffeyville     65  91  69  89 /   0   0  10  30
Chanute         64  89  69  85 /   0   0  10  40
Iola            64  88  68  85 /   0   0  10  40
Parsons-KPPF    64  90  69  88 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ELM