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000
FXUS63 KICT 012044
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH DRY AND COLD WEATHER. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SNOWPACKED AREAS IN THE
SOUTH...COULD LEAD TO RENEWED AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE
REMNANT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IN OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN (ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS)...MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH RELATIVE HIGHER CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST KS.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. COULD SEE AN EVENING LOW IN THE MID
30S MONDAY EVE...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS PROGGED TO SURGE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT (MOST NOTICEABLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS)
AND STRONG/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR MIDWEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS IN. IN ADDITION...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS IN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NAM-WRF THAT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY WITHIN THE MOIST MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE CONVERGING WINDS ARE PROGGED. THIS COULD
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER
PATTERN EVOLUTION DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE OFF OF THE PACIFIC...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY LEE TROUGHING. THE RESULT SHOULD BE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH
A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON MOST OR ALL OF THE DAYS.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS EXITING TO THE EAST. THE
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 18Z AND MAY ONLY IMPACT KCNU THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO ALL TAF TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
LAST NIGHT AT TERMINALS THAT HAD SNOW...THE RAP/NAM AGAIN
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND HAVE HINTED AT THIS...BUT
NOT TAKEN IT DOWN AS LOW AS IT MAY GO. WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO
ASSESS AND ADJUST. LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH
THE COLD SNOW WILL BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR IT AT KICT AND KCNU
THOUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR MONDAY MORNING.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND SNOWCOVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    20  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      20  37  33  47 /  10  20  20  10
NEWTON          19  37  34  49 /  10  20  30  20
ELDORADO        20  37  34  50 /  10  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  38  35  51 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         18  37  34  42 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      19  37  34  43 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          20  37  33  45 /  10  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       19  38  33  47 /  10  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     21  39  36  53 /  10  20  40  50
CHANUTE         21  37  35  52 /  10  20  40  40
IOLA            20  37  35  52 /  10  20  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    21  39  35  53 /  10  20  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$