Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 140343
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
943 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Southeast Kansas will see occasional periods of light freezing
rain for the rest of the night into Saturday morning. Meanwhile
central/south central Kansas should see a lull in the
precipitation activity for the remainder of tonight. However the next
round of precipitation will be the real concern as activity
develops over Oklahoma Saturday morning and spreads northward into
Kansas by Saturday afternoon. The freezing rain will become
widespread for Saturday night into Sunday especially across
central/south central Kansas as the moisture transport/upper
level support increases ahead of the main system.

The freezing rain is expected to intensify as well with rapid ice
accumulations early on for this second round. Still expecting the
higher ice accumulations to affect locations that see colder sub
freezing temperatures for longer periods of time across central
Kansas. Southern Kansas will eventually see less efficient ice
accumulation as temperatures warm to and above the freezing
level, especially during moderate to heavy rainfall rate periods
which allow water to runoff and not freeze on elevated surfaces.

Jakub

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The challenge continues this afternoon. GFS/ECMWF/NAM/WRF are all
showing different solutions to this up coming ice storm. GFS is by
far the warmest, to the point where it is difficult to take is
seriously. ECMWF/NAM/WRF seem to be closer together. A strong low
pressure systems churns in the desert Southwest providing a
plethora of moisture transport from the South. This will create
warm mid level temperatures over the colder surface temperatures.
This will create a long term freezing rain event over much of the
CWA. Onset is expected to be slow. Southeast Kansas has already
started to see some freezing rain. The Northward progression is
not expected to reach the Central areas of Kansas until after
midnight tonight. By mid morning Saturday, nearly all areas of the
CWA should have freezing rain. This freezing rain is expected to
continue through much of Saturday and Saturday night. Most areas
should see about 1/8 to 1/4 of ice accretion through Saturday.
Saturday night, the moisture transport from the South picks up and
will allow for much warmer temperatures to advect into the area.
Unfortunately, this will only allow the precipitation to become
heavier overnight as Northeast winds will continue keeping the
surface temperatures down below freezing. This means the freezing
rain will likely become heavier. An additional 1/4 of ice
accretion will be likely over much of CWA. Expect about 1/4 to 1/2
of an inch of ice accretion for this ice storm.

While confidence is high on the freezing rain for Saturday and
Saturday night, confidence drops some for Sunday. The strong high
pressure to the Northeast will start to move further to East which
will significantly weaken its influence and the low level CAA will
come to an end. This means the WAA that has been occurring aloft
will slowly start to work its way down to the surface and the
precip will transition from freezing rain to rain will take
place. This will be slow to start but will pick up speed in the
afternoon as the main low pressure system starts encroach on the
area. The rain will remain in the area and could be heavy at times
in localized areas Sunday night and Monday. This rain will
diminish as the low pressure moves through Kansas during the
afternoon Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Forecast for the long term is much easier as high pressure will be
building into the region. Unlike the past major systems that have
come through the area, this one will not have a lot of CAA behind
and temperatures are likely to rise above normal for much of the
period with Southwesterly winds. The next system that appears to
arrive next Friday but it is too early to tell exactly how this
will develop. At this time is looks as temperatures will be plenty
warm enough to allow for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A small area of light freezing rain mixed with sleet at times will
move across southern and eastern Kansas this evening. Otherwise
MVFR cigs will remain across the region into Saturday before next
batch of more significant freezing rain moves into southern Kansas
Saturday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25  32  29  40 /  40  70  80  60
Hutchinson      23  31  26  36 /  20  60  80  80
Newton          24  31  26  37 /  30  60  80  70
ElDorado        24  32  28  40 /  40  70  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   27  34  29  44 /  40  70  80  50
Russell         19  29  24  32 /  10  40  70  70
Great Bend      22  29  25  33 /  10  50  80  80
Salina          22  31  25  35 /  10  30  70  70
McPherson       23  31  26  35 /  20  50  80  80
Coffeyville     28  33  31  48 /  60  80  80  50
Chanute         26  33  30  43 /  50  70  80  60
Iola            26  32  29  40 /  50  70  90  70
Parsons-KPPF    27  33  31  47 /  60  80  80  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Sunday for KSZ096-098>100.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for
KSZ051-052-067-068.

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ053-069>072-082-
083-091>095.

Ice Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ032-033-047-048.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ049-050.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CDJ
SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...CDJ



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