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000
FXUS63 KICT 081627
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS SHOWED A BAND OF SLEET JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE WICHITA AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE FLINT HILLS OF BUTLER
COUNTY INTO SUMNER AND COWLEY COUNTIES. THE RUC AND LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT MIXED WINTRY PRECIP OF SLEET
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS JUST SOUTH AND
EAST OF GREATER WICHITA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SO HAVE EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY
WANE BEFORE ADVISORY EXPIRATION AND IT MAY BE CANCELLED BY THE
TIME THE NEW ROUTINE FORECAST IS ISSUED AT MID-AFTERNOON. DEPSPITE
TEMPS AROUND FREEZING...THE INTENSITY OF SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME
SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY
AREAS.

KED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

A TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS ALREADY CAUSED PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SNOW AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND ON THE FLIP SIDE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT JUST
SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

AFTER A TRICKY FORECAST TODAY...A WARM UP WILL ENSUE THROUGH
MONDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS
RELATIVELY LOW. THE NAM AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL TOTALS...BUT THERE ARE
TWO BANDS OF SNOW...ONE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE SECOND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE. THE BAND OVER CENTRAL KANSAS IS THE
FIRST TO BE CALLED INTO QUESTION...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH OF
THIS DEVELOPING CURRENTLY...I.E. BEFORE 12Z/MARCH 8TH AND THAT
HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE RUSSELL TO SALINE COUNTY AREA.
THUS...STRONGLY QUESTION THAT SOLUTION. THE SECOND AREA IS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. STILL THINK THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION TOTALS
WILL NEAR ONE INCH BEFORE MELTING. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY
ALONE FOR HARPER AND KINGMAN COUNTIES...BUT THINK THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE TURNPIKE. TEMPS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S AND EVEN LOW 40S IN CENTRAL KANSAS...SO ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS SHOULD MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE 70S BY MONDAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

THE TIME PERIOD OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED IS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PLOWING
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. COMMON THEMES AMONG THE
GUIDANCE DESPITE SOME DESCREPANCES ARE 1. THE TIMING AND 2. THE
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE DESCREPANCES EXIST WITH
REGARD TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND NAM KEEP THE SYSTEM MAINLY DRY WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO KEEP IT FAIRLY WET. HAVE GONE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION IS LOW. REGARDLESS A POTENT COLD
FRONT WITH VERY STRONG AND COLD NORTH WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT TAKE TO MUCH OF A HIT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO
12 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER NM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...
SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KICT/KHUT AND EVENTUALLY KCNU.  ONLY EXPECTING THE SNOW TO LAST
ABOUT 3 TO 4 HOURS...AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND SYSTEM
TREKS RAPIDLY TO THE EAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.

AS THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EAST...EXPECT VFR CIGS TO RETURN TO
MOST LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  SKIES WILL
ACTUALLY BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE LOW TODAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AND
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  25  63  35 /  60  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  26  65  36 /  30   0   0   0
NEWTON          39  25  62  37 /  30  10   0   0
ELDORADO        37  24  63  37 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  24  62  34 /  90  10   0   0
RUSSELL         45  28  68  37 /  30   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      43  27  65  36 /  30   0   0   0
SALINA          42  26  66  38 /  30   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  25  64  37 /  30   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     38  24  64  34 /  90  30   0   0
CHANUTE         38  23  64  35 /  80  10   0   0
IOLA            38  23  63  35 /  80  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    38  24  65  36 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ069-
070-082-091>094-098.

&&

$$