Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 231947
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
247 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MULTIPLE
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE. ONE
EXTENDS FROM NM DOWN TO BAJA WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN CA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LEE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN FROM EASTERN CO INTO EASTERN NM WITH THE OPEN GULF
ALLOWING RICH MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT
SAT MAY 23 2015

THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT IS AFFECTING THE AREA
DEVELOPED DOWN IN EASTERN NM LAST EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE
HAD ISSUES HANDLING THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA OF RAINFALL.
AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THE MID AND UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN OVERALL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THE STRONGER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY LIFTS OUT OF NM ALONG WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. JUST LIKE HAS HAPPENED SO FAR TODAY...FEEL THE MAIN
GENERATION AREA FOR THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER
OK WITH THIS ACTIVITY STREAMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. AREAS ALONG
I-135...INCLUDING WICHITA...SHOULD GET THE BULK OF THEIR RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SE OF THE KS
TURNPIKE WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
SUN...ESPECIALLY AS THE MAIN UPPER VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST. ONE
OF THE CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY`S MODELS RUNS IS TO MOVE THINGS EAST
QUICKER SO THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE ENDING BY AROUND
00Z MON.

STILL LOOKING AT EXTREMELY HIGH PWS FOR EASTERN KS ALONG WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING IN PLACE WHICH WILL RESULT IN
RAINFALL RATES ABOVE 1 IN/HR AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 2 IN/HOUR.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN AND IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER. WHILE THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR EXTREME INSTABILITY EAST OF I-135...THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO FORCE
CONVECTION. THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS IS OVER EASTERN OK
WHERE THE VORT MAX WILL SLIDE OVER. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON/EVENING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY
ISO/SCT AND VERY SLOW MOVING. THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
IN LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO WOULD EXPECT SLOW MOVING HP TYPE
STORMS. IT`S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT IF CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
INCREASES FOR SE KS...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH MON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BY TUE THE LAST PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KS/MO AND WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO ALSO SHIFT EAST.
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DIG OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WED NIGHT INTO THU AND GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL
RAIN CHANCES FOR THU...BETTER CHANCES SHOULD ARRIVE FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND
SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ENVISION LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO INSERT TEMPO GROUPS FOR +TSRA AT ALL/MOST SITES. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...CIGS MAY ACTUALLY RISE TO HIGH IFR OR MVFR
WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE. IFR CIGS OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

ADK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  62  74  61 /  90  80  30  30
HUTCHINSON      65  62  74  61 /  90  70  30  30
NEWTON          66  62  73  61 /  90  80  40  30
ELDORADO        67  63  73  61 /  90  90  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  63  74  62 / 100  90  50  30
RUSSELL         64  60  75  59 /  90  40  20  30
GREAT BEND      64  61  75  59 /  90  40  20  30
SALINA          65  61  74  60 /  90  70  40  30
MCPHERSON       65  62  74  60 /  90  70  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  65  72  64 /  90 100 100  50
CHANUTE         70  63  72  62 /  90 100 100  50
IOLA            70  63  73  62 /  90 100 100  50
PARSONS-KPPF    71  64  72  63 /  90 100 100  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ052-053-068-
069-083-092-093.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

$$


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