Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281726
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TODAY:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE THIS MORNING AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
KS/GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE EDIFICATION.
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PRIMARY
MECHANISM FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING IS
RATHER WEAK FOR THE MODEST CAPPING...SO ANTICIPATING RATHER
SPARCE COVERAGE...PRIMARY IN THE VICINITY OF FLINT HILLS EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES RATHER TRICKY TODAY WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUDS...BUT SOME BREAKS/GOOD MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES IN MOST
LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT:
PRECIPITATION SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS
EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO BETTER MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST KS. WITH
UPPER WAVE SLOWING...ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS.

SAT-SUN:
FAIR AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY ON WHERE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FOR MOST
OF THIS PERIOD. SOME SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST
SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP CLOUDS AND EVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES ON SAT AND/OR SAT NIGHT. WHILE POSSIBLE...
GIVEN GOING DRY FORECAST AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER MODEL CHANGES...
OPTED TO KEPT IT DRY FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SAT BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED FOR SUN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SO NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO INITIALIZATION GRIDS. TRIVIAL MODEL QPF RESULTED SOME
LOW POPS IN INITIALIZATION GRIDS...BUT PROBABILITY/PREDICTABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE...SO THESE WERE NIXED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER AS A SFC TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACTUALLY
STALL BEFORE ARRIVING AT KICT SO CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND DIRECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE
AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. STORMS MAY IMPACT
THE KCNU TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    89  67  88  65 /  50  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      90  64  87  62 /  30  10   0   0
NEWTON          88  64  86  63 /  40  20   0   0
ELDORADO        87  64  86  64 /  60  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  67  88  66 /  60  20  10  10
RUSSELL         88  61  88  60 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      89  62  89  60 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          89  63  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       90  63  87  62 /  30  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  67  86  65 /  40  40  10  10
CHANUTE         85  66  85  63 /  40  40  10  10
IOLA            84  65  84  63 /  40  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  86  64 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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