


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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323 FXUS63 KICT 121122 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 622 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures are expected for much of the area today with highs in the mid and upper 80s. - Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will linger through the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A shortwave trough over the Central High Plains during the overnight hours is progged to rotate slowly eastward into the Southern and portions of the Central Plains as we move through the day today. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early in southwest Kansas extending SSE into northwest OK with some uncertainty as we move into central KS. The cams continue to show a rapid demise of the High Plains MCS as it rolls eastward during the predawn hours with little large-scale support for redevelopment evident. As we move into the early afternoon hours, the cap is progged to weaken with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms impacting southern Kansas through the afternoon and evening hours as the mid/upper trough rotates over the area. Better support for strong or severe storms is expected to remain south of the area although a rogue strong storm or two may produce some marginally strong wind gusts or small hail in addition to pockets of heavy rain. Limited afternoon insolation and a post- frontal regime will keep highs below normal over the region today with values topping out in the mid and upper 80s for many areas. Some showers and isolated storms may linger over portions of south central and much of southeast KS tonight but strong or severe storms are not anticipated. A weakness in the subtropical ridge will remain over the Southern and portions of the Central Plains as we move into Sun-Tue with a buoyant and weakly capped airmass leading to afternoon showers and storms through the period with the better chances lingering across southeast KS during the afternoon hours. Below normal highs will persist through Tue while gradually climbing back into the lower 90s as head towards the middle of the week. A shortwave trough moving eastward over the Northern Plains by midweek is expected to bring breezy conditions to the area Tue-Wed as the sfc low deepens across the High Plains keeping some diurnal pops in the forecast. Thu-Fri...A frontal boundary sagging into the Central Plains on Thu could be a focus for showers and storms in central KS but confidence in where the boundary will set up remains fairly low at this time. We may finally start to see a break in the action late in the week but forecast confidence remains fairly low. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 618 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A complex of storms moving east out of western Kansas will impact parts of central and south central Kansas this morning before dissipating. Some gusty winds to around 35 mph and brief heavy rain may accompany a brief period of MVFR cigs and visibility as the storms impact the area. We expect a break after 15-16Z but this may be short-lived with Storms redevelopingover southern KS this afternoon impacting KICT and possibly KHUT and KCNU. Some of the storm activity could linger in southeast Kansas tonight. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MWM AVIATION...MWM