Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231706

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1106 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Issued at 1106 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast updated for slight risk for severe storms late this
afternoon and early evening across central Kansas. Despite rather
modest moisture/instability, forcing for ascent looks more than
sufficient to initiate and sustain updrafts in the strongly
sheared environment in the 22z-02z time frame across central
Kansas. The main challenge is how far north the effective warm
front will move as the surface low tracks east across the area.
Latest short term guidance suggests this should be near or
just north of the highway 50 corridor. Have tweaked convective
chances a bit further south across central Kansas and added a risk
for marginally severe storms to the hazardous weather outlook.



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Last nights frontal boundary pushed a little further south than
previously thought, currently stalled just north of highway 50.
Warm advection ahead of the approaching shortwave in the wrn
rockies, will lead to this frontal boundary making slow progress
back to the north for the morning hours. Mid level moisture
overrunning this boundary may lead to some sprinkles or virga
across portions of Central KS as low layers remain fairly dry for
the morning hours.

The Rockies shortwave will make rapid progress into the plains
states by this afternoon. Some question on how far north the
frontal boundary will actually make it this afternoon, with a
fairly sharp temp gradient expected across Central KS. Areas south
of the front are expected to climb into the middle to upper 70s,
while areas along or north of the front may stay in the low 60s.
Still another above normal temp day however you look at it. As the
shortwave moves across, a low pressure area is expected to move
along I-70, with the better lift and moisture associated with the
system located along or north of the front across srn Neb and nrn
KS. Will go with a showers and embedded thunder chance for late
this afternoon for areas along I-70, where the better
lift/moisture is expected to be located. Areas south of the low
track across srn KS will stay dry, as the warm advection will lead
to a pronounced elevated mixed layer, keeping any shower chances
this far south "capped" off.

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, strong cold advection on the
backside of this system, is expected to help push a strong cold
front south across most of the forecast area. This will lead to a
rather brisk/raw type day on Fri with some some fairly gusty

This colder air will also lead to more seasonal type temp values
in the middle 40s for highs and middle 20s for lows for both Fri
and Sat.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Lots of uncertainty on how the end of the weekend will play out,
as the surface ridge moves rapidly to the east of the area late
Sat, with warm advection and increased moisture transport across
the srn plains. The uncertainty lies in how far north this
moisture transport will get on Sun, as another cold front drops
south across the forecast area. Latest GFS shows a fairly strong
shortwave will move across the plains, for Sun afternoon/evening,
with moisture transport overrunning the front for a fairly decent
chance of showers and possibly even some thunderstorms for Sun
evening across srn KS. The ECMWF on the other hand is further
south and shunts alot of the moisture further east and south.
Consensus suggests keeping a chance pop in, for most of srn KS for
Sun afternoon/evening, but feel these pops may be overdone given
the drier ECMWF solution.

Progressive zonal flow will lead to a warming trend for the start
of next week. Downslope flow conditions will lead to temps again
climbing above normal for Mon and Tue.

Another shortwave is progged to move into the Rockies toward the
end of the forecast period. This system may bring increasing
chances for precipitation and another surge of cooler air as we
head towards the middle of the week.



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A few showers/sprinkles will spread northeast across portions of
central Kansas early this morning, falling from a mid-level cloud
deck, with only light amounts expected. Also, cannot rule out
transient MVFR or lower conditions for a few hours over far
southeast Kansas early this morning, as low-level moisture
advection from the southeast meets up with a radiated-out
airmass. Otherwise, a strong storm system will approach from the
west today, tightening the pressure gradient and strengthening
winds. Additionally, there is a narrow window for a few
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening across central and
northern Kansas. Not much instability, but quite a bit of forcing
for ascent, so inserted VCTS at Great Bend, Salina and Russell.
Dry conditions expected across southern half of Kansas.
Thereafter, a strong cold front will blast south across Mid-
America, with strong and gusty northwest winds and MVFR ceilings
in its wake.


Issued at 259 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A cold frontal boundary will drop south across the
area on Fri, which will lead to drier air and NW winds across the
region. This will lead to a very high grassland danger for most
locations on Friday.



Wichita-KICT    77  37  45  24 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      73  34  42  23 /  20  10  10   0
Newton          73  35  42  23 /  10  10  10   0
ElDorado        76  36  44  24 /  10   0  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   80  38  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         60  30  36  19 /  40  50  20   0
Great Bend      64  31  39  19 /  40  20  10   0
Salina          64  34  39  22 /  40  40  20  10
McPherson       68  34  41  22 /  20  20  10   0
Coffeyville     80  42  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         79  41  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            78  40  48  26 /  10   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    79  42  51  26 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.