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000
FXUS63 KICT 220730
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A shortwave trough over the Rockies will dampen and move across the
area today while another more intense shortwave trough will impact
the area later tonight. This will bring multiple opportunities for
showers and isolated storms today-tonight across much of the area.
With limited insolation, afternoon highs should remain below normal
once again ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s for most areas.
We may see a strong storm or two this evening along a southward
moving cold front, however the deeper moisture is expected remain
across the Southern Plains resulting in limited instability
precluding more organized strong or severe storms through tonight.

Tue-Wed...A mid/upper trough is progged to meander slowly south and
east across the Middle & Upper Mississippi Valley areas on Tuesday
while the cold mid lvl air pivots south into the Central Plains
states. Maintained mainly afternoon pops within a post-frontal
shallow instability scenario. Below normal temperatures will linger
into the day on Wed while drier more subsident air overspreads the
forecast area in the wake of the trough. Afternoon highs are
expected to rise into the mid and upper 60s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A shortwave ridge will translate eastward across the area on
Thursday. The ECMWF is more progressive when compared to the GFS,
breaking the ridge down on Friday as a shortwave trough races
eastward across the Central and Northern Plains. This would
support some pops Thu night into early Fri, however better
chances for deep moist convection should arrive early in the
weekend as a mid/upper trough moves across the central Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. The main concern
will be for overnight or early Mon morning, as increasing mid level
moisture and lift, may lead to some widely scattered showers or some
embedded TSRA. Will go with a VCSH for this chance, and go with a
VCTS for locations across Central KS where the best mid level
instability will be located for some rogue TSRA.

There is the potential for additional showers/storms to roll over
the high plains for late Mon afternoon or Mon evening, but will
address this with later TAF issuances.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  52  69  46 /  40  40  30  10
Hutchinson      67  51  68  45 /  40  50  30  10
Newton          68  51  66  45 /  40  50  30  10
ElDorado        72  52  67  45 /  30  40  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  53  69  46 /  30  30  20  10
Russell         69  48  66  42 /  40  50  20  10
Great Bend      68  48  66  43 /  40  40  20   0
Salina          67  51  67  45 /  40  40  30  10
McPherson       66  50  67  44 /  40  50  30  10
Coffeyville     75  54  68  47 /  20  30  30  10
Chanute         74  53  68  46 /  30  30  30  10
Iola            73  53  68  46 /  30  30  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  54  68  47 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...Ketcham