Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 282113
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:
*COOL DOWN BY THURSDAY (TOMORROW).
*RAIN/SNOW MIX FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY.
*NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU AT LEAST EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

AS OF MID-AFTERNOON...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. STOUT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHEAST KS TO WARM AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 70S. READINGS ARE A TAD
COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH DESPITE BETTER DOWNSLOPE FLOW...DUE TO
SOMEWHAT COOLER 850MB TEMPERATURES AND DENSE CIRRUS.

A REALITY CHECK WILL BEGIN TO SET IN TONIGHT--THURSDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH USHERS COOLER AIR SOUTH ON
STRONG NORTH WINDS...ALTHOUGH THURSDAY READINGS SHOULD STILL BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 40S--LOWER 50S. AFTER LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE 20S AREAWIDE...READINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 40S
FRIDAY AS DENSE MID-UPPER CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE STORM SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMES THROUGH
POSITIVELY TILTED...AND BRUNT OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY REMAINS
SOUTH. HOWEVER...PERSIST MODEST 800-600MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS
AROUND ONE- QUARTER INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ONE-HALF
INCH OR SO. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION-TYPE GOES...CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST MOSTLY A COLD RAIN...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN JUST
TOO WARM FOR SNOW IN THE UPPER 30S--LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...COULD SEE
A CHANGE-OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR A TIME SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS SOUTH...IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT AT THIS TIME
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIGHT (GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH).

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA...AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THE COLDEST DAYS SHOULD BE SUNDAY--
MONDAY...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS MID-
AMERICA. SUNDAY WILL BE PARTICULARLY RAW...DUE TO STOUT NORTH
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S-30S. COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF WARM-
UPS INTO THE 40S-50S TUESDAY-- WEDNESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SLUG OF
COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR LATE WEEK.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST
18 HOURS AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NW
AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  COULD SEE SOME SW
WIND GUSTS TO 25KTS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.  ALSO COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY ON THU...AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO
FILTER INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS COOLER AIR MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
STRATO-CU MOVING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE KS FOR THU
MORNING. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 3500 FT AGL...BUT COULD SEE
THE CIGS AS LOW AS 3000 FT AGL FOR KSLN AND KCNU.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    39  49  24  47 /   0   0   0  10
HUTCHINSON      38  48  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
NEWTON          39  47  23  46 /   0   0   0  10
ELDORADO        40  48  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         35  47  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      37  47  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          35  48  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       38  48  23  47 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     41  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         40  49  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            40  48  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  50  23  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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