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000
FXUS63 KICT 041140
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM WELL INTO THE 30S
TODAY...WITH POTENTIALLY 40S FOR AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NOW SNOW ON
GROUND. LIGHT/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...MOST PROBABLE
NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE BEFORE ABOUT 3-4 AM. THINKING THE NAM
IS MOST DEFINITELY OVERDOING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THOUGH. THE
FOG COULD BE PATCHY DENSE BEFORE THICK MID- LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN
FROM THE WEST. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS DECENT...AND MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE
ON A COMMON SOLUTION...SO ANTICIPATING PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY THINKING VERTICAL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW...ALTHOUGH COULD MIX WITH RAIN AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. ALL-IN-
ALL...THINKING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE-HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...WITH
ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTING POTENTIALLY UP TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL THERMAL FIELDS THOUGH...WILL
HEDGE TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR NOW. ANTICIPATING RAPIDLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S-50S THURSDAY...AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO OOZE SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD TEMPER FRIDAY`S TEMPERATURES SOME ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN KS COULD STILL
REACH THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS HAS LATCHED ONTO
A COMMON SOLUTION REGARDING A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING MID-AMERICA
FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT-- SATURDAY...KEEPING MOST OF THE
ENERGY SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY...WHILE WE ARE STILL
THINKING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT--
SATURDAY...THE THREAT FOR A BIG WINTER STORM IS DECREASING OVER
THE KS REGION. AS UPPER FLOW FLATTENS...ANTICIPATING WARMING
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH KRSL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...SLN A
COUPLE HOURS LATER...AND KHUT NEAR END OF FORECAST. MODELS
STRUGGLING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MODEL SNOW COVER...SO ITS
UNCLEAR WHETHER RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRATUS/FOG
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...OR IF THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT POST FRONTAL CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF FOG...AND ONLY INCLUDE SCT015 AT KRSL/KSLN. 850MB
MOISTURE LIKELY HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE BROKEN LOW VFR DECK
BEHIND FRONT. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

RELATIVELY LOW FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...DUE TO COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LACK OF STRONG
WINDS AND PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  24  37  19 /   0   0  50  10
HUTCHINSON      38  25  36  19 /   0  10  50   0
NEWTON          37  24  37  19 /   0  10  50   0
ELDORADO        37  23  38  18 /   0   0  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  23  37  19 /   0   0  50  10
RUSSELL         45  25  36  21 /   0  30  50   0
GREAT BEND      41  26  35  21 /   0  20  50   0
SALINA          41  25  36  18 /   0  20  50   0
MCPHERSON       37  25  36  17 /   0  10  50   0
COFFEYVILLE     36  20  38  21 /   0   0  50  40
CHANUTE         37  21  39  20 /   0   0  50  30
IOLA            38  23  39  22 /   0   0  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    36  21  38  20 /   0   0  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$