Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 260428
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS REMAINED MOSTLY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT IN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WHERE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
CAPE/SHEAR WERE JUXTAPOSED FOR SEVERE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE
SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA. PERCEPTIBLE WATER OF 1.20 TO 1.40 INCHES OR 180+ PERCENT
OF NORMAL WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL WINDS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.

CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THU-
FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60. MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS DIVING SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BRING A FEW
SPRINKLES OR NIGHTTIME FLURRIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT CONFIDENCE
IN RECEIVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS
LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING BUT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
RESULT IN LESS THAN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK
REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED LOW POPS MON-TUE AS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. ANOTHER CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM MAY DIG OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
A TRAILING BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THIS WILL DRIVE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES INTO
VERY HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT. FIRE DANGER
SHOULD LESSEN CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR
AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    34  59  34  58 /  60  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      32  59  33  59 /  50  10  20   0
NEWTON          34  56  32  56 /  60  10  20  10
ELDORADO        35  57  33  56 /  60  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   36  59  35  58 /  60  10  20   0
RUSSELL         28  59  31  61 /  30  10  20   0
GREAT BEND      28  60  31  61 /  40  10  20   0
SALINA          30  57  33  58 /  50  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       31  57  33  58 /  50  10  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     42  58  35  55 /  70  10  20  10
CHANUTE         38  56  33  53 /  70  10  20  10
IOLA            37  55  33  52 /  70  10  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    39  58  33  54 /  70  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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