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000
FXUS63 KICT 181718
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Today-tonight:

Weak front will make temporary foray into Central KS today and
retreat north tonight. Lack of moisture should preclude
precipitation. GFS is rather aggressive with increasing cirrus
during the daylight hours, especially for areas southwest of ICT
proper. This might some impact on maxes. Recent trends suggest it
has been overly generous with high level moisture, but latest
satellite shows decent increase in cirrus upstream. At this point
best guidance is in line with previous forecast and opted not
make adjustments for the cirrus.

Thursday-Friday:

Temperatures and low level moisture both will be on the increase
throughout this period. Latest ECMWF/GFS/NAM all show weak ripple
in southwest flow moving through on Friday during the day. This
leads to some QPF from scattered/weak elevated precipitation.
This may be a bit premature given slow moisture return, but some
altocumulus castellanus/sprinkles are possible. Timing and
location of this have been quite erratic. Bulk of meaningful
precipitation will be suppressed through most of Friday night,
with best/consistent chances occurring somewhere near OK border
coincident with the influx of richer moisture. Winds should be
quite strong on Friday and into Saturday with potential advisory
needed on Friday. Brisk winds and clouds will also result in lows
Friday night closer to the normal highs. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Timing of the frontal passage on Saturday remains fairly
consistent with GFS and ECMWF only a few hours faster at 1800 UTC
Saturday and both similar at 0000 UTC/Sunday with front moving
through Southeast KS. Timing would suggest strong-severe storms
possible starting somewhere in the vicinity of a Marion-Kingman
line early afternoon and waning around 0000 UTC with loss of
instability in Southeast KS. Setup favors convection forming line
fairly quickly and 700MB flow would favor more scattered-isolated
60-70 mph winds. Progressive front should limit heavy rain threat.
Rapid clearing by Sunday and think temperatures may be a bit cool
on both Sunday/Monday by a degree or few given dry airmass and
low level downslope flow. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Shortwave energy extends from Manitoba down into the Middle
Mississippi Valley. Only some high clouds are associated with this
feature. At the surface, a cold front extends from northern MN
into northern Nebraska with a pre-frontal trough stretching from
southern Nebraska into western KS. This feature may flip winds
around to the northwest and briefly to the northeast late this
afternoon into the evening hours across central KS, but will
remain on the light side. Confidence is high that VFR conditions
will remain in place through this TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    77  51  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      77  49  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          76  50  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        76  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   77  51  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         80  47  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      80  48  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          77  47  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       77  49  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     75  50  79  55 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         74  49  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            74  49  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    75  50  79  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...RBL