Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271652
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT ONE MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS DEVELOPING
CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WHICH IS DUE TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...A MCV
WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATT,KS AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
STRONG SURFACE DESTABILIZATION AND MCV MOVING INTO THE AREA COULD
SPARK OFF SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE EXPECTING MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JAKUB

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SUMMARY: ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
ENTER THE FORECAST BY THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING THROUGH AT LEAST MID
NEXT WEEK.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM EARLY THIS MORNING OVER EXTREME SE
KS WITHIN ZONE OF 900-800 MOISTURE TRANSPORT...BUT SUSPECT BRUNT
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BORDER.
OTHERWISE...QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN OK
IS EXPECTED TO MIX SLOWLY NORTH TODAY...BECOMING FAIRLY DIFFUSE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AMIDST AN INCREASING MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN KS. DESPITE MODEST (AT BEST)
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS SCATTERED CONVECTION INITIATING
DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER WEST/SOUTHWEST KS ALONG A
DIFFUSE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...SEVERE CHANCES
COULD DRIBBLE INTO AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-135.
ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY ALL
ACTIVITY THAT CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY-TONIGHT.

WHILE SPECIFICS REGARDING EXACT LOCATION/TIMING/COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...OVERALL
PATTERN OF MID/UPPER WAVES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
AMIDST A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS FAVORS CONTINUED OFF-AND-ON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT IS MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DUE TO WEAK/MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COULD FAVOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

FINAL AND POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...AMIDST
INCREASING UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS TIGHTENED UP A BIT REGARDING THIS PERIOD...SO FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SHUT DOWN BY EARLY
SATURDAY.

KLEINSASSER

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
NEEDED DRYING TREND REGIONWIDE BY SATURDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MID-AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S BY NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FAIRLY HUMID CONDITIONS.
UPPER PATTERN DISPLAYED BY GFS/ECMWF NEXT WEEK CERTAINLY DOES LOOK
MORE SUMMER-LIKE.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN THE MAIN ISSUE. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHERN OK...BUT EXPECT CONVERGENCE TO DRIFT NORTH
IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA MIDDAY. ADDED
VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS TO KICT/KHUT AS RAP/NAM SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND MIDDAY. CONVECTION
SHOULD WANE FOR A BIT LATE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED HIGH PLAINS
CONVECTION TO ROLL ACROSS ALL SITES LATER TONIGHT. -HOWERTON


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 MORE ROUNDS OF STORMS...CONTEMPLATED
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON STORM COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE.
HOWEVER...IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR PREDICTABILITY
INCREASES...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTEMPLATE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. STAY TUNED. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED...WITH CONTINUED LOCALIZED RISES POSSIBLE ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THROUGH MAY 26TH...WICHITA MAY RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED 11.18
INCHES...3RD ALL-TIME (SINCE 1889). 2ND IS 11.22 INCHES IN
1935...AND 1ST IS 13.14 INCHES IN 2008. WITH PERIODIC EPISODES OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...THESE RECORDS
WILL BE IN JEOPARDY. SALINA AND CHANUTE ALSO HAVE A STRONG
POTENTIAL OF BREAKING INTO THE TOP-10 WETTEST MAY`S ON RECORD.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  66  79  66 /  30  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  79  65 /  30  60  50  60
NEWTON          80  64  77  65 /  30  50  40  50
ELDORADO        81  65  79  66 /  30  40  40  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  66  78  67 /  30  40  40  50
RUSSELL         82  63  80  63 /  40  70  50  60
GREAT BEND      81  64  78  64 /  40  70  50  60
SALINA          82  65  80  66 /  30  60  50  50
MCPHERSON       82  64  78  65 /  30  60  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     82  66  79  68 /  30  30  40  40
CHANUTE         81  65  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
IOLA            81  64  79  67 /  20  30  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    81  65  79  68 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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