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000
FXUS63 KICT 211748
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1248 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

The main forecast concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall
rates and possible flooding tonight.

An upper level trough will track from south-central Canada across
the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley today into
tonight. Water vapor imagery also depicts a shortwave over eastern
New Mexico/west Texas, which has a batch of convection with it
early this morning. This weaker wave is embedded within a
subtropical moisture plume emanating from Mexico northeastward
into the Southern Plains. This wave will eject slowly
northeastward into western Kansas today, ahead of the main upper
level trough to the north. We will maintain a smaller chance of
showers/storms this morning for mainly west of I-135. An increased
chance of storms is expected this afternoon across
northern/central/southwest Kansas, as the wave continues to move
northeast with peaking diurnal instability. The moist plume will
continue overspread Kansas today, resulting in considerable mid-
high level cloudiness, with the least cloud cover indicated in
southeast Kansas.

The subtropical shortwave over Kansas will get absorbed by the main
upper trough tonight, as the stronger system slides southeast
through the upper Midwest. A moderately-strong southerly low-level
jet will develop tonight, ahead of a southward moving cold front
which is progged to move into central Kansas after midnight. In
addition, upper-level divergent flow is indicated over eastern
Kansas. This should allow thunderstorms to increase in coverage in
central/northeast Kansas this evening, with potentially a large
complex of storms then sliding southward through eastern Kansas
late tonight. with precipitable water near 2 inches (above the 90%
climatological moving average), and some potential for back-
building and training storms, locally very heavy rainfall rates
can be expected, with flooding a possibility particularly in
eastern Kansas where the strongest, most persistent moisture
transport is signaled. Some of the east-central Kansas counties
may need to be included in a flash flood watch for tonight.
Otherwise, there is a marginal threat of isolated, strong-severe
downburst winds with storms this afternoon into tonight.

The cold front will push southward through southern Kansas Tuesday,
with a chance of lingering showers/thunderstorms, while clearing
occurs in the northern part of the state. A much cooler and drier
airmass will build southward into the area in the wake of the front
Tuesday into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Medium range models are in decent agreement indicating cooler than
normal temperatures continuing during this medium range period. Mid-
level shortwave energy is progged to move east out of the Rockies
across the Central Plains Friday into the weekend. Therefore, we are
expecting increased cloud cover and a chance of
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon around 22z
mainly along the KS Turnpike and areas east. Coverage should be
limited so avoided putting that in that in the TAFs.

More development is expected in the region around 05z, lasting
through about 12z. The area of storms Will track from northwest
to southeast along an advancing cold front.

Conditions in storms could be 1/2 +TSRA OVC012CB. Elsewhere, VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    94  73  86  63 /  30  50  50  10
Hutchinson      93  70  85  60 /  50  70  30   0
Newton          93  70  83  59 /  50  70  40  10
ElDorado        92  71  84  61 /  30  60  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   94  73  87  63 /  20  40  50  20
Russell         91  67  86  58 /  50  60  20   0
Great Bend      91  68  85  59 /  50  70  20   0
Salina          93  70  86  59 /  60  70  30   0
McPherson       93  69  85  59 /  50  70  30   0
Coffeyville     92  74  87  64 /  10  30  60  30
Chanute         91  73  85  62 /  20  60  70  20
Iola            91  72  84  61 /  20  70  70  20
Parsons-KPPF    92  74  86  63 /  10  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KRC