


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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311 FXUS63 KICT 250509 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1209 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty hit-or-miss showers/storms this afternoon-evening, mainly northwest of KS Turnpike. Primary risks are locally intense rainfall rates and flooding, and isolated strong downburst winds. - Off-and-on shower/storm chances Thursday through early next week. Primary risks are locally intense rainfall rates and flooding, and isolated strong downburst winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING Similar to yesterday, spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms will impact the region this afternoon and evening, mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike, although a few isolated storms cannot be ruled out as far east as the Flint Hills. The culprits are subtle mid/upper perturbations within a long fetch of deep subtropical moisture stretching from Mid-America south-southwest into the western Mexican coast, amidst a moist/unstable/uncapped airmass across the region. Little to no deep layer shear should preclude a large hail threat, although decent downdraft CAPE values could support a threat for isolated wet microbursts. Thinking the primary threat will be locally intense rainfall rates and flooding concerns given the tropical airmass. The shower/storm threat should gradually shift north of the forecast area as the evening progresses, as the rich precipitable water axis shifts north. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT The airmass will remain moist/unstable/uncapped by Wednesday afternoon, so cannot completely rule out a few spotty showers/storms. However, coverage should be quite isolated with the precipitable water axis north of the forecast area. For Wednesday night, locations mainly northwest of a Great Bend to Lincoln line could see a few showers/thunderstorms, as activity rolls east off the High Plains. Severe weather is not expected. THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK This period will feature off-and-on shower/storm chances, as the upper ridge breaks down some, allowing for subtle/weak mid- level perturbations to traverse slowly east over the region, amidst a moist/unstable airmass and increasing precipitable waters. Chances will likely be highest each day from about mid- afternoon through the evening when instability is highest. Sunday-Monday could feature the greatest chances/coverage, as model consensus progresses a weak cold front slowly south into the region. Throughout this time period, storm organization/mode will likely be quite messy/pulsey given weak flow aloft, so the hail threat will likely be negligible. However, strong downburst winds could accompany the strongest activity, along with locally intense rainfall rates and flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the end of the period. Strong southerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 kts are expected throughout the daytime and evening hours. Could see a chance for showers and storms in central KS after 00Z tonight, but confidence is too low for a mention at this time. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...JWK