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000
FXUS63 KICT 230438
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER...MUCH WEAKER...IMPULSE
SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SD. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IA...TO NEAR THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE HEAT ADVISORY.  COULD SEE
KSLN STAY NEAR HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT
WILL SEE TEMPS SLOWLY FALL OFF AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE HUMID
CONDITIONS REMAINING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG
I-70 IN NE KS NEAR KTOP.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DROP
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES AND WASH OUT ALONG A
LINE FROM KSLN TO KCNU BY WED MORNING. NOT A LOT OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR LOW LEVEL
JET OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY FOR A NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CHANCE.
SO THINK ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY SLIM
OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING ALONG A LINE FROM KSLN TO
KCNU...GENERALLY ALONG THE LINE WHERE THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LOCATED.  BUT WILL TWEAK POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT...AND COULD
SEE POPS COMPLETELY REMOVED WITH A LATER UPDATE.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DUE TO CAPPING AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT HAS BEE VERY LIMITED. STILL FEEL THERE WILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND IN AN AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
ON WED WITH RETURN FLOW COMMENCING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY WED
AFTERNOON. DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ALONG IT ON WED. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM THAT SOME MONSOONAL
ENERGY WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE HIGH AND WILL SLIDE OVER NEBRASKA
ON THU AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU EVENING. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT FOR FRI AS A POWERFUL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING INTO KS WITH
VERY HOT TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135 WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT THE CENTURY MARK ON FRI WITH SW WINDS AND DECENT MIXING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE ROBUST IN TRACKING THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF ISN`T AS DEEP WITH
THE TROUGH AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE UPPER ENERGY FURTHER NORTH
COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH AGREE ON A
UNSEASONABLY SHARP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MON MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE PLAINS TO START THE
WORK WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES IT WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHAT THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING. WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME SMALL
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ON SUN INTO SUN
NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD
PRECIP EVENT.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF NE KS AND
BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE ERN HALF OF KS BY WED MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NE AND
EAST BY WED MORNING.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE OVER SE KS...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ON WED. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PESKY GROUND FOG DURING THE 09-13Z
TIME FRAME OVER KICT/KHUT WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS.

CONSIDERABLE QUESTION AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEAK
BOUNDARY...AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO KEEP THE
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.  IF ANYTHING CAN DEVELOP THINK THE CHANCE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  95  70  94 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      73  94  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          73  93  69  93 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        73  93  69  92 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  95  71  94 /  10  20  10  10
RUSSELL         71  93  70  99 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      70  93  70  98 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          73  94  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       73  94  69  95 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  94  70  92 /  20  20  10   0
CHANUTE         74  90  68  90 /  30  20  10  10
IOLA            74  89  67  89 /  30  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    74  92  69  91 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$