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000
FXUS63 KICT 022119
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

AFTER A MORNING PLAGUED BY LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG...THE FOG
LIFTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE MORNING -
EARLY AFTERNOON. ALOFT THE PLAINS ARE UNDER SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND THE DISTURBANCE TO WATCH IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EVENTUAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE
HELPED TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND INTO THE MID 60S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE MILD DECEMBER TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN A FAIRLY NICE DAY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

THE TIDES ARE CHANGING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DISLODGES AN
EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS WHICH WILL PLUMMET SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION. THE LATEST MON/12Z GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE FRONT...AND
SOME CHANGES AS A RESULT OF THAT WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. LEE
TROUGHING WILL RETURN BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH THE
SLOWER ADVANCE...THINK THAT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL REACH INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL PRECEDE THE
COLDEST AIR AND STRONGEST WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECTING THE FRONT AND THE COLD AIR TO TAKE
OVER BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL BE PRESENT. THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND THE MAIN
FORCING WILL STAY BACK TO THE NORTHWEST...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...JUST SHALLOW COLD AIR. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S BEFORE THE COLDEST AIR SETTLES IN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS THE COLD. WE WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LOWER THAN OUR AVERAGE OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY
THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ROCKIES WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BECAUSE OF THE COLD AIR AND DESPITE THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLDEST AIR...THE WHOLE COLUMN IS EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW ZERO...SO SNOW SHOULD BE THE ONLY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS IS LOW...BUT SOME ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE AREA IS EXPECTED. CURRENTLY THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE IS...BUT WITH THIS STILL BEING A FEW DAYS
OUT...THINK LATER FORECASTS WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE THE
SPECIFICS.

OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWFALL FORECAST...THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING COULD DROP BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND IMPACT
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW TO THE FORECAST...AT THIS TIME IT IS TO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE ANY AMOUNTS...BUT AGAIN IT COULD LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

AREAS OF LINGERING IFR STRATUS/FOG VSBYS WILL BURN OFF/DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
HOWEVER LINGERING SURFACE-BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG/EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE MAY PROMOTE SOME REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MVFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG VSBYS AT KCNU
AND KICT...THOUGH SOME REFINEMENT IS LIKELY WITH LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE`S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD WITH THE IMPACT OF THE ARCTIC COLD
FRONT NOT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS.

KED


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  62  28  38 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      35  62  26  37 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          38  60  28  36 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        41  63  31  38 /   0   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  64  32  41 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         32  59  23  33 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      31  60  22  34 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          35  61  25  36 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       35  60  26  35 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     44  65  36  44 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         43  64  34  41 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            44  63  35  40 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  64  34  43 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$