Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 251131
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO STALL BISECTING THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...ML CAPES
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE, HOWEVER DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WITH A
DISTINCT WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND H8 AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LIKELY
PRECLUDING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A HIGH-IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER DAY STILL APPEARS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS
A MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. H5 FLOW OF 55-65 KNOTS IS PROGGED TO NOSE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE DAY WHILE A SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TOWARD THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA STATE LINE AND A DRYLINE SHARPENS
ACROSS CENTRAL KS. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE
WARM SECTOR ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE 66-68 RANGE RESULTING IN
LCLS OF 1000-2000 FT WHILE MLCAPES CLIMB TO 3000-4000+ J/KG. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE
AFTER 22Z ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS STRONG CONVERGENCE ALLOWS THE
CAP TO ERODE. THE INITIAL MODE STILL APPEARS TO FAVOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS GIVEN MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY &
ORIENTATION OF THE DEEPER LAYER (0-6KM/0-8KM) SHEAR VECTORS IN
RELATION TO THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP CAN HOLD THROUGH 00-
03Z A MORE RAPID TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE COULD OCCUR AS THE SHEAR
VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO BACK WITH TIME AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE AND DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED LEADING INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HIGH-END SEVERE
REPORTS INCLUDING VERY LARGE TO GIANT HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE EXITING EARLY WED MORNING.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH A POST-FRONTAL
STABLE REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION AS RICH GULF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WAS
SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WHILE THE LOWER CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY MVFR FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHERE
MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW IS EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE...A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OR
MITIGATE CHANCES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

RECENT GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    78  65  83  56 /  10  10  50  60
HUTCHINSON      80  60  82  54 /  10  10  50  50
NEWTON          79  62  81  55 /  10  20  50  60
ELDORADO        76  64  81  58 /  10  20  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   81  67  82  58 /  10  10  40  60
RUSSELL         78  56  80  51 /   0  20  40  40
GREAT BEND      78  56  81  50 /   0  10  40  40
SALINA          79  60  82  55 /  10  20  50  60
MCPHERSON       79  61  82  54 /  10  20  50  60
COFFEYVILLE     78  67  81  63 /  10  20  30  70
CHANUTE         74  66  80  62 /  10  20  30  70
IOLA            72  65  80  62 /  10  20  30  70
PARSONS-KPPF    76  67  81  62 /  10  20  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...MWM



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