Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 182118
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
A MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PREVENT
TONIGHT`S LOWS FROM DROPPING LOWER THAN THE 20S. IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER SNOW-FREE REGIONS OF CENTRAL KS...ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WARMER OVER SNOW-COVERED REGIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.

FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...AS LOW-LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AMIDST SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
AIR...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY...AS INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS. AS THINGS
CURRENTLY STAND...THINKING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM KINGMAN TO
WICHITA TO CHANUTE. BY LATE MORNING...ALL AREAS SHOULD WARM ABOVE
FREEZING...ENDING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT...ALTHOUGH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL LIFT MAY ALLOW FOR DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KS.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

A MORE IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON THE HEELS OF FRIDAY`S
SYSTEM...WITH MODEST TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE
TURNPIKE SATURDAY- SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF TRACKS THIS SYSTEM A TAD
FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY MAY EVEN
PROMOTE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S SAT-
SUN WILL PREVENT ANY WINTRY WEATHER. ANOTHER SYSTEM QUICKLY ON THE
HEELS OF THIS ONE WILL SPREAD A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DAYTIME READINGS BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
MON-TUE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY-
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE EAST.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WRF/GFS
BOTH HINTING AT FAIRLY MOIST SURFACE LAYER AFTER SUNSET...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO PATCHY GROUND FOG...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY
BE DOWNSLOPE. AT THIS POINT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION...BUT
WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF KICT/KHUT/KCNU GOES 5SM BR
FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE NIGHT. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    26  43  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      26  43  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          26  41  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        26  42  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   25  44  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  44  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  45  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          26  42  22  43 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       26  43  23  43 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     28  44  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         26  42  21  44 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            26  41  21  43 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    26  43  21  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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