Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 121735
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Today-tonight:
Transient shortwave will likely produce enough lift for a dusting
of snow across Central KS late this afternoon/early evening.
Temperature profiles suggest a relatively warm layer in the
vicinity of 850MB that will limit snowfall rates. Could see up to
a half inch north of I-70, most likely in the vicinity of Lincoln
County. Extensive clouds will also limit warm up today.
Precipitation should end shortly after 0000 UTC as shortwave
departs. Lingering clouds should keep temperatures from completely
bottoming out, but suspect a few locations where breaks in the
clouds develop, will radiate out quickly near sunrise.

Saturday-Sunday:
Surface ridge axis traverses area on Saturday, with return flow
developing late Saturday in the western sections. There could be
just enough warm air advection aloft in concert with jet streak to
trigger more flurries along northeastern border of forecast area
roughly around daybreak Sunday. Limited mixing and some clouds
will keep temperatures well below normals on Saturday.
Temperatures recover a bit on Sunday, especially in the west as
return flow develops once again. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

The next cold cold in the series will traverse the area Monday
morning. gusty north winds and more cold air will spill into the
area with temperatures likely falling throughout the day. Band of
flurries/light snow will accompany front as it moves through, but
at this point, thinking accumulations should be minimal given
the fast movement. There were some hints that temperatures aloft
could warm enough to induce sleet over the Flint Hills just prior
to daybreak, but this seems a bit of stretch, as layer will start
relatively dry. Temperatures slowly moderate starting Wednesday
as upper trough finally moves east and ridging builds into the
plains. Next piece of energy will be moving out of the Rockies on
Thursday. GFS is a bit more aggressive with the moisture return
and generates some precipitation in Southeast KS on Thursday. At
this point, would have preferred to go dry per WPC guidance/ECMWF,
but collaboration will keep small chances in extreme Southeast KS
Thursday afternoon/night. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Ceilings will lower a bit as we move through the day although VFR
is expected to prevail. We may see some light snow flurries
impacting portions of central KS where a very transient period of
MVFR cigs will be possible. A reinforcing shot of cool air will
arrive tonight in the wake of the subtle storm system with light
north to northeast winds prevailing across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    23  11  23  15 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      18   7  21  12 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          21   8  20  12 /  10  10   0  10
ElDorado        23  10  23  14 /  10  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   27  12  26  16 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         18   6  20  12 /  20  30   0  10
Great Bend      20   6  22  13 /  20  20   0   0
Salina          16   6  19  11 /  20  30   0  10
McPherson       16   6  19  11 /  10  20   0  10
Coffeyville     25  14  27  15 /   0  10   0  10
Chanute         22  12  24  13 /   0  10   0  10
Iola            22  11  23  13 /   0  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    24  13  25  13 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...MWM



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