Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 222123
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

TROUGH SHALL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. MOIST AIR AND FORCING SHALL BRING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST WAS TUESDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITIES OF SNOW. INITIALLY INTENDED TO LIMIT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER TWEAKS WERE MADE GIVEN MODEL GUIDANCE AND
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES ON THE TYPE AND CHANCES WITH
THIS TROUGH. CENTRAL KANSAS HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND ANTICIPATE SNOW TO BE THE MAIN TYPE GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILE
WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS STILL EXPECTED. FURTHER SOUTH...THERE WILL BE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TEMPERATURES. SOME THOUGHT
IS THAT IT MAY BE MORE OF THE RAIN VARIETY AT LEAST RIGHT AWAY
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS A TRICKY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST
AND ANTICIPATE CHANGES WILL BE MADE ONCE THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
TO FALL FURTHER UPSTREAM. TIMING HAS STAYED CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FORECAST ISSUANCE FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES TO BE DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND INITIAL START TIME AS THE SUN COMES UP FOR NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. OVERNIGHT NIGHT TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING...BUT
SOIL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER GIVEN ERODED CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

COOLER AIR WILL BE BROUGHT IN WITH THIS SYSTEM TO COOL THINGS
DOWN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS WHICH
ARE AROUND 40 DEGREES. THE LOW 50S WILL MAKE A RETURN ON
THURSDAY...BUT A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH FROM MID
MORNING TO SUNSET.

VP

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE TROUGH SHALL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
ONCE AGAIN BRING THE TEMPS BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THIS EXITING TROUGH COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW ON SATURDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRONG PUSH OF A TROUGH FROM CANADA FOR THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET ANY SORT OF
HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LET FUTURE FORECASTS PROVIDE BETTER
INSIGHT.

VP

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND FRONT.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KHUT NEAR END OF FORECAST. VERY STRONG/
GUSTY WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IT ITS WAKE. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  40  28  38 /  10  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      31  37  27  38 /  10  40  30  10
NEWTON          31  38  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
ELDORADO        32  40  29  37 /  10  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  43  29  39 /  10  10  30  10
RUSSELL         29  35  24  40 /  10  50  20  10
GREAT BEND      29  36  25  40 /  10  50  20  10
SALINA          30  35  26  37 /  10  50  30  10
MCPHERSON       31  36  27  37 /  10  40  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     34  45  31  39 /  10  10  30  20
CHANUTE         33  43  30  38 /  10  10  30  20
IOLA            33  42  30  38 /  10  10  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    33  43  30  39 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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