Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 012341
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
541 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAVE LED TO SOME SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
ERN KS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS TIGHT GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...HAS ALSO LED TO WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS ACROSS ERN KS AS
WELL.   EXPECT THIS FLURRY CHANCE TO END BY AROUND SUNSET AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ENDS AND MAIN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES
TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA.  THIS WILL ALSO SLACKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME FOR THE EVENING HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BREEZY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE
WIND ADVISORY GO AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z/SUN.

EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO SLACKEN AS THE OVERNIGHT CONTINUES...AS
THE POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE REGION BY MON MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A HUGE DROPOFF IN TEMPS...AS RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COULD SEE TEMPS FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN
CENTRAL KS...AND THE TEENS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

MON-TUE: EXPECT A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR MON AND TUE...AS MOST OF
THE PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. STILL THINK TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE ON MON BEFORE GOOD DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ON TUE.

WED: THE TRICKY DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WED...AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE NW FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT.  MODELS DIFFER
SOME ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST AND NAM/WRF AND ECMWF THE
SLOWEST. TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO A LARGE TEMP BUST ON
WED...AS SLOWER ARRIVAL INTO SRN KS MAY LEAD ANOTHER WARM DOWNSLOPE
DAY AND TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SRN KS.
THE SUREST BET SEEMS TO BE COLDER TEMPS FOR CENTRAL KS...WITH
FALLING TEMPS FOR WED AFTERNOON.  PLAN ON TAKING THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD WHEN IT COMES TO MAX TEMPS FOR SRN KS...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S.

ECMWF MODEL HAS FINALLY COME AROUND TO THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR
DEGREE THE NAM/WRF ON INTRODUCING PRECIP CHANCES FOR WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO OK...COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE TOP OF KS
FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WILL INTERACT
WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW AND THEN
ALL SNOW BY WED EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW CHANCE. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ALOT OF MOISTURE IN THE PRIME SNOW GROWTH
REGION...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW BY THE
EVENING HOURS.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE 600-700H LAYER COULD
LEAD TO SOME SNOW BANDING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME SNEAKY ONE TO TWO INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER INTO THU BEFORE RIDGING ALOFT AND BETTER
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETS UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST UNTIL THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY MORNING.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE AREA BY
MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    11  35  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON       9  35  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON           9  33  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        10  34  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   12  35  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL          6  38  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND       8  39  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA           7  34  23  57 /   0  10   0   0
MCPHERSON        8  34  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     15  33  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         13  32  24  53 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            12  31  24  52 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    13  33  25  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$



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