Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 230817
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
317 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP CLOSED LOW LIFTING
OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS WITH AN OPEN WAVE QUICKLY TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS AFFECTING MAINLY EASTERN KS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NW KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FEW SCT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER WAVE
DEPARTS...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR TODAY THROUGH SAT.
850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
TEMPS FRI AND SAT IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS FRI ONLY ADDS TO THE CONFIDENCE IN THESE VERY WARM
READINGS

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO AGREE WELL ON ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COMING ONSHORE BY SUN MORNING AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUN
NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS IN KEEPING THIS
AN OPEN...MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES FOR MON...BUT FEEL THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS. JUST LIKE THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING US
NOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS
MON INTO TUE AND WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE
TUE-WED TIME FRAME.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
IFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KCNU. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN AREA OF IFR CLOUDS
FILLING IN ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS AT KRSL/KSLN/KHUT WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY DURING THE MORNINGS HOURS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS...HOWEVER MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

RITZMAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  56  87  56 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  55  86  54 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          76  54  83  55 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        75  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  56  85  57 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  54  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          76  55  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  55  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     74  54  82  56 /  30  10   0   0
CHANUTE         74  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
IOLA            74  53  82  55 /  40  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    73  54  82  55 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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