National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KICT 190547
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1247 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

(+)TSRA CLUSTER THAT HAD RE-ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER CNTRL KS ~9PM
CONTINUES TO MOVE SE ~20KTS ACROSS SC KS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
AT MID-NGT. CLUSTER HAS AT TIMES REACHED SEVERITY WITH 1.25 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL. CLUSTER HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE MID-NGT BUT CELLS
ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. CHANGES INCORPORATED INTO MOST RECENT
UPDATE WERE TO ONCE AGAIN ADJUST POPS/WX/QPF GRIDS TO KEEP PACE WITH
DOPPLER TRENDS & TO INCREASE CLOUDS OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS FOCUS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SUMMER HEAT LATE WEEK AND BEYOND.

MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM DODGE CITY AND TOPEKA INDICATED NOT MUCH
WARMING WOULD BE NEEDED TO BREACH CAP...WHICH HAS CERTAINLY PROVED
TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTHERN KS
EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KS AND CENTRAL MO. A WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING THIS
ACTIVITY. WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD VENTURE INTO PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE DECENT
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK SO MAIN THREATS WILL BE
MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WINDS...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...LIKELY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM COULD VENTURE INTO AREAS WEST OF I-135
TOWARD DAWN...ORIGINATING FROM LINGERING HIGH PLAINS
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR FESTERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135 MUCH OF THE
DAY...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING 700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ON
EASTERN FRINGE OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE. THINKING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...AS TIGHT
MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST. INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER OVER EASTERN KS THROUGH THU MORNING.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...A STOUT MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY EARLY/MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED HIT-AND-MISS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRI-SUN...AS SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARE EVIDENT IN
THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FORCING SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. FORECAST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

TSRA CLUSTER CONTINUING TO MOVE SE~20KTS OVER SC KS SHOULD PASS
PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135 THRU ~07Z. NO CIG & VSBY RESTRICTIONS
HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE (+)TSRA & HAVE THEREFORE KEPT KICT IN
VFR STATUS BUT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA HAVE BEEN VARIABLE IN
BOTH SPEEDS & DIRECTIONS SO HAVE ALREADY UPDATED KICT TO ADDRESS THIS
ISSUE. INSOLATION COMBINES WITH DAMP GROUNDS TO ENABLE CUMULUS TO
REDEVELOP OVER ALL 5 TERMINALS ~18Z. PERSISTENT LWR-DECK TROF AXIS
THAT IS CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH CO/KS BORDER SHOULD ENABLE WINDS TO
BECOME DUE SLY & INCREASE TO ~20KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS ~30KTS OVER
MOST AREAS ~18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  74  93 /  40  30   0  10
HUTCHINSON      69  93  73  94 /  50  20   0  10
NEWTON          69  91  73  92 /  40  30   0  10
ELDORADO        69  89  75  91 /  30  40   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  91  74  92 /  30  30   0  10
RUSSELL         68  96  72  96 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  73  95 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          69  93  75  95 /  50  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  93  73  94 /  50  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     69  87  74  91 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         68  87  73  90 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            68  87  73  90 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  87  73  90 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES