Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301743
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1243 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Initial thinking regarding this afternoon-evening. Convectively-
enhanced cold frontal zone should stall across southern KS this
afternoon/evening. While convergence and large-scale forcing for
ascent will be minimal, strong heating and rich low-level moisture
should erode the cap enough for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms by mid-late afternoon, generally along/south of
Kingman-Wichita-El Dorado-Chanute. While widespread severe
weather is not expected, the strongest activity will be capable of
50-60 mph winds and dime-quarter size hail, along with torrential
downpours.

Later tonight the possibility exists once again for another High
Plains thunderstorm complex or two to move east/southeast,
possibly affecting mainly western portions of the forecast area.
Day shift forecaster will assess this threat further (along with
the rest of the 7 day forecast) and issue an update by mid-late
this afternoon.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

In the upper levels, currently have a deep trough situated over
eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS with some shortwave energy
diving southeast across southern Manitoba/western Ontario. At the
surface, strong cold front stretches from northern MN through
southern ND. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered over the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Just like the last few nights, we are watching an mcs push south
across southern Nebraska/northern KS with the big question how
far south and east it will make it this morning. At this point it
looks like at least central KS will get in on some precip this
morning but still not sold it will make it down to south central
KS based on how things have paned out the last few days. Outside
of the activity this morning, confidence is low that we`ll see any
additional development today, especially since the front doesn`t
look like it will make it as far south as models projected
yesterday. So one of the more significant changes to the going
forecast was to knock down pops quite a bit for today.

The better MCS activity will arrive tonight as the upper pattern
starts to flatten out, which will allow the dirty moonsonal flow
to spill into the area. Low levels will respond to this with an
overnight low level jet which will also increase moisture
transport in the 850-700mb layer. Confidence is high that storms
will either develop out over the high Plains late this afternoon
and move into the forecast area tonight or storms will develop on
the low level jet this evening over west-central KS. Regardless of
which scenario pans out, much of the forecast area should see
rain tonight and with precipitable water values around 2 inches,
any strong shower or storm will produce very high rainfall rates.
The overnight activity should linger Fri morning, especially over
the northeast portion of the forecast area. The same basic setup
will be in play Fri night with the better moisture transport and
low level jet convergence lifting slightly north. This would place
the better heavy rain potential Fri night into Sat morning over
central KS.

There is still decent agreement between the ECMWF and GFS in a
more robust upper wave sliding across the forecast area Sat
through Sun. This will produce another round of widespread showers
and storms with heavy rainfall and flooding still looking like the
main threat as we maintain a very tropical airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

By Sun night the upper impulse will be situated over far eastern
KS/western MO with the bulk of the rain chances out of the
forecast area by Mon morning, with most of the area remaining dry
for the 4th. Will run with some small storm chances Mon night
through Tue night but confidence in this panning out is very low
as there isn`t a significant upper wave or front to key on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Cannot rule out a few isolated thunderstorms mid/late this
afternoon and evening over southern KS along a stalling frontal
zone. Suspect activity will be fairly isolated given marginal
convergence and little upper support. Given this fact, left
mention out of Wichita and Chanute TAFs. Better chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight and especially
Friday, as the stalled frontal zone sharpens across the region
and shortwave energy begins to approach from the west. Given
uncertainty on timing and location of precipitation, only inserted
VCSH instead of VCTS at all sites for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    90  69  85  69 /  30  60  50  50
Hutchinson      90  68  83  67 /  30  60  50  60
Newton          91  68  82  66 /  30  60  50  60
ElDorado        91  69  83  68 /  30  60  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   91  70  85  70 /  40  60  50  40
Russell         90  66  79  64 /  30  50  50  60
Great Bend      91  66  81  65 /  30  60  50  60
Salina          93  67  80  65 /  30  50  50  60
McPherson       91  67  82  66 /  30  50  50  60
Coffeyville     91  71  84  70 /  30  60  60  40
Chanute         90  70  83  68 /  30  60  60  50
Iola            90  69  82  68 /  40  60  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  84  70 /  30  60  60  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADK
SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK



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