Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 052331
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
531 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A VERY MINOR NORTHWEST
FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA IN TO IOWA
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY, BUT THIS WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN
PROVIDE A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT THE MOST. AS A MATTER OF FACT,
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALTER THE MSLP PATTERN SUCH THAT WE WILL SEE
INCREASED WESTERLY LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM, LEADING TO MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. WE FOLLOWED THE WRF-ARW FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES AS IT HAS PERFORMED MUCH BETTER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES OF LATE. WE SHOULD SEE A
CORRIDOR OF MID 60S SPREAD IN TO CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING GREAT BEND
AND HUTCH.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY
TRANQUIL AND QUITE MILD. THE GENERAL TREND OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
IN THE GRIDS CONTINUES...WITH UPPER MID 60S TO LOWER 70S LITTERING
THE MAXT GRIDS TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD (MID NEXT
WEEK). UNTIL THEN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A MINOR NORTHWEST FLOW DISTURBANCE OR
TWO RIPPLING THROUGH THE NONDESCRIPT LONGWAVE PATTERN DEVOID OF MUCH
MOMENTUM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GENERALLY WEAK MSLP FIELD AND
RESULTANT LIGHT WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY
7, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A MINOR SOUTHERN STREAM
PERTURBATION CLIPPING FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY.

NWSDDC/UMSCHEID

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ONLY CHANGE THE WIND FIELD...CHANGING
THE WINDS TO BE MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY TO MID FRIDAY. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD...BUT NOT IMPACT OVERALL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    22  60  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      23  63  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          22  61  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        22  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   22  56  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         24  63  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  64  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          24  64  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       22  63  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     22  52  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         22  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            21  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    21  52  26  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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