Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 030257
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
957 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST FOR AT LEAST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE LEE TROUGH REMAINING TO WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WARM
AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
FRI...AND POSSIBLY SAT.  WITH THE LEE TROF REMAINING WELL W-NW OF
THE AREA...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO THE NW OF THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO DRIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL KS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING...DUE TO A WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. BUT WILL
LEAVE CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE THERMAL TEMP FIELDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH 850H AND 1000-850H THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL KS AND LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE. (ALMOST 5
TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS THE WAY TO
GO.  IF PREVIOUS DAYS ARE ANY INDICATION... THEN CURRENT GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN SHOWING A SLIGHT COOL BIAS...SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMEST
GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR MAX TEMPS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN
CONTINUING INTO SAT AND FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR SUN AS WELL...AS
MOST OF THE PLAINS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE NW US BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NRN PLAINS FOR
SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS...THE LEE TROUGH OVER NW KS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS BY SUN EVENING/NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING SOME OVER CENTRAL
KS. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD
TO SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS AS EARLY AS SUN
MORNING.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THIS FRONT/TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT FOR SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
OR BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BOTH ARE SIMILAR IN LIFTING AN UPPER IMPULSE
OUT OF THE SW US AND ACROSS KS ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THE STATIONARY
SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
IMPULSE WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

IN ADDITION...AS THIS FRONT STALL ACROSS KS TEMPS WILL FINALLY FALL
BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST PLANNED WITH VFR WEATHER PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY. LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF 25-32 KTS THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING SOME AFTER DARK. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
(ACCAS) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS WITH FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  94  73  94 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  95  73  94 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          71  94  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        70  93  72  93 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  94  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELL         72  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      71  96  73  96 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          72  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       71  95  72  93 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     69  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10
IOLA            69  91  71  92 /   0   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  91  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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