Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 011749
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE WEAK/MODEST...AND WITH
WEAK TO NIL LARGE SCALE ASCENT...QUESTIONS ARISE ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG
HEATING AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THE THREAT
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE NOW SLOWLY NORTHWARD
RETREATING WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALL-IN-ALL...AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT AREA THROUGH TONIGHT IS GENERALLY EAST
OF ANTHONY-HUTCHINSON...AND SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON-HILLSBORO.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. WE
SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KANSAS...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PERSISTS OVER THAT AREA. A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO. OTHERWISE THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE MATURING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS UPPER
WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. RICHER GULF MOISTURE ALREADY ON THE DOOR STEP ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
TODAY...COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RAMP UP THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS IN THE WARM SECTOR MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE PUSHING WARM FRONT A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO...DUE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DIVING MORE SOUTH. IF ENOUGH CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT/DRY LINE BOUNDARIES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. THE STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY.
IN ADDITION...A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY/0-3KM CAPE. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION.

JAKUB

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY
WITH ON GOING SHOWERS/STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THUS ALLOWING FOR
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REDEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEAR TAKES ON A PARALLEL ORIENTATION TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WITH THE MAIN THREAT AS DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL VACATE SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BY THURSDAY EVENING. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.

RITZMAN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL BE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY
BUT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...RSL IFR CIGS SHOULD SCT OUT AND RISE TO
MVFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ICT
AND CNU...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING FOR ICT-CNU...AND POSSIBLY HUT...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY
LATER TONIGHT AREAWIDE...AS STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR
CIGS ANTICIPATED IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  65  73  48 /  30  40  50  10
HUTCHINSON      86  62  71  46 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          84  63  72  47 /  30  50  50  10
ELDORADO        86  64  74  48 /  30  60  60  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   88  66  75  49 /  40  60  50  10
RUSSELL         81  55  67  43 /  10  60  50  10
GREAT BEND      82  56  67  44 /  10  50  40  10
SALINA          83  61  69  46 /  20  70  60  10
MCPHERSON       83  61  70  46 /  30  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     86  68  80  51 /  60  80  80  30
CHANUTE         84  67  78  50 /  60  80  80  30
IOLA            83  67  77  50 /  50  70  80  30
PARSONS-KPPF    85  67  79  50 /  60  80  80  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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