Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 060442
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED STORMS FINALLY DEVELOPED IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS OVER
EXTREME SE KS THIS EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY...REGENERATING ON ANY OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS.  DO NOT
THINK THE STORMS WILL LAST MUCH PAST SUNSET...AS HEATING OF THE DAY
IS LOST AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISNT ALL THAT FOCUSED.  WILL KEEP A
ISOLATED STORM MENTION IN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KS...AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT STAYS FOCUSED IN THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO KS BY MON MORNING.
CURRENT GIRD/FORECAST HAS POPS IN CENTRAL KS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH
LOOKS OKAY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE TOO FAST...GIVEN LACK OF ANY MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THIS AREA. WILL TRIM BACK THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE POPS...AS THINK ANY CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 56 UNTIL SUNRISE ON MON.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAMRAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION
FURTHER SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID
TRANSITION TO A DRY FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME
NORTHWARD MIGRATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS
TO RENEW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND
RETURNING MOISTURE ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL AVERAGE MUCH BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MON WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...REACHING KRSL AND KSLN BY
AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO INCREASE
ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON
AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY AROUND 18Z
AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS
FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. SO HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH
PREVAILING THUNDER FOR THE KICT/KHUT AND KCNU TAFS GIVEN THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST....AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  20  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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