Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 271806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
106 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Some elevated convection may persist into mid-morning where a
reservoir of modest CAPE remains across southern Kansas in a
zone of 850-700 mb warm advection. Otherwise, mid/upper level
ridging will translate east across the area today with a deepening
lee side surface trough resulting in a tightening pressure
gradient and increasing wind across central Kansas. Warming aloft
should limit or preclude much more than an isolated storms in the
afternoon, so plan to keep the forecast dry after this morning.
A more active westerly flow regime aloft will begin to affect the
central CONUS tonight and continue the rest of the week. A lead
shortwave will move across the northern/central Plains tonight
with the tail end of forcing for ascent expected to promote
some convection across the high Plains early this evening. Decent
elevated moisture transport on a strong nocturnal low level jet
should allow convection and possible MCS to develop/move eastward
across Nebraska into north central Kansas tonight. The challenge
remains how far south this activity may develop/propagate into
central Kansas as it impinges on warming aloft to the south. Any
storms which move across central Kansas could be locally strong.
Mesoscale outflow could influence convective trends, winds and
temperatures along any resultant boundary through early Wednesday.
Even so, expect a recovery in the mean southerly low level flow
by Wednesday afternoon with much warmer temperatures across the
area. A weak shortwave aloft will affect the central Plains again
Wednesday evening/night. The effective surface front/trough is
expected to be situated across central Kansas near peak heating
with a very unstable airmass and shear profiles supporting a few
severe storms. Another area of convection and potential MCS may
develop/organize a bit further west across the high Plains
Wednesday evening before moving/propagating east-southeastward
across central Kansas Wednesday night. This activity could also be
severe with warmer temperatures aloft limiting chances across
southern Kansas. Progged low level thickness values and thermal
profiles suggest maxs should be near or slightly above MOS
guidance the next couple of days.

A more significant upper trof is still expected to move across
the northern/central Plains on Thursday into Thursday night. This
should provide the best chances for convection with some severe
weather and heavy rainfall across the area.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

In the wake of the convective complex late Thursday night, the
effective surface cold front should push south into Oklahoma
during Friday. This should also shunt the better precip chances
south as well. However, due to some uncertainty still several
days out plan to retain some mention of PoPs across portions of
southern Kansas until early Saturday. Differences remain in the
medium range on timing of upper shortwaves moving across the
Plains by Sunday and Monday, though will retain modest chance PoPs
for now Saturday night through Sunday night. There is much better
agreement by the middle of next week as the GFS and ECMWF build
the strongest upper ridge of the warm season so far into Kansas.
If this holds sway, it portends to century topping temperatures
and a real Summer feel by Days 9 & 10.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Aviation concerns will be wind shear overnight along with storm

What is left of early morning elevated convection is still slowly
making its way across parts of the Flint Hills. These are not
expected to impact any TAF sites this afternoon. Robust upper wave
will approach the northern Rockies today and out into the
northern Plains this evening. This will allow low pressure to
strengthen over the high Plains which will bring a low level jet
to the region overnight. Will run with some low level wind shear
overnight with winds just off the surface gusting to 40-50kts.
Wind shear should subside by 15z Wed.

Storms are expected to develop over western Nebraska and possibly
down into NW KS this evening and track east and southeast
overnight. Some of this activity may try and flirt with north and
northeast portions of the forecast area, but confidence is not
high enough at this point to insert into TAF`s. Storm chances will
be much better over northeast KS/southern Nebraska and northern
MO overnight.


Wichita-KICT    89  72  95  72 /  10  20  20  20
Hutchinson      90  72  96  71 /  10  20  20  30
Newton          89  72  95  71 /  10  20  20  30
ElDorado        87  71  93  71 /  20  20  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   88  72  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
Russell         91  71  96  68 /  10  30  10  40
Great Bend      91  71  96  69 /  10  30  10  30
Salina          91  72  97  71 /  10  30  20  40
McPherson       90  72  96  70 /  10  30  20  30
Coffeyville     87  71  90  72 /  20   0  10  10
Chanute         86  70  89  71 /  20  10  10  20
Iola            86  69  89  71 /  20  10  10  20
Parsons-KPPF    86  70  89  72 /  20  10  10  10




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