Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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838
FXUS63 KICT 261725
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Stratus/low clouds continue to slowly burn off across central and
South Central KS at this time, as weak flow has led to a slow
burnoff.  Expect this trend to continue for the afternoon hours,
with a weak surface ridge moving across the Missouri valley.  The
main concern for the afternoon hours, will be over SE KS as a weak
mid level baroclinic zone will be located along the KS/OK border.
Best feature to focus on for a chance of isolated convection for
the afternoon hours will be a higher area of 200% above normal
precip water (PW) values over SE KS for the afternoon hours, with
some unstable air across this region and a weakly capped
environment. So will keep some slight pops for areas along the KS/OK
border for areas east of the KS turnpike for the late afternoon
hours as heating leads to a few isolated storms.  Weak upper flow
and very weak shear, will mean very slow or little movement to any
storm that can develop, which will lead to a locally heavy rainfall
threat, given the high PW values.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Today-tonight:
Tough forecast. Likely a tight 850MB moisture gradient across
forecast area, with mid clouds continuing to develop along/east
of i-35. Some models hint at precipitation breaking out on
northern edge of moisture return, with area VWPs showing low
level boundary is moving north. Will keep small pops going along
the border and spreading north a bit this morning. In addition,
some radiational fog is possible in the west, with hybrid
upslope/build down fog in the east. Does not appear to be a
widespread or dense fog setup at this time. Expect precipitation
to wane by midday. Not seeing much to generate more precipitation
until late tonight and that is not looking that good with remnant
mid level boundary probably in Northern KS. Have kept
precipitation going past midnight in Southeast KS due to
consensus.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Wednesday is also a tough call. Most models over the past few
nights have been consistent with decent 500MB/300MB trough moving
across the forecast area in the afternoon. Given little cap and
good instability, this seems like a good scenario for scattered
severe storms. Tonight`s model runs have generally backed off on
QPF and strength of upper trough, but given prior consistency in
an otherwise inconsistent pattern, am going to keep pops going.
Despite lack of QPF, models still generating 2000-3000 CAPE and
little CINH by 18z. Surface boundary is not expected until
evening, but models also have various trajectories for the
early morning MCS coming out of Nebraska, which if it encounters
the weakly capped airmass may continue to dive southeast during
the afternoon. Will keep status quo on hazardous weather outlook
given instability and hedge a bit more on timing, to account for
possibility that newer runs are correct with a mainly Wed evening/
overnight round of storms. Deeper moisture in Southeast KS will
justify at least a slight chance for a rogue storms during peak
heating. Suspect most of rain will exit area by daybreak Thursday,
but combo of intermittent office consistency and slim possibility
that surface boundary would hang somewhere in the area, will keep
pops going for now. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Little change in overall pattern into the weekend with area being
on northern fringe of upper ridge. Given west-north west flow, will
likely see periodic rounds of storms coming off the high plains,
with higher chances for storms in the early morning hours and the
rogue afternoon storms. By Sunday-Monday upper ridge will be
build across the plains with an uptick in temperatures and
decrease in precipitation probable. Highs on Sunday-Monday are
likely conservative and based on 1000-850mb thicknesses, at least
some triple digits seem likely in the western half of the forecast
area. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Could see some lingering MVFR cigs across Central and South Central
KS for a few more hours, as low level moisture continues to burn
off. The main concern for the afternoon hours will be across
portions of SE KS where a few isolated storms may develop in and
around the KCNU TAF site. So will go with a VCTS for a few hours
near KCNU.

Otherwise expect VFR conditions for the rest of the region overnight
into early Wed. Some hi-rez model solutions are hinting at some
patchy MVFR type vsbys from fog across Central KS for early Wed
morning, but will keep this mention out for now and see how the
evening goes.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  72  90  75 /  10  10  10  40
Hutchinson      89  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  50
Newton          88  70  90  73 /  10  10  10  50
ElDorado        87  71  89  73 /  10  10  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   88  72  89  74 /  20  20  10  30
Russell         91  69  90  71 /  10  10  20  50
Great Bend      90  69  90  72 /  10  10  10  40
Salina          91  71  89  72 /  10  10  20  50
McPherson       89  71  90  73 /  10  10  10  50
Coffeyville     88  72  89  74 /  30  20  20  30
Chanute         88  72  90  73 /  20  20  20  30
Iola            88  71  90  73 /  10  20  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    88  72  89  74 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham



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