Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300825
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
325 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Main challenge is convective chances/trends through Tuesday night
before we begin to dry out by mid-week and beyond. The next couple
of days will be characterized by moderate to strong diurnal
instability and relatively modest deep layer shear. For today,
while isolated elevated convection is possible this morning
across the area, daytime heating is expected to again promote
scattered surface based storms, mainly along/east of K-14, where
inhibition will be weakest in the presence of 2200-3500 j/kg
MLCAPE/SBCAPE respectively. Weak to modest deep layer shear and
likewise westerly flow aloft should result in slow moving storms
with potential for heavy rainfall as well as marginally severe
hail and a few strong downbursts. The focus for better coverage of
convective rainfall will be with the approaching surface cold
front late tonight through Tuesday night. One or more organized
storm clusters should evolve across the high Plains this evening
and move east-southeast into portions of central Kansas late
tonight. Elevated convection will likely persist further southeast
across the forecast area during Tuesday morning. The combination
of the effective surface cold front and/or mesoscale outflow
boundaries moving into the area will provide the focus for
additional convection, be it surface based or quasi-elevated
storms. Despite rather weak to modest shear/flow aloft and
somewhat more moderate CAPE values, a few strong to marginally
severe storms will be possible with a continued risk for heavy
rainfall. The upper trof will move from the northern Plains across
the Upper Midwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with drier and
cooler air gradually advecting south across the area. This
supports the going trend of decreasing/ending POPS from north to
south across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The end of the week looks dry and seasonably warm. An upper trof
will be situated across the southern Plains with rather weak
northerly flow aloft across Kansas. There is some potential for a
secondary surface cold front to drop south into the area by early
next weekend as an upper trof in the northern stream drops across
the Great Lakes. While this could bring a brief transient chance
for precip, the signal to noise ratio in the timing of the front
and quality of moisture along it suggest keeping the forecast dry
for now.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A few showers/storms will be possible across mainly central/south
central Kansas overnight. Otherwise southeast Kansas could see
some shallow patchy fog develop overnight and linger a bit past
sunrise. Additional showers/storms are expected to develop during
the afternoon and evening hours on Monday across much of the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  63  80  60 /  30  40  70  70
Hutchinson      85  62  79  58 /  30  50  60  60
Newton          84  62  79  59 /  30  50  70  60
ElDorado        84  63  79  60 /  30  40  70  70
Winfield-KWLD   85  64  80  61 /  30  30  60  70
Russell         85  60  77  54 /  30  60  60  40
Great Bend      85  61  78  55 /  30  60  60  40
Salina          86  62  79  57 /  30  60  60  60
McPherson       84  62  78  57 /  30  60  60  60
Coffeyville     84  63  81  63 /  40  30  60  70
Chanute         84  62  81  62 /  30  30  60  70
Iola            84  62  80  62 /  30  30  60  70
Parsons-KPPF    84  62  80  62 /  30  30  60  70

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ


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