Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131157
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
657 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

The main challenge today will be frontal placement. Most models
agree the front will stall over the CWA today but the main
question will be is how fast the front comes in and where it will
stall. This will have a major affect on temperatures today.
Current water vapor imagery indicates a closed of Gulf of Mexico
which will keep the moisture transport down today and the
precipitation chances low as well. Current winds are more
southerly this morning but nearly all models prog the winds to
shift to a more southwest and westerly flow during the day. This
will make it difficult for clouds to remain over much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas. Some downslope winds are possible
ahead of the front. Behind the front, temperatures are likely to
be as much at 10-15 degrees cooler making it highly likely the
areas along the I-70 corridor to have early day time highs.

Friday night through Saturday night, the front will continue to
be very slow moving but moisture transport will improve as an
upper level wave will move through the region along the stalled
front. Most models prog the front to retreat to the northwest
during the night Friday and early Saturday. By late Saturday
morning, moisture transport is expected to improve enough to allow
for some good showers and thunderstorm activity along the front
as it begins advance to the southeast. By late Saturday afternoon,
instability and shear will be conducive for widespread showers
and thunderstorms. Moisture transport and instability will be
strong enough to allow for some isolated severe thunderstorms and
heavy rain. Behind the front, temperatures will be much cooler and
the winds will pick up significantly. Areas along the I-70
corridor are likely to have winds in the 15-20 mph range sustained
with gust up to 35 mph possible during the afternoon and into the
overnight hours.

Sunday the front will be completely out of the region and the rain
will come to an end. High pressure will build into the region
keeping the winds down and temperatures will return to below
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Long term looks rather quiet with high pressure expected to
dominate much of next week. Temperatures will hover around normal
for the most part but will creep back up above normal toward the
end of the week as the next frontal system approaches. Showers and
thunderstorms will again be possible by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 654 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Challenging forecast with cold front stalling somewhere across the
area and then retreating north tonight as warm front. LIFR
conditions are likely at KRSL out of the box as saturated cooler
air immediately behind front mixes with saturated warmer air ahead
of the front. Conditions should improve once gusty north winds
arrive with relatively drier air. Timing of front at remainder of
sites is problematic, given wide variaty of model solutions.
Consensus will be for front to reatreat on Saturday with IFR
condition likely north of the front late in the period. -howreton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    82  64  82  46 /  10  20  70  60
Hutchinson      75  61  77  44 /  10  30  70  40
Newton          80  64  77  44 /  10  30  80  50
ElDorado        84  64  82  45 /  10  20  70  70
Winfield-KWLD   86  66  85  47 /  10  10  60  80
Russell         66  55  73  40 /  10  40  40  20
Great Bend      66  55  75  41 /  10  40  50  20
Salina          71  58  75  43 /  10  50  70  40
McPherson       74  60  76  43 /  10  40  70  40
Coffeyville     85  69  87  51 /   0   0  30  90
Chanute         85  68  86  49 /  10  10  50  90
Iola            85  68  85  48 /  10  10  50  90
Parsons-KPPF    85  69  86  51 /   0   0  40  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...PJH



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