Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46
636
FXUS63 KICT 160356
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1056 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE FIRST ONE IS LIFTING INTO SRN
KS AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MAY LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT THIS CHANCE...THUS THE
SLIGHT POPS. SO GOING SLIGHT POPS FOR CENTRAL KS LOOK FINE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THIS SECOND IMPULSE TO BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
CHANCE...MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE ON SAT.
CURRENT POP TRENDS LOOKS OKAY...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS EXPECTED.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW SAT MORNING CONVECTION AND REMNANT
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE AFFECTS CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR SAT AFTERNOON.
SAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MESOSCALE FORECASTING KIND OF DAY...WITH
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE STORM CHANCES SATURDAY...THEN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL PUSH EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN IT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD.

ALTHOUGH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS PM/EVE
SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED DUE TO AN ILL-DEFINED DRYLINE WITH
CONVERGENCE QUESTIONABLE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LACKING.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...LIKELY GENERATING AREAS OF CONVECTION WHICH COULD BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN KS/OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY WEAKENING AS 850 WINDS BACK
DIMINISHING MOISTURE INFLOW. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IN OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING CAN OCCUR EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BEHIND THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION
AREAS...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG APPEAR REASONABLE WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS OF 50-55 KNOTS AT A SUFFICIENT ANGLE TO THE DRYLINE TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WOULD DEVELOP
LATE SAT PM/EVE AS THE STRONG UPPER VORT LOBE SHIFTS OVER WESTERN
KS. AGAIN...THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON CLEARING/RECOVERY OCCURRING
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT IN CONCERT WITH THE 850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AXIS...WITH STORM MODES POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE LINEAR.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH AFTER 03-05Z.
THEREFORE...THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA SHOULD BE ALONG/WEST
OF INTERSTATE 135. ANY LINGERING STORMS IN SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD END
BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR IN.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONE UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THIS MEAN
UPPER TROUGH LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...NORTH OF THE OLD SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
STORM CHANCES TO THE KANSAS REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HIGHS
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 3 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AGAIN POSSIBLE.  EXPECT THE
LOWER CIGS TO BE IN PLACE AS ANOTHER IMPULSE ON THE SW FLOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF TSRA MOVING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT MORNING.  SO WILL GO WITH
VCTS FOR THE KICT/KHUT/KSLN TAFS...AS THIS IS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED.

EXPECT MOST OF THE TSRA CHANCE TO END LATE IN THE MORNING...BUT MVFR
CIGS WILL LINGER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS VERY HIGH.

TSRA CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FOR SAT
AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH A VCTS MENTION FOR THE KHUT/KRSL TAFS FOR
NOW...BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF SAT
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CHANCES.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  76  62  82 /  30  60  60  10
HUTCHINSON      64  77  60  83 /  30  60  50  10
NEWTON          64  75  62  82 /  30  60  60  10
ELDORADO        65  76  63  82 /  30  70  70  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  77  63  82 /  30  60  60  10
RUSSELL         64  77  55  81 /  40  40  50  10
GREAT BEND      64  76  54  81 /  40  50  50  10
SALINA          65  76  61  82 /  30  50  60  10
MCPHERSON       65  76  61  82 /  30  50  60  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  79  66  84 /  10  60  80  20
CHANUTE         66  79  65  83 /  10  60  80  20
IOLA            65  80  66  83 /  10  60  80  20
PARSONS-KPPF    66  79  65  83 /  10  60  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.