Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 132324
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
624 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

APPARENTLY A RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT WITH INCREASING SOUTH FLOW
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
CENTRAL KS AND SAG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER LARGE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MON
WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION/CLOUDS IN THE FAR
NORTH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME
SPRINKLES NEAR OK BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK SUN IN WEAK MOISTURE/
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION...BUT CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING START AFTER
MIDNIGHT SUN NIGHT...WITH DECENT CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF I-35 ON
MON. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS ON
MON NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR OK BORDER. MIXED SIGNALS FOR
CHANCES TUE NIGHT WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT PRECIPITATION
BREAKING OUT IN CENTRAL KS FROM MOISTURE/TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
-HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH DECENT AGREEMENT THAT INFLUX OF
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ON WED-WED NIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION
COULD START IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IN CENTRAL KS...BUT THE
DETAILS/TIMING OF THIS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT
BETWEEN MODELS OR RUN TO RUN. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW. APPEARS
THAT THERE WOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ONCE THE FRONT GOES
THROUGH...WITH A RETURN LATER IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS IS HIGH AS ECMWF BROKE ITS CONTINUITY WITH 1200 UTC
RUN...NOW SHOWING MORE RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT 0000 UTC
SAT AND ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US...VERY SIMILAR TO 0600
UTC GFS. GFS HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT...BUT LATEST 1200 UTC RUN
IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR 3 ECMWF RUNS. AT THIS POINT...ANYTHING IS
POSSIBLE...AND WILL LET INITIALIZATION/BLEND RIDE FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. MAY BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN FORECAST SUGGESTS...
ESPECIALLY ON MINIMUMS FOR THU/FRI MORNING AND MAXES ON WED.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY STRATOCU CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL
EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND BECOME GUSTY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    51  80  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
HUTCHINSON      48  79  64  80 /   0  10  20  30
NEWTON          48  78  64  80 /   0  10  20  40
ELDORADO        49  79  63  82 /  10  10  20  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  79  64  85 /  10  10  20  50
RUSSELL         47  79  61  69 /   0  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      47  80  63  74 /   0  10  20  20
SALINA          46  78  62  73 /   0  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       47  78  63  77 /   0  10  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     50  77  62  81 /  10  10  20  50
CHANUTE         48  76  61  79 /   0  10  20  60
IOLA            47  75  61  78 /   0  10  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    49  77  62  80 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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