Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251959
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

Dewpoints have dropped into the 40s across much of the area, and
will little cloud cover many spots will see lows cooler tonight than
last night. A weak dissipating cold front will move into the area
tonight but not have any real impact on the local weather. A
disturbance moving east from the central plains should bring a
slight increase in high clouds early Monday morning across the
southern part of the area, but again not much of an impact is
expected. We will experience below normal highs again on Monday
with maximums expected to range from the middle to upper 70s.

Temperatures will fall back into the 50s Monday night. An
approaching mid level short wave trough and associated cold front
will bring an increase in cloudiness along with a chance of
showers, mainly well after midnight. Any rain that occurs Monday
night should be very light.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

Isolated to scattered showers look to be ongoing Tuesday morning
as a trailing lobe of mid level energy swings through the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. A reinforcing shot of cool/dry late June air
will build into eastern Kentucky ahead of a 1020 mb surface ridge
approaching out of the Midwest. Enough forcing and moisture should
linger into the afternoon to spawn some lightning as lapse rates
steepen, owing to falling heights and cooler air aloft through the
base of the trough. Aforementioned surface ridge will build into
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region by early afternoon,
further making its influence felt into the evening and overnight
as skies clear and make way for patchy valley fog development.

Following another day of well below normal temperatures Tuesday,
warm air advection will ensue for mid-late week as readings warm
back into the 80s. Overnight lows will subsequently spike back
into the 60s Wednesday night following the recent stretch of 50s.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase Thursday as
surface high pressure shifts into the Atlantic and deep layer
southwesterly flow sets up. The most likely scenario for storms on
Thursday will be seeing propagation into the Lake Cumberland
region off of the Cumberland Plateau. A few storms will be
possible in the Bluegrass region as well, but a lack of forcing
will in all likelihood preclude much in the way if any activity
here. Orographic lift and perhaps a few lingering outflow
boundaries from prior convection will serve as the main forcing
mechanism through Friday as an upper level high off the southeast
U.S. coast keeps height fields fairly steady due to the
northwestward displacement of a northern stream upper low near the
south central Canadian border.

Increasing height falls should occur into the weekend given far
enough southward digging of the northern stream upper low. Surface
low pressure currently looks to remain in vicinity of the upper
Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, raising question as to whether a
cool frontal boundary will be able to propagate south of the Ohio
River later in the weekend. Nonetheless, chance PoPs and the
return of hot/humid conditions look to be in the offing through at
least Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2017

VFR conditions and light winds will predominate into Monday
despite a couple of weak systems that will effect the area. First
a weak cold front will drop into KY before dissipating tonight.
This will not have any impact on the local weather. A weak
disturbance moving east from the central plains should bring an
increase in high cloudiness across the southern part of the
forecast area by early Monday morning, but that will be the only
impact. With dry air in place across the area, fog will be limited
to the river valleys tonight and the TAF sites will not be
affected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...SBH



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