Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010854
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND
HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD
BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT
THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OVER THE REGION IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WERE BRINGING
LOCALIZED MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS WERE
STILL VFR. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL PRECIP TAPERS OFF
AND VFR RETURNS EVERYWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE GENERAL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
ABOUT 09Z AND 13Z. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS
INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL/KAS
AVIATION...HAL


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