Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1257 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

ALL OF THE SPRINKLES AND WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND
UPSTREAM...WHICH IS DOWN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...MORE SHOWERS ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
TAKE OUT MORNING MENTION OF SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARDS THE EVENING TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT WARMER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON THAN ANTICIPATED SO BUMPED UP THE TEMPS A DEGREE
OR TWO...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP
TO ADDRESS THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE SPRINKLE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN AS IT
SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. IT SEEMS THAT THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE PRECIP HANDLED FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO ISSUE A NEW ZFP
WHEN THE PRECIP EXITS THE AREA AS THERE WILL BE MORNING WORDING THAT
NEEDS ADDRESSED ANYWAY. DESPITE THIS LIGHT ACTIVITY...THE MORNING
INTO THE NOON PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET. TRENDS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR
THE LARGE SWATH OF PRECIP TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING. FOR NOW...JUST SENT
OUT A NEW SET OF GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
ADDRESS THE LIGHT SPRINKLES WITH A GRAPHICAL NOW CAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF THIS BAND
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE HRRR
HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL DISSIPATION WITH EACH NEW RUN.
MOST RECENT RUN INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE US WITH SOME RAIN...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR BLUE GRASS COUNTIES. THIS TREND SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY
THE FACT THAT THE BAND HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT THUS FAR. THEREFORE
INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS OUR NORTH FOR THE EARLY AND MID MORNING TIME
FRAME WHILE MAINTAINING A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. ALSO INCLUDED A
SWATH OF SPRINKLES AHEAD OF THIS INITIAL BAND FOR SOME AREAS THAT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ACTUAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY
WERE LATE IN PICKING UP ON POTENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST OF OUR AREA. HRRR IS PICKING UP ON ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
FAR TO OUR WEST...OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE COMMONWEALTH AND DOES
BRING THAT EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. BUT ACTIVITY SUPPOSEDLY WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AROUND MID MORNING.
OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO THOUGH WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE MODELS WIND
UP HANDLING THIS POORLY AS WELL AND POPS NEED TO BE RAMPED UP MORE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED OVER CUBA IS RETREATING EASTWARD
WITH APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN...SOUTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION IS ALSO BEGINNING
TO RETREAT EASTWARD. CONTINUED MOVEMENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS WILL INDUCE A SERIES OF SFC LOWS...THE FIRST
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES BY LATE TODAY. THIS FIRST LOW WILL DRAG A SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...REACHING OUR CWA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT AS THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER WET THROUGH TO THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WEAK IMPULSE RESPONSIBLE FOR SPRINKLES AND
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IS
EXITING TO OUR EAST...WITH CORRESPONDING ACTIVITY EXITING AS WELL.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH
TIME...THOUGH WE COULD SEE A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.
COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID MORNING TO NOON AS THE SECOND AREA OF ACTIVITY TO OUR FAR WEST
WEAKENS WHILE MOVING EASTWARD. OUR MAIN EVENT...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
INCREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF GUIDANCE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH A RELATIVELY LIMITED DIURNAL
RANGE OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO
PREFERRED TO GO WITH A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF
THE CWA MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SLOWLY LESSEN POPS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS BETTER LIFT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.
AFTER THIS THERE IS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE
REGION. OTHER THAN THAT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT
THROUGH THE DAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION GIVING WAY TO
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REGION. MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS EXIST AS
WE MOVE INTO THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY...HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY. TIMING
ON THE PRECIP DIFFER AT THIS POINT WITH ECMWF MOST PROGRESSIVE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY DID STICK REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND AND
TRYING TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY/COLLABORATION. THIS DOES GIVE WAY TO
SLIGHT POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS FRIDAY. GIVEN COOLER TEMPS
ONSET OF POPS WOULD BE A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN MODEL
DIVERGENCE DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE THROUGH THE
EVENING TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS OVER NIGHT AS A MOISTURE LADEN
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z WITH CEILINGS DROPPING
TO AIRFIELD MINIMUMS BY 12Z OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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