Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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910
FXUS63 KJKL 091206 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
706 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 706 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Some snow showers have been embedded within the broad area of
ongoing flurries at times through early this morning. These have
been enough to put down up to a tenth of an inch of snowfall in
places. Temperatures have dropped off into the lower 20s, allowing
any light covering to stick to most surfaces, including area
roads, bridges, and overpasses. As such, have hoisted an SPS
mentioning some slick spots through 10 am. Flurries and isolated
snow showers will gradually diminish through the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

At the surface, arctic high pressure remains poised across the
middle of the CONUS, with a secondary surface ridge nosed in
across the Ohio Valley. Aloft, a trough axis is currently
shifting east across the Mississippi Valley. Mainly snow flurries,
with a few heavier pockets of light snow, are flying across
eastern Kentucky currently. Temperatures are in the low to mid 20s
for most locations, with northwest winds in the 5 to 10 mph range,
allowing for wind chills in the teens.

The flow will gradually flatten out through the short term, as the
trough exits off to the east and dampens. The expansive surface high
pressure area will gradually weaken and shift towards the eastern
CONUS through Saturday.

Mostly cloudy skies and flurries will linger through this morning,
before gradual clearing takes place from southwest to northeast
this afternoon. Highs will be chilly, generally ranging from the
upper 20s to lower 30s. Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies
tonight and lighter winds will allow for teens across the board,
with the coldest readings generally in deeper valleys in the
southwest, closer to the center of the surface high. Saturday
highs will be several degrees warmer, with more sunshine and at
least weak return flow ensuing.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

A ridge of high pressure at the surface will bring warmer
temperatures to eastern Kentucky to begin the extended period. Highs
on Sunday should top out in the 40s as winds shift from the east to
the south Saturday night. Sunday morning should still start off
quite cold, as radiational cooling should be sufficient to allow
temperatures to fall into the 20s across the area. Temperatures
Sunday night and Monday will be even warmer, as the southerly flow
increases to 10 to 15 mph early Monday morning. The winds will be
increasing and shifting to the south as a developing area of low
pressure and its associated cold front begin displacing the ridge
Sunday afternoon and evening. The current model data is suggesting
that the first isolated rain showers will be moving into eastern
Kentucky early Sunday afternoon. The precipitation will gradually
increase in coverage Sunday night, as the front approaches from the
northwest. By 5 or 6Z Monday, most locations across eastern Kentucky
should have seen some rain. The rain will continue to push across
the area during the day on Monday, and will gradually taper off from
west to east as the upper low moves off to our east. Peak
precipitation probabilities should occur from late Sunday night
through early Monday afternoon. The rain is expected to taper off
quickly from late Monday afternoon through early Monday evening. The
last isolated showers should be exiting the area by 2Z or so Monday
night.

Once the initial weather system has moved out of the region, a
modest cool down will occur. We can expect temperatures to fall into
the 30s Monday night, and rise into the upper 40s and lower 50s on
Tuesday. Cloud cover should remain fairly widespread across the
region, as another area of low pressure is forecast to approach us
from the south Tuesday and Tuesday night. There may be just enough
cold air in place at the surface to allow some snow to mix with the
rain as a second area of low pressure moves in from the south. By 14
or 15Z on Tuesday the precipitation should be all rain. The rain is
not expected to be as widespread as with the initial system, as this
second area of low pressure will be quite bit weaker than the first
one. Isolated to scattered rain showers should be the norm on
Tuesday. Later Tuesday night, as colder air moves into the area from
the northwest, we could see another rain snow mix setting up between
roughly 5 and 10Z. This mixed precip should transition over to
mostly rain by 16 or 17Z. A surge of colder air is then expected to
push into the area from the northwest, as the trough of low pressure
moves off to the east. This should allow for any ongoing mixed
precipitation to change over to light snow during the afternoon and
evening hours. We may even see some light snow accumulations across
portions of eastern Kentucky by the end of the day on Wednesday.
This will mark a transition to much colder conditions, as an arctic
air mass will then settle over the region. In fact, Highs on
Wednesday will likely top out in the mid to upper 30s for most
locations. The main surge of cold air will occur Wednesday night as
winds shift to the northwest. Lows across the area on Thursday
morning are forecast to fall to around 20. Thursdays highs should be
a bit cooler than the day before, with readings ranging from the low
to mid 30s for most folks. Friday morning will dawn cold as well,
but with cloud cover increasing ahead of the next weather system,
readings should be several degrees warmer than on Thursday, with
lows in the low to mid 20s expected. A few snow showers may even be
moving into the area from the west by early Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Expect mainly MVFR ceilings with occasional snow flurries through
the rest of the morning. The clouds will then scatter out from
southwest to northeast this afternoon. West to northwest winds
will average 5 to 10 kts through this afternoon, before
diminishing to around 5 kts or less through this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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