Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250600
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Have updated for current sky cover trends, but still looking for
partly to mostly cloudy skies by dawn. Raised min temps a bit for
this morning, with obs not dropping off as fast as expected.

UPDATE Issued at 1039 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover
through the overnight period. Some of the cooler valleys have
dropped off into the upper 50s. Thicker high clouds continue to
move in from the west. This may thwart the valley drop off
somewhat; however, some thinning has been occurring at times, so
will keep the forecast lows intact, besides some small adjustments.
Updates have sent.

UPDATE Issued at 804 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

Plenty of high clouds continue to move in from the west this
evening, with low and mid clouds on the demise. Have reduced the
sky cover a bit through the overnight, and then allowed for an
increase in mid clouds through dawn. Temperatures are currently
running in the 60s and 70s. Clouds and light south to southwest
flow will keep the ridge/valley temperature split closer tonight.
Did increase temperatures on the ridges a bit more, with mid 50s
for lows, while some valleys, especially in the far east, slip
into the 40s eventually.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

Satellite imagery shows diminishing coverage in the low cloud
over the southwest part of the forecast area. This trend should
continue into this evening, before mid cloud begins to increase
across the entire area overnight. The amount of cloud present
tonight is problematic and overnight low temperatures will be
dependent on the amount of cloud cover. Continued to carry a small
ridge valley temperature difference for tonight, but depending on
actual sky cover this could be underdone or overdone.

Focus for the weekend will shift to the mid and upper level low
pressure system showing up nicely on satellite over the Texas
Panhandle this afternoon. The surface low is also over the
panhandle and the entire system will lift northeast on Saturday
and Saturday night. The models are in good agreement that the mid
and upper level low will be north of St. Louis by 12Z Sunday
morning. Current data still points towards Saturday being dry
across the area, with just a slight chance of thundershowers in
the far southwest part of the area by late afternoon. Showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms will spread slowly across the area
Saturday night as a cold front approaches the area. Rain chances
Saturday night will vary from around 50 percent in far east KY to
90 percent over the western part of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017

The extended period looks to be quite active, with several periods
of showers and thunderstorms expected. The first wave of rain is
expected Saturday night through Sunday night as a low pressure
system moves northeastward out of the south central Plains and
into the Great Lakes region. This system will drag a cold front
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, which will spark numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms in the warm and fairly muggy
air mass ahead of the boundary. Once the low passes by to our
north, the rain will taper off steadily Sunday night into early
Monday morning. The model data has the front stalling just to the
south of the area on Monday. A wave of low pressure is then
forecast to form along the western end of the boundary. This area
of low pressure is then expected to move northward across our area
Monday and Monday night, bringing more rounds of showers and a few
thunderstorms to eastern Kentucky. This round of rain will likely
linger across the area through the day on Wednesday, depending on
how quickly the parent low pulls eastward out of the region. A
ridge of high pressure should then settle over the region
Wednesday night, bringing a temporary break from the
precipitation. However, the break may be short lived, as the
models have another weather system coming out of the Plains and
across our neck of the woods again Thursday and Thursday night. At
this time, due to model uncertainty late in the period, decided to
leave out thunder for now to end the extended. Temperatures
through out the period should be well above normal, with daily
highs in the 60s and 70s, and nightly lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected to hold. However, MVFR conditions and
showers could be about ready to move eastward into the area
around KEKQ and KSME at the end of the period. South to southwest
winds will pick up and gust to around 20 kts over much of the area
during the day Saturday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL


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