Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 150407
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1107 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

Have updated for sky cover and temps in first period. Readings in
the southwestern part of the area look like they are leveling off
as clouds increase. Readings further east will drop off for just a
while longer before the clouds arrive.

UPDATE Issued at 915 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

It`s turned into a very tough temperature forecast for tonight.
Mid/high level clouds have been present over the middle and
eastern portions of the forecast area this evening, and
temperatures have not cooled off as fast as was forecast in
valleys. Meanwhile, a mostly clear area was working its way in
from the west, and the western portion of the area has cooled off
more than was expected. The mostly clear area should work eastward
tonight, but more clouds will be on the way in from the west. Warm
air advection will also be on the increase through the night. In
light of this, have lowered forecast mins in the west, and allowed
for the coldest temperatures of the night to work their way east
across the area, with readings creeping higher everywhere before
dawn.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

Mid/high clouds have been a bit more extensive than forecast this
evening. Otherwise, the inherited forecast looks on track and few
changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

All eyes are centered on a clipper system that will be diving
southeast across the western great lakes into tomorrow, before
crossing the northern Ohio valley region and southern great lakes
Monday night into Tuesday. The first chances for snow will come
late tonight into early Monday morning as a warm front crosses the
area. Low level dry air will be firmly entrenched with moisture
recovery very poor. This fact, combined with southeast flow
developing off the higher terrain will keep measurable snow
chances fairly low tonight. However, better chances could be seen
in the bluegrass region as Bufkit soundings show a fairly
saturated column by 09z tonight. In fact, all operational models
are spitting out some liquid across this region. Given the
potential for a low QPF/high pop set up, have opted to go up to
likely pops for the bluegrass region late tonight. With moderately
high snow ratios, we could see upwards of a quarter of an inch of
snow in the bluegrass. Expect mainly flurries elsewhere, but
trends will need to be monitored to see if the snow ends up being
a bit more widespread. As for lows tonight, we should see a steep
drop in the eastern valleys this evening, likely reaching the
single digits by late evening. However, as clouds thicken up
tonight, we will see temperatures level off before starting to
rise towards dawn. Kept pretty close to previous forecast that had
this idea covered well.

On Monday, we will see a break from snow chances as we await the
arctic front that will be pushing southeast across Indiana and
western Kentucky. This front will be encroaching upon our northern
counties by late in the day with snow chances returning to the
area from north to south late Monday through Monday night. Model
QPF continues to stay fairly light Monday night, but snow ratios
remain fairly elevated. Thus, it looks like good potential for 1
to 2 inches of snow for much of the area Monday night. Snowfall in
southeast Kentucky may stay lighter as precipitation will arrive
very late Monday night, with the bulk of the precipitation coming
on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 412 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

An amplified long wave pattern will continue to rule across the
CONUS through the rest of the week. A positively tilted trough
will start off across the central CONUS, with a ridge moving
through the Continental Divide, and another trough impinging on
the Pacific Northwest. The central CONUS trough will move to the
east through Wednesday, escorting an arctic front through the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Light snow and a reinforcing shot of
very cold air will result. The pattern then modifies through the
rest of the week, as the eastern Pacific trough makes its way
onshore, resulting in generally rising heights east of the
Mississippi through the first half of the weekend. The trough will
eventually move into the Plains by Sunday, with falling heights
across the Mississippi Valley and rain chances gradually
increasing across our region.

Light snow and colder temperatures will be ongoing on Tuesday, as
the arctic front moves off to the southeast, while upper level
support from a right entrance region of a jet streak lingers
across southeastern Kentucky through the afternoon. Total snowfall
out of this system will be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with the
highest terrain across our southeast likely seeing the higher end
totals as surface winds veer around to the northwest. Lingering
snow showers will taper off to flurries from north to south
Tuesday evening, with flurries likely being seen at times through
Wednesday morning, as moisture lingers in the -12C to -18C range.
Lows Wednesday morning will be in the single digits, with clouds
likely preventing anything much colder.

Temperatures will rebound to around 20 degrees on Wednesday, with
valleys likely dipping into the single digits once again
Wednesday night. Readings could approach zero or colder depending
on the remaining snowpack and the proximity of the surface ridge.
Temperatures will then moderate from Thursday through Saturday,
as heights recover aloft and the surface high shifts to our east.
Highs will be in the 50s by Saturday. Some places will approach 60
degrees by Sunday, with at least a small threat of rain showers by
that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

Although ceilings are expected through most of the period,
conditions will be predominantly VFR. An exception could be in
areas near/north of I-64 around dawn, as a brief period of light
snow occurs with a potential for MVFR at times. The same area can
expect light snow to move back in from the northwest toward the
end of the period, along with MVFR conditions. Winds will be light
and variable until late morning Monday, when they will pick up
around 10 kts out of the southwest for the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday
for KYZ044-050>052.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



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