Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

DESPITE SOME HOURLY TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY OFF THIS EVENING HEADING
INTO TONIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH BUT MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY...ESPECIALLY WITH DOWN SLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAWN
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE CURRENT SURFACE MAP FEATURES RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH DEEPER LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO ALIGNED ALONG
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...DEEPER TROUGHING IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MODEST RIDGING OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN
CONUS. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THANKS TO THIS RIDGING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...TO THE
UPPER 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS IN PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SWING
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WAVE WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY WITH EARLY
CLEARING. EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AT LEAST...BEFORE
MODIFYING TOWARDS DAWN AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

ONCE THE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVE MOVES OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRY WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED AS SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENGAGE OUT AHEAD OF AN
EVOLVING DYNAMIC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING FROM THE WEST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS THREATENING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOWARDS
DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
40S...ALTHOUGH A FEW UPPER 30 DEGREE READINGS MAY BE ACHIEVABLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL US. A ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEING APPROACHING THE REGION TUESDAY. THEREFORE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND EVENTUALLY ENERGY WILL
GET TRANSFERRED SOUTH AS LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE TN/OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. KEEP IN MIND THERE
CONTINUES TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING/DEPTH/LOCATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
GULF. ONE NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF THIS IN TERMS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN
THE CONTINUAL GENERAL WARMING TREND OF THIS SYSTEM...THEREFORE THIS
WILL LEAD IMPLICATIONS ON THE CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW.
GENERALLY WAS USED HERE ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH
ON HOW QUICKLY COOLER AIR FILTERS IN WITH LATEST 12Z GFS SLIGHTLY
COOLER. GIVEN THE LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER SOLUTIONS THINKING CONTINUES
TO BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...HOWEVER CHANGE OVER WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. OTHER ISSUES AGAINST MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WE GET DRY SLOTTED GIVING WAY TO
LITTLE IF ANY DENDRITIC GROWTH AND WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY NOT
ALLOWING FOR ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT. ISSUE TWO AND POSSIBLY MORE
CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GUST 30 TO 40 ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CROSSES.

OTHERWISE THE SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO WRAP UP AND NEGATIVELY TILT. POPS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS FAR NE CWA WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE MOVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
AND RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE AND HIGHS MAKING IT BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WHILE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHT TO CHANCES RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY BASED ON THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LITTLE MOISTURE TO PLAY WITH. THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE A BIT AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS QUICKLY MOVES HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE US...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES ALONG THE SE COASTAL STATES BRINGING SOME POPS
ACROSS MAINLY SE KY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS COULD BE IN THE FORM OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED
TO STICK WITH BLEND AT THIS POINT WHICH ONLY KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 718 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS DAWN. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG FROM
DEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BEFORE
AROUND 12Z AND THEN STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE INVERSION BREAK WITH SOME 10 KNOT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY VFR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






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