Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 151941
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
341 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TWO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN THE SHORT TERM. FIRST
WILL BE THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AS A LATE SEASON ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH CLEAR AND NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...THIS SEEMS LIKE A VERY REASONABLE
SCENARIO. IN FACT...THE EXISTING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT LOOKED VERY GOOD. A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE HERE AND
THERE FRO TONIGHTS LOWS...BUT OVERALL WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING
TEMPERATURES EASILY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST
FOLKS...WITH SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS.
THE OTHER ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FROST
AND A HARD FREEZE. THE NEW FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THIS AND
OUR FREEZE WARNING HAS ALREADY BEEN UPDATED AND IS GOOD UNTIL 10 PM
THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL
EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE EVENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THINGS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS WE WILL SEE TONIGHT.
AREAS OF FROST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AND THE SITUATION WILL
BEAR WATCHING TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER FREEZE PRODUCT WILL
NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THURSDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
BOARD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF NUANCED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT MAKES
THE EXTENDED FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT. ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AND AS IT DOES IT WILL FALL APART. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHET ER THIS WILL BE MOSTLY JUST CLOUDS OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. CHOSE TO
GO WITH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH TENDS TO PUT MORE ENERGY WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM RATHER THAN
THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
END OF THE THE PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA.
THE ECMWF DOES NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SJS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE AREA. JKL AND LOZ COULD SEE SOME
FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NOTHING
THAT SHOULD CREATE ANY REAL ISSUES FOR AVIATORS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA AND LOW
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PERSIST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL FOUR TAF SITES BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR BY BETWEEN 1 AND 3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR





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