Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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995
FXUS63 KJKL 101845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE LAST OF THIS SNOW IS STILL PACKING A PUNCH WITH JKL VIS GOING
DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE IN A SHOWER JUST THIS PAST HOUR AND THE
RADAR STILL RATHER ROBUST FOR OUR EASTERNMOST AREAS.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE FAR EAST THROUGH
6 PM WHILE ALLOWING THE WESTERN ONE TO EXPIRE. THE POPS AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WERE ALSO UPPED THROUGH 00Z WITH THIS UPDATE ALONG WITH A
FINE TUNING OF THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MESO SCALE MODELS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH OUT THE DAY TODAY AND
THE FRIGIDLY COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AS A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO OUR EAST AND HEADS INTO
NEW ENGLAND. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 5Z TONIGHT. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS...LIKELY
ON THE ORDER OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN MOST
INSTANCES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS AND THE SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THEY WILL CREATE FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAVE IN PLACE...AND CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY ONLY BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S AROUND THE
AREA. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...AS THE
MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AROUND THE AREA.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER...AS CLOUD COVER BECOMES
SCATTERED AND WE FINALLY GETS SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR PERHAPS MAXING OUT AROUND 30 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HUDSON BAY LOW REMAINS PARKED. AFTER
A COLD BUT DRY PERIOD LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS LOW AND
COMBINE WITH A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND
OR LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS BOTH
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. LOCALES
NEARER THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE AN
INCH OR MORE AS UPSLOPE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING.

A POTENT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ADVECT SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF A 1040+ MB SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES WITH MORE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...SUCH
AS BLACK MOUNTAIN...PERHAPS BEING LUCKY TO REACH DOUBLE DIGITS.
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MAKE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD.

BACKING UPPER FLOW WILL THEN ENSUE FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...LIKELY BRINGING A LONG AWAITED WARM UP TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS LOWER
CANADA AND TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AT THIS POINT. WHILE
WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY APPEAR IN THE OFFING AT THIS
TIME...WILL HAVE TO WATCH EVOLUTION/PHASING OF THESE DISTURBANCES
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEGREE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEY WILL
PRODUCE IN ORDER TO BETTER PINPOINT TEMPERATURES AND SUBSEQUENTLY
TRANSITION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY FROM JKL
EAST. IN GENERAL...THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS WILL BRING VIS TO LIFR AND ALONG WITH IFR CIGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD BE MORE INFREQUENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH 15 TO 20 KT WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND
15 KTS. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS STILL AROUND BY 00Z. THE
LAST REMAINING SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 06Z
TONIGHT WITH ANY MVFR AND LOW VFR CIGS BREAKING UP TOWARDS DAWN.
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ087-
088-104-106>110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...GREIF



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