Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 222019
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING HAS TAKEN HOLD OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CU HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE 3 TO 4K FT
LEVEL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A CONTINUATION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEARS BODIES OF
WATER. AS SUCH...KEPT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST/S MENTION OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AFTER 6Z.

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. AS THIS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EASTWARD...EXPECT IT TO FIZZLE
OUT UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG RIDGING...WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS AND STRENGTHENS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT SOME OF THIS CLOUD COVER TO LIKELY MAKE IT INTO
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT MAINLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE DYING UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND GENERALLY OF THE
HIGH CIRRUS/STRATO VARIETY. THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT OR THE OVERALL WEATHER
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

SPEAKING OF TOMORROW...OTHER THAN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY BUT REMAINING LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THEIR
INCREASING TREND INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. STILL LOOKING A
DECENT RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE 40S OVERNIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID
50S BY TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GENERALLY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
AT LEAST A DIURNAL FLAVOR EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT MIDWEEK PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BRINGING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE COVERAGE
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASE.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE
GENERALLY DOMINATING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEAR BEST CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THE REGION MIGHT END UP
CAPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A FEW DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SHOULD
POSE LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING IS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NIGHT...LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING IF THIS FOG WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE TAF SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
REMOVE FROM PREVIOUS TAFS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FOG
THAT OCCURRED THE NIGHT BEFORE. EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW TO THAT OF TODAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW DIURNAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE ONLY CAVEAT
WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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