Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 311219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS BROKEN OUT IN EARNEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND IS MOVING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MEASURING IN THE NORTH...WITH A LITTLE MORE SPOTTY MEASURING IN THE
SOUTH. HAVE BUMPED THE POPS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND ALSO
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
SPILLING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ALOFT...
TROUGHING REMAINS POISED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE
RIDGING RESIDES ALONG THE ROCKIES. PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWESTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SHORT WAVE MOVING
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. A MUCH MORE INTENSE SHORT WAVE IS
CURRENTLY SPIRALING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN
REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT WAVE...CLOSING IT OFF AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN
INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR IS PULLED IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS LATER
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. DETAILS ON THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES CONTINUE TO VARY WITHIN THE MODELS...WITH THE
GFS SHOWING A WARMER TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE NAM AND
THE ECMWF ARE A BIT COLDER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LEFT THE SNOWFALL TOTALS UNCHANGED...WITH THE
CHANGEOVER TIMING ALSO PRETTY SIMILAR COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

TODAY WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CLOSES IN THE AREA. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HAVE STUCK ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE...WITH MOST
LOCATION SETTLING AT EITHER SIDE OF THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
EVENING...BEFORE IT FILLS IN RAPIDLY AGAIN AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALONG
BLACK MOUNTAIN NEAR OR JUST AFTER DUSK...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
LOWERING WITH TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELEVATIONS NEAR THE 1500 FOOT
MARK STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD STARTING POINT OF A SLUSHY INCH
ACCUMULATION...WITH BLACK MOUNTAIN WINDING UP WITH AROUND A HALF FOOT
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. ELSEWHERE...WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
RESIST THE ACCUMULATION...WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATING
MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.

PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 40 DEGREES FOR THE HIGHS...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

WINTRY WEATHER WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST. MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL COMBINE WITH BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MOSTLY SNOW ABOVE 1500
FEET SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...AS THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT...LEADING TO LOSS OF THE ICE CRYSTALS
NECESSARY TO PRODUCE SNOWFLAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF THE WEATHER OFFICE. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A FRIGID CANADIAN
AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE COLDER OF THE TWO NIGHTS OVERALL...WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED. OUR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS WILL BE
THE COLDEST SPOTS AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE
DISSIPATING FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDER...SO ONLY GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS WERE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WITH THE GFS MODEL WASHING OUT THE FRONT SOMEWHAT ON
WEDNESDAY...DECIDED NOT TO GO GANG BUSTERS WITH POPS FOR THE TIME
BEING...OR AT LEAST UNTIL THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A MODEST WARM UP WILL BEGIN
ON MONDAY...AS THE MERCURY RISES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING MVFR
STATUS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO CHANGE THE RAIN TO
SNOW...FIRST IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CLOSER TO
00Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DOWN TO THE VALLEYS WITH TIME
THROUGH 06Z AND BEYOND. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE IFR RANGE...WITH LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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