Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270009

National Weather Service Jackson KY
809 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 703 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Winds have died down more than was expected this evening, and
the forecast values have been lowered a bit. We should see an
increase late tonight (especially outside of deep valleys) as a
cold front approaches and the pressure gradient tightens.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

19z sfc analysis shows a low pressure system moving into the upper
midwest with a cold front approaching Kentucky. A warm front has
developed and lifted northeast of the CWA placing eastern
Kentucky in the warm sector of this approaching low. Plenty of
sunshine ahead of this front today sent temperatures into the mid
and upper 70s while dewpoints stayed up better than past
afternoons - only into the mid and upper 40s. Winds, meanwhile,
picked up from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the western
parts of the area with some gusts to 20 mph or so while they
remained a notch lighter over the eastern parts of the area.

The models are in pretty good agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast as they all depict a weakening
trough moving through the Great Lakes. A band of energy will
extend south from this and traipse into and across eastern
Kentucky overnight and into Thursday morning. Low heights will
stick around through Thursday night but the southwest ridge looks
to build over southwest Texas and northeast into our area by the
end of the week. Given the general model agreement with this
pattern through Friday morning have favored the blended solution
with special attention to the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12

Sensible weather will feature a mostly dry cold front pressing
through central and eastern Kentucky Thursday morning with at best
some scattered showers. Still cannot rule out a stray
thunderstorm with this, but for consistency sake have left them
out of the forecast - especially given the low PoPs for this
desiccating  frontal passage into our dry area of late. The
shower/sprinkle chances pass by early afternoon as the front moves
on east Thursday with a change in the wind direction, a few gusts
to 25 mph from the west and cooler/drier air inbound. Accordingly,
expect temperatures to bottom out in the low to mid 40s most
places Friday morning along with some patchy valley fog. Given
that this is likely another front that will not bring significant
rain to the area we are looking to get even drier through the
weekend and into next week raising fire weather concerns as
antecedent conditions only get drier going forward.

Started with the CONSShort/ShortBlend for the bulk of the grids
with adjustments to the temps tonight and to a lesser extent on
Thursday night based on terrain distinctions. As for PoPs - did
drop them down a bit on Thursday - more toward the previous
forecast given the drying front - ending up a notch below MOS

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

A upper level wave will be exiting to the east on Friday, as a
surface high progresses east into the region. In the wake of this
wave strong upper level ridging will build into the region. At the
surface high pressure will build into the Carolinas and warm air
advection will kick in on the backside. This ridging remains in
place until we move toward Sunday, as a northern stream shortwave
briefly suppresses the ridge. Then ridging quickly builds east
with strong heights building all the way into the Great Lakes.
Another northern stream wave will pass into the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes by Monday night. A cold front will also progress east,
but will become weak by the time it makes it east.

Impacts for the period will be the above normal temps and dry
weather for most of the period. The upper level wave on Sunday
afternoon could bring a slight chance of a showers in the far
east. However would be hesitant to go much more than slight given
the dry antecedent conditions, lack of jet support, and lack of
multiple model support. Before this ahead of this wave on Saturday
will be a gusty day wind wise and could be something that needs to
be watched fire weather wise. Otherwise the period will be met
with well above normal temps, as we see highs in the mid 70s to
even around 80 for most of the period. This will put several days
especially Saturday and Tuesday into near to record highs. Matter
of fact the record high for the month of November is only 82
degrees at Jackson and London and these could also be in jeopardy.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

Primarily VFR conditions will be experienced through the period.
High clouds of this evening will lower and thicken with time,
eventually resulting in low VFR ceilings late in the period. There
could be incursions into MVFR territory at some locations late
Thursday. A few showers can`t be ruled out during the day
Thursday, in association with a cold front moving through. Winds
will increase ahead of the cold front, possibly resulting in low
level wind shear late tonight and early Thursday morning. During
the day, mixing will end any shear, but will lead to a few gusts
around 20kts from the southwest.




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