Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 132050
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW TODAY...MUCH OF
EASTERN KY EXPERIENCED NW FLOW...ENHANCED IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. THIS NW FLOW
ALLOWED MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS EASTERN
KY...AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED PATCHES OF SNOW FLURRIES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND FAR EASTERN CWA. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN CLOSER TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND PREVENT BEST MOISTURE FROM PROTRUDING
SO FAR SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CUTTING OFF ANY FURTHER
FLURRY ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD
OVERNIGHT...THE MAIN ELEMENT OF CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

STRONG NW TO SE FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL DRIER BUT MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
NIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL FORM...AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ENSUE. IT IS LIKELY THAT MANY OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS
WILL SEE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WHILE MOST OF
THE RIDGES WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE THE TEENS. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT
WINDS COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS AROUND 0 OR EVEN SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE DAY. VEERING SURFACE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING RIDGE WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR ALOFT LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP DRAW A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE NORTH AHEAD OF
THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
HIGH-MID CLOUD COVER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY...BEFORE LOW CLOUDS AND RESULTING SNOW COMMENCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL SEVERAL DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT...WE CAN PRETTY
MUCH ENSURE THAT ALL PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY MORNING WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON TIMING...AND THE OUTLIER AS SUCH...SO
TRENDED MORE TOWARDS A ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION FOR BOTH TIMING AND
SNOW RATIOS. GENERALLY AGREED WITH WPC QPF GUIDANCE...WHICH WHEN
PAIRED WITH FORECASTED SNOW RATIOS...RESULTED IN TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE
2.5 TO 4.5 RANGE. DUE TO THE ELONGATED NEARLY 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD OF
SNOW...THIS ONLY FALLS INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER SOME GOOD
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE DECIDED TO HOIST OUR
ADVISORY WITH A START TIME OF 18Z SUNDAY...AND ENDING 15Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY HAS JUST MOVED ONSHORE
AND SHOULD BE SAMPLED BETTER BY OUR UPPER AIR NETWORK THIS EVENING
FOR THE 00Z MODELS. IN THE MEANTIME...WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH
SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES...AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO A BLENDED
APPROACH AS POSSIBLE TO HEDGE FROM THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. AS IT
STANDS NOW...LOOKS LIKE A SNOW SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN
MONDAY MORNING AS A SOMEWHAT DEEP WEDGE OF WARM AIR SPREADS
NORTHWARD MONDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WHERE THE MODELS
DIFFER, IS HOW WRAPPED UP THE SYSTEM GETS AND THUS HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM AIR CAN MAKE IT. FOR NOW...OPTING TO GO WITH THE RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR AS MOISTURE PULLS OUT
MONDAY NIGHT...WE MAY SEE SNOW MIX BACK IN OR COMPLETELY CHANGE
BACK OVER. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A FASTER END TO THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE MORE
LIMITED. THE BRIEF LULL WILL BE SHORT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
CLIPPER DIVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE
FAVORING A MORE NORTHERN TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP ALL
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY RAIN AT THE ONSET TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY...COLD AIR WILL SPREAD
BACK IN AND WE MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS...LIGHT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. FINALLY WE SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD
A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY...PROMOTING
NW FLOW BUT KEEPING WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS WE
CONTINUE TO LOSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. AS A RESULT OF THIS NW
FLOW...WE ARE STILL TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE COMING OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY...MAINLY AT KSJS...
KSYM...AND POSSIBLY KJKL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
IN CONTROL AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS HIGH-MID CLOUDS
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS SNOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW


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