Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 280635 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA...THEY HAVE MANAGED TO BUILD INTO THE FAR EAST THANKS TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING FROM THESE EASTERN CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MIX OF WEAK CAA AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE RIDGES CAN BE AS COOL
AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE MORE OPEN AREAS
ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER. FOR INSTANCE...JKL IS CURRENTLY 19 DEGREES WHILE
QUICKSAND IS AT 17 AND SME/LOZ ARE 25 AND 23 RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE INTRICACIES THROUGH DAWN. THESE
GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF




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