Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230559
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Still seeing some lingering shower activity across the Lake
Cumberland region at this hour, but should see this continue to
remain light and likely dissipate by dawn. Greatest impact will be
fog development, with perhaps dense conditions materializing in
deeper valleys owing to earlier day rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Two issues to address in the short term part of the forecast.
First is the chance for thunderstorms for the remainder of today
and then on Saturday. A weak mid level short wave is passing
across the area this afternoon. Convection that has been
developing in the northern part of our area has been short lived
with an apparent mid level cap in place which is hinted at by some
of the model data. As this cap continues to weaken should see
isolated to scattered storms mainly in the north and west for the
latter part of the afternoon. With outflow from any convection
late today possibly triggering additional convection, the threat
for a few showers and thunderstorms will linger into the
overnight. With the passage of the short wave tonight it appears
that the better chance for thunderstorms on Saturday will be over
the southern part of the area. However chance will remain low,
about 30 percent chance in the south and 20 percent chance in the
north on Saturday.

The second issue to address is the heat for Saturday. Current
temperature forecast for Saturday is for maximums in the lower
90s, and this will combine with humidity to once again push heat
indices to around 100. With heat advisory criteria of 105 degrees
will still not need to issue a heat advisory for our area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Models continue to show good agreement and continuity with mid and
upper level features through the period. Broad, flattened mid and
upper level ridge across the southern CONUS buckles in response to
multiple short wave troughs tracking across the northern tier. The
main center of the high retrogrades to the west coast just as the
all too familiar Bermuda High reforms off the southeastern United
States. In between a mean trough develops over the Upper Mid-West
and Great Lake Region by the end of the forecast window.

With our area lying on the southern periphery of an active northern
stream, sensible weather will manage some isolated to at times
scattered convection at just about any time through the period.
There will be a greater chance of rainfall early next week as a cold
frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late Monday,
or possibly Tuesday. This boundary stalls out and will tend to keep
any convection focused across the region through mid week. What`s
left of the boundary lifts northward Thursday, just as another
trough begins to drop into the region from the northwest by late
Thursday or Friday. The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined
with daily convection will help keep our high temperatures close to
normal for this time of the year, or possibly slightly cooler. But
overall our weather will remain quite muggy. Overnight lows will be
warm, running a little above normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

IFR fog was currently plaguing SYM while MVFR visibilities were in
place at SME. All sites should see at least MVFR conditions as
clearing works south across eastern Kentucky, with likely IFR
conditions lasting for a period at SYM and developing at SME.
Should see VFR conditions return by 12-13Z Saturday as low
clouds/moisture mix out. Best chance of seeing thunder will reside
at LOZ/SME by early Saturday afternoon. Will maintain VCTS for now
given sparse coverage currently expected, while negating mention
elsewhere for now. VFR conditions should persist through 06Z
Sunday as winds remain light near or below 5 knots.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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