Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 191103

National Weather Service Jackson KY
703 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Issued at 609 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Updated the forecast to remove the pre-first period and to freshen
up the hourly forecast grids with the latest obs data. The
forecast precipitation chances were left as is, as a cold front
will be moving across the area today, thereby leaving open the
possibility of new convection developing over the next several
hours. The threat for heavy rain continues to diminish, but a few
thunderstorms will still have the potential for producing
localized heavy rainfall through late this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

The latest model data has all been suggesting a much more
progressive pattern over the next 24 hours and less precipitation
overall than previously forecast. The latest radar imagery has
also clearly been showing a distinct downward trend in the
intensity and coverage of ongoing precipitation across eastern
Kentucky. Based on the overall trends, decided to adjust the
forecast accordingly, with a faster west to east progression of
ongoing convection and any new showers and storms that form later
this morning as a cold front pushes across the area. In general
the new forecast will have precipitation exiting eastern Kentucky
several hours earlier than the previous forecast. The potential
for heavy rainfall has decreased to the point that the flood watch
will be dropped with the 4 am forecast package. That being said, we
will continue to closely monitor the ongoing convection for signs
of intensification or cell training, especially along and north
of I-64 where heavy rainfall occurred yesterday evening. The last
lingering rain showers should be exiting eastern Kentucky between
2 and 3Z Tuesday. Warm and dry weather is then expected for
Tuesday across the area.

Temperatures will likely max out today at slightly cooler than
normal values in the upper 70s due to widespread cloud cover and
precipitation. A warming trend is on tap for Tuesday, with highs
forecast to max out in the lower 80s beneath mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Wednesday will continue the couple day dry stretch across eastern
Kentucky as high pressure begins to shift east across the
Appalachians. Trailing energy will ride southeast down the backside
of cyclonic flow extending from an upper low east of Hudson Bay
through the Great Lakes. Precipitation will remain north of eastern
Kentucky with this wave given the lack of southwesterly return flow
north of a stalled front parked from the Gulf Coast to the mid-
Atlantic. Rising heights sprawling eastward from the long-lived Four
Corners upper high will warm temperatures back into the mid 80s.

A more active period will ensue for Thursday through the weekend as
northern stream energy traverses lower Canada toward the Great
Lakes. Simultaneously, Invest 93L near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula will begin to make headway inland. This will send a plume
of tropical moisture into the Tennessee and likely Ohio Valleys. A
good deal of uncertainty exists with the timing and exact track of
this low pressure center as it transitions to an extratropical
cyclone. Nonetheless, interaction of this feature along with
northern stream energy and an associated cool front will spell
shower and thunderstorm chances from the end of the week through the
weekend prior to frontal passage. The threat for heavy rain and any
widespread flooding will have to be monitored through the week as
the tropical picture becomes clearer in the Gulf of Mexico. Near to
above normal temperatures look to be in the offing through at least
Saturday before arrival of the front brings a cooldown possibly as
early as Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

Updated the TAF grids and qued up the 12Z to go out at 1120Z this
morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move
across the area this morning, and will likely be affecting each of
the TAF sites through out the morning. MVFR to IFR conditions will
be possible at any given airport that is affect by a thunderstorm
or intense rain shower. Winds will be out of the southwest at
around 5 KTs this morning, and will shift to the west later today
after a cold front moves across the area. Locally heavy rainfall
will also be possible with any thunderstorm or intense shower, and
could cause visibility restrictions as well. The rain should
taper off steadily through out the day and should be out of
eastern Kentucky by 2 or 3Z tonight.




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