Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 200543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFINE SKY COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ALSO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS IN THE NEAR TERM PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH AN ONGOING 5 TO 10 DEGREE TEMP
SPLIT BETWEEN VALLEYS AND RIDGES AT THE MOMENT. ALSO SOME FOG HAS
DEVELOPED AT EKQ AND DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF FORECAST
WHICH DOES NOT PORTENT WELL FOR EVEN PATCHY FROST. THE UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BASICALLY CENTERED OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. ON SATELLITE...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN DRIFTING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A
DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPREAD INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST AND FOG. GIVEN THAT THE DEWPOINTS REMAINED RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S...FOG APPEARS TO BE THE
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIVERS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY FROST FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH MOST PLACES
WILL LIKELY END UP FROST FREE. THE FROST POTENTIAL IS MENTION IN THE
HWO BUT WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO GIVE IT A BIT MORE VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...JUST TWEAKED TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS. THE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS IS WHAT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A REX
BLOCK...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST...A BLOCKING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A CUT OFF LOW SOUTH
OF THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. CLOSER TO HOME...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH AND WILL BE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG
WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORT WAVE...SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR...AND
CLEAR SKIES...ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND SOME PATCHY
FROST TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND KEEPING
THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. THE TROUGH WILL EXIT LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR A
MODEST TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A
DRYER PERIOD ANTICIPATED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF AS A SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA...WITH
ANOTHER ONE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTH. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS
WAVE A BIT FARTHER EAST TODAY...SO HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK TO THE
EAST...KEEPING MUCH OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE TROUGH. WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF A SHOWER IN THE EAST AND
SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL CREEP EASTWARD...ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO START
TO BUILD BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT US OFF FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH...AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OFF AND
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND BY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL REALLY PUSH EAST BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE MODEST RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT LOOKS NOW...THIS RIDGE MAY PERSIST
FOR SOME TIME...KEEPING THE WEATHER DRY INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT AT SME AND LOZ...BUT VIS
SHOULDN/T GET ANY WORSE THAN MVFR FROM THIS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AND LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING THE LOWEST CLOUD DECK AROUND 3 TO 4K FEET WITH ONLY SCT CIGS
AT BEST. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






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