Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 030245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
POSSIBLE LIGHT SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN BORDER.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. STILL
HAVE SOME VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS MENTIONED IN THE FAR EAST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS JUST DUE TO MOST OF THE HI RES MODELS
POINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT...BUT OVERALL TREND IS FOR
LESSONING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS CANCELLED DURING THE 9PM HOUR GIVEN
THE LACK OF FURTHER CONCERNS. THE FFA/HWO/AND FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REMOVAL OF THE WATCH. OTHERWISE...UPDATED
THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM TO MAKE SURE
THEY WERE STILL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL CHANGES HAVE
BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO NDFD/WEB...THOUGH NO FURTHER FORECAST
PACKAGE UPDATE IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS
EASTERN KY...ALLOWING IT TO BOTH LIGHTEN UP AND EVEN DIMINISH IS
SOME AREAS. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER BASED ON THIS
LATEST TREND. WHILE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY STILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS EVENING...DID
LEAVE IN MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. OTHERWISE...BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA...WENT AHEAD AND
SHOWED A FASTER DIMINISHMENT OF THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WHAT RAIN WE DO HAVE
LEFT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT RESULT IN ANY FURTHER FLOODING
CONCERNS. WENT AHEAD AND RERAN ALL WEATHER GRIDS FROM NOW THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT TO SHOW COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING. ALSO... MADE SURE THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE REFLECTING
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. THIS RESULTED IN THE LOWERING OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS...AS RAIN HAS KEPT CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECASTED. ALL CHANGED HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
NDFD/WEB. A NEW FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT OUT AS WELL TO
REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 456 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS AS OF 21Z FEATURES A PERSISTENT STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE. WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED LEAVING
TRAILING STRATIFORM ACTIVITY OVER THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
BULK OF THE SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. WILL BE CANCELING
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. HOWEVER...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STILL PRESENT SO THE
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE PAST 00Z TONIGHT. THE OTHER FORECAST
ISSUE STEMS AROUND IF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR...THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. IF SHOWERS REMAIN PRESENT...THE
FOG THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE PUT FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.
THIA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY TODAY AND A WAVE RIDING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SOME SEVERE
CONVECTION AND SOME TRAINING STORMS OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
WELL SATURATED THE PAST 48 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY ON THE WANE
AFTER BEING WELL WORKED OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...THE SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE ENDING BY 00Z THIS
EVENING IF NOT BEFORE THEN. HAVE MENTIONED SOME LARGE HAIL
POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE ZFP AND HWO. HOWEVER...WITH
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA AND LOW CENTROID STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL LASTING INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HEADING INTO TONIGHT SUGGEST THE LAST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA WILL OCCUR BY 06Z AS
THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS PAST THE AREA AS WELL.
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A FEW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...IT APPEARS A VAGUE SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES. DESPITE THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...THE LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A ANOTHER DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MID DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LOW. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND OVERALL COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

RAIN HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW STRAY AREAS OF
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. FOG THAT INUNDATED THE TAF SITES EARLIER AS THE RAIN
CAME TO AN END HAS SINCE LIFTED...THOUGH A LOW CIG DECK HAS
CONTINUED AT MOST TAF SITES. AT THIS POINT...COULDN/T RULE OUT
SOME FURTHER FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...BUT BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS...EXPECT THIS TO BE MORE OF A LOW CIG EVENT. IFR TO LIFR
/OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS/ CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KJKL
WHERE IT IS ALREADY ONGOING. SOME VARIATION IN AND OUT OF THESE
CATEGORIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF JKL AND
SJS...THOUGH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW



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