Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 050712
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WSR-88D RADAR IS QUIET THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING A OVERNIGHT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SE CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER. OVERALL THIS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE AFFECT...BUT COULD STIFLE SOME AREAS FROM
COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. THIS COULD LIMIT THE FOG PRODUCTION IN
SPOTS THIS MORNING...BUT STILL THINK PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG WILL CLEAR
OUT AFTER SUNRISE AND WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER WARM
AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

ALSO GIVEN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WOULD ONCE AGAIN EXPECT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RIGHT NOW KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER...WHERE TOPO SHOULD HELP WITH FIRING OFF
STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CAMS HINTING AT THIS AREA
ON BOTH THE SSEO AND WRF-ARW ENSEMBLES. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE DO THESE STORMS DRIFT AND WHERE DO THE OUTFLOWS MOVE.
YESTERDAY THIS WAS A KEY COMPONENT TO THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF
THESE STORMS PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING...SINCE WE HAVE NOT
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR LIFTING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
MORE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THIS THIS WILL HAVE TO BE LOOKED AT
CLOSER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY IN THE VALLEYS. FOG COULD BE MORE
DENSE IN THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO SEE RAINFALL.

SUNDAY DID OPT TO PUT A ISOLATED POP ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER
LOCATIONS AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. OVERALL
THINKING MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE. TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DID DEVELOP THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
DIED OFF. STILL HAVE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT...HOWEVER LITTLE WIND HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THIS
IN THIS OVERNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR...BUT
GIVEN PERSISTENCE WOULD EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. RESTRICTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR TO
IFR BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE. MORE AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NEAR THE TN/VA BORDER. THEREFORE KEPT WITH VCTS AT ALL
THE SITES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALSO ADDED FOG TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PERSISTENCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT IF A STORM HITS A TAF SITE COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ



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