Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 301444

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1044 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Issued at 1044 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

WSR-88D radar shows much of the rain shower activity has exited
the CWA into the SW VA region. Mesoanalysis shows weak PVA
residing across portions of northern KY, and this will combine
with warm airmass and weak boundary along the Ohio River to bring
scattered showers and storms this afternoon. The CAMS suggest this
activity will be more prevalent in the northern half of the CWA,
so kept pops slightly higher as you move toward to Mountain
Parkway and I-64 area. Updated grids to reflect latest thoughts
and obs/trends.

UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent radar and
observation trends. This led to slightly higher pops near the VA
border over the next couple of hours. A relative lull in activity
is anticipated late this morning into the early afternoon before
daytime heating and the next approaching shortwave should combine
with the moist airmass in place to bring scattered redevelopment.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

Early this morning, the area was under the influence of broad
troughing in between ridging form the Eastern Gulf of Mexico
northeast into the Atlantic and another ridge over the Desert
Southwest. The westerlies are a bit stronger than earlier in the
week with periodic shortwaves passing through the flow. The
atmosphere remains more moist than climatology for late July. PW
is currently analyzed near 1.75 inches on average across Eastern
KY with the highest values nearer to the OH River from Northern KY
east into the mid OH Valley region.

The region is generally expected to remain under the influence of
the trough through the period although heights will begin to rise
a bit by Sunday as ridging builds into the Southeastern states.
Although convection cannot be ruled out at any time given the
moist airmass in place with weak shortwaves passing by from time
to time, convection is expected to peak diurnally each afternoon
and evening both today and on Sunday. Scattered coverage is
expected during both periods, with the higher chances today and a
bit lower chances on Sunday as moisture will not be as deep,
atmosphere a bit more stable, and rising heights will be less
favorable for development.

PW is progged to remain near 1.75 inches on average today across
Eastern and south Central KY and may be a tad higher at times and
this combined with shortwaves rotating through the OH Valley and
the nearly stalled out boundary from SW OH southwest near the OH
River, an isolated location or two might experience training of
storms or multiple stronger storms. Shear is a bit stronger than
earlier in the week and PW is not as high, however, if or where
any training or a location experiences a couple of stronger
storms, locally heavy rain and the threat of high water issues
would ensure given that most of the area has been on the wet side
since mid week. PW is progged to decrease this evening and remain
nearer to 1.5 inches on Sunday. Thus, the threat of locally heavy
rain should decrease a bit to end the weekend.

With the trough in place, and considerable cloud cover from time
to time, diurnal ranges will be on the limited side. Temperatures
will average near normal for the end of July through the short
term period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

The extended period will feature a chance of showers and storms to
begin the period, a short lived dry period from late Monday night
through late Tuesday night, and off and on showers and storms from
Wednesday through the end of the week. A meandering frontal boundary
will provide the necessary lift to spark showers and storms during
the period. Daily highs are expected to max out in the mid to upper
80s, with nightly lows in the mid to upper 60s across the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)

Lingering fog and/or low clouds should begin to lift and
dissipate by 14Z to 15Z. Prevailing MVFR CIGS should improve
through the MVFR range to the VFR range by about 18Z. Isolated to
scattered convection should then ensue, but wane by 23Z. Due to
uncertainty in timing and location, VCTS continues to be used for
a few hours at all locations. Depending on the extent of any
clearing during around or after 6Z, MVFR or possibly lower fog
could become a concern by the end of the period.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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