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000
FXUS63 KJKL 201847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
247 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS/MO VALLEY REGION AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO
ITS SOUTH APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON WED. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD TRANSPORT RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION WITH PW FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KY LATER ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. MODELS BRING
SOME INCREASING WINDS ALOFT INTO THE AREA AT THAT POINT...THOUGH THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
WORK SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...THE LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
EASTERN KY ON THU.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR A TIME ON TUE NIGHT
BETWEEN RATHER DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONFECTION FROM TUE AND RESURGENCE
LIKELY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG WITH TIMING OF MODELS BRINGING PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION INTO EASTERN KY POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THOUGH THE NORTH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET CORE AS HIGHLIGHTED BY
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME OF
THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR WED IN THE HWO.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR WED IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
MOS GUIDANCE. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TOO WARM UNLESS
THERE ENDS UP BEING LITTLE CLOUD COVER ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS WERE
TRENDED LOWER TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS/MET GUIDANCE.

POPS WERE CONTINUED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENDED MODELS
APPEAR TO BE A IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...LATER IN THE PERIOD THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT INTO SUN WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
GRID LOAD MODEL CONSENSUS HAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUN
AND THIS WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU AND SC IS ACROSS THE AREA. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
QUITE VARIABLE RANGING FROM SCT TO OVC...WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 3K FEET TO AROUND 5K FEET. CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS ALSO SCATTERING
OUT LATE. AS SUCH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH
LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH