Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 171345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
945 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY.
ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
TODAY PERIOD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE UPDATE BLENDED OBSERVED EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
RESULTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WX DAY TO THE
REGION. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LACKING...SO NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FAR SE CONUS AND LEAD
TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THERE. LOCALLY...TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING...BUT STILL MAY DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
CHANGE WHICH ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREEING WITH IS TO SLOW DOWN
STORM SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TO BAD WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WEEKEND WILL
BE GORGEOUS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...PRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDER. IN FACT...THE OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE AWFULLY WEAK...SO
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT MAY BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT LOOKED
YESTERDAY. STRONG RIDGING WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH MILD
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL






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