Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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683
FXUS63 KJKL 300636
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

BLENDED LATE NIGHT OBS INTO THE FORECAST...AND STARTED TO
INCORPORATE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS FOR WIND AND SKY COVER. FULL UPDATE
WILL FOLLOW A BIT LATER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED MAINLY
TO TWEAK POPS AND T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PUSHING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO
VALLEY. THE REMAINS OF AN EARLIER MCS IS FADING OUT THROUGH
CENTRAL TENNESSEE AS THE CORE OF IT SETTLES INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
THE LOW AND MIDDLE 70S SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST. HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THIS CLUSTER HAVE OVERSPREAD EAST KENTUCKY AND SHOULD
HELP MAKE FOR RATHER UNIFORM TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
STATE. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND ALONG WITH
ADDING IN THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE FOR T/TD/WIND AS WELL AS
THE CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS. IN ADDITION...A FRESH SET OF ZONES AND AN UPDATED HWO
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE NEAR TERM.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WILL EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL HAVE WEAKENED QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE...BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO OUR
AREA AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE MCS WILL THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARDS US FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF ADDITION RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH OUT THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT
IS THEN FORECAST TO NEARLY STALL OVER THE REGION...BRINGING
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL YET AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND AROUND 60 TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 525 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN
AS TWIN UPPER LOWS OPEN UP AND SLIP EAST. THE FIRST OF THESE
MOVES BY KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE ENERGY OF
THE NEXT ONE CATCHES UP AND PRESSES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE AS THE PATTERN GRADUALLY
EVOLVES INTO ONE FEATURING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. THE GFS
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...CANADIAN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE NET RESULT WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH KENTUCKY...OR JUST TO THE NORTH. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER KENTUCKY WITH
BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AT MIDWEEK. FOR THE END OF THE
FORECAST...THE ECMWF STARTS TO CARVE OUT A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE GFS IS MORE EASTERLY WITH ITS OPEN
TROUGH...INSTEAD FOCUSING ON ITS LOW ANOMALY NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF PATTERN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR SO HAVE FAVORED ITS SOLUTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE INSTABILITY
WANES WITH FROPA. DURING PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY EAST KENTUCKY
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN OHIO. THIS
ALONG WITH A GOOD WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THIS CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO AND WX STORY. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE ON PAST THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS TO START THE WORK WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LINGER IN THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION POSSIBLE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. FOR
THE MOST PART IT APPEARS THAT EAST KENTUCKY WILL THEN BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
LIMITING THE INSTABILITY AND WITH OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES
BRINGING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD BE RATHER CHILLY TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK WITH LOWER 40S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

MADE ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGH AND LOWS FROM
THE CR INIT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RESULTANT
LACK OF A RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE. DID ALSO MAKE SOME FINE
TUNE TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...
MAINLY TO HEDGE TOWARD THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION AND WETTER THAN
WHAT THE GFS SUGGESTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. UP UNTIL SHOWERS
BECOME PREVALENT...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR. A
DETERIORATION TO GENERALLY MVFR IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
IN REALITY...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL



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