Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250722
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
322 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

High pressure will remain on control of the weather through the
short term. A mid to upper level ridge is centered over the
southeastern CONUS this morning, spreading its influence across
Eastern Kentucky. Mid and upper level drying is also apparent in
current WV/IR imagery moving across our region. Given the
anticyclonic upper level flow, the ongoing convection across the
Ohio Valley should stay to our north and east as it rotates around
the high this morning. Models hint at some shower activity perhaps
grazing our northeastern counties (from the ongoing convection) during
the morning hours as well as some terrain-induced showers/storms
along the Virginia border in the afternoon. However, with most of
the column staying dry, the shower activity shouldn`t amount to
much today. The best chance, if any, will be over the high terrain
in western Virginia.

High pressure becomes centered over Eastern Kentucky late tonight
and remains over us through Friday. This will likely keep any
shower activity out of the area and have adjusted pops to reflect
this.

Today and Friday will be muggy and warm with highs in the upper
80s/low 90s. During the afternoon hours, heat indices are expected
to reach the mid and upper 90s so take precaution if spending time
outdoors. Tonight will also be unseasonably warm with lows
staying in the low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

A stout upper level ridge will dominate our weather into early
next week. This will keep temperatures much warmer than normal
and muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Isolated
showers/storms will be possible each day over the weekend into
early next week in the warm and humid airmass. It appears the
ridge will weaken slightly by the end of the period, possibly
allowing a cold front to sag into the region. The front appears
very weak in the models so will keep PoPs low and diurnally
influenced even during these periods. Models keep any influences
from a potential tropical system developing in the Caribbean to
our south and east through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as an upper level
ridge holds steady across Kentucky. There may be some valley fog
development later this morning. However, with crossover
temperatures in the 60s, do not think that much fog will make it
into the TAF sites. There is the potential for some brief MVFR fog
at either LOZ or SME but decided not to include it at this time
given lower confidence. There may also be some isolated showers
or thunderstorms in the north and east later this morning but do
not expect any activity to affect the TAF sites. Winds will remain
variable around 5 knots or less through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM



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