Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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034
FXUS63 KJKL 290755
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Scattered showers continue to progress eastward through far East
Kentucky this morning, well behind the cold frontal boundary that
has already exited to the southeast. The deep upper level low that
provided us with this showers is currently over southern Indiana
and is expected to push into central Kentucky today. With the low
centered over our forecast area, skies will remain mostly overcast
throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the lower
60s. With upper level dynamics in place, showers and a slight
chance of thunder will once again be possible today, peaking in
the afternoon hours. Though, most high-res models keep the best
chance for rain/storms in the far east and over West Virginia.
Depending on how the upper low pivots across the area, along with
the position the upper level jet, this certainly seems possible.
Instability wanes tonight, and models agree on a dry slot wrapping
around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up
by dawn on Friday. The upper low is then progged to wobble a bit
northwest throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot works
further into our area. High temperatures should rebound slightly
into the upper 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon as long as the dry
slot comes to fruition and skies clear up a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

The models remain in general agreement with an amplified long
wave pattern to continue through the period. The Ohio Valley
upper level low will gradually wobble its way back towards the
Great Lakes, and eventually get absorbed into the Westerlies by
early next week. Meanwhile, a deeper trough will be swinging
through the western CONUS, sharpening up a ridge across the middle
of the CONUS. This trough will move east into the Plains by the
middle of next week, slowly shoving the ridge east of the
Mississippi River. Model differences in timing and amplitude
remain; however, there is general agreement on a slower trend to
the pattern evolution by the middle of next week.

A few more showers will continue to be in the vicinity of eastern
Kentucky through Saturday night, as the upper low slowly pulls
away to the north. Generally dry weather can then be expected
through the rest of the period, as we come under the influence of
the ridge axis moving in from the west. Temperatures will be
modifying through the period. Highs to start the weekend will be
in the low to mid 70s, before reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

A scattered line of showers continues to push eastward through
far eastern Kentucky this morning. Behind this line, CIGS have
generally shown a downward trend and models have picked up on
this. So have decided to take CIGS/VIS down to IFR/LIFR during
the early morning period and then slowly recover them during the
morning and afternoon hours. Confidence isn`t particularly high
regarding the CIGS or the dense fog potential so sticking close to
LAV guidance at this time. VCSH is possible this afternoon as the
upper level system resides right over top of the region. Depending
on the amount of low level moisture tonight and afternoon shower
activity, fog will be possible again towards the end of the TAF
period. Winds will be light and variable throughout the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM



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