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000
FXUS63 KJKL 141445
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED NDFD FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBS. OVERALL..THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS VALLEY FOG CONTINUES TO LIFT AND IT SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TODAY AND CONTINUES TO USHER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
NOTHING MORE THAN FAIR WEATHER CU IS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOSING INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON THU NOW OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME FLATTER
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL GETS LIFTED NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND THE SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDS
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGING POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY.

OVERALL...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES A
BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. VALLEY FOG COULD INITIALLY BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO PAST DAWN. MOISTURE NEAR 800 MB SHOULD LEAD TO
A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAT SHOULD WANE BY EVENING. RIVER VALLEY
FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT IS OCCURRING ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
TAKING PLACE THEREAFTER. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ONCE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A MORE DECISIVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...EXITING THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ANOTHER REPRIEVE FROM THE HUMIDITY FOR A FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND WILL BRING MAINLY
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE VALLEY FOG LIFTING
INITIALLY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS
AFTER 6Z. THE REMAINING INITIAL VALLEY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY
13Z...WITH VFR TODAY OTHER THAN A SCT-BKN CU FIELD BETWEEN ABOUT 15Z
AND 23Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP