Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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078
FXUS63 KJKL 191107
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
707 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WE REMAIN IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AS A RESULT WSR-88D
RADAR IS PICKING UP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE VA BORDER THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SPOTS ARE SEEING SOME FOG STILL THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WANE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE DAY.
MADE MINOR UPDATES TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT ON IR SAT
THIS MORNING...WHERE CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEING
USHERED INTO THOSE AREAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS MORNING BASED OF WSR-88D RADAR. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S THIS MORNING...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED INTO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS AIR MASS COUPLED WITH
LIGHT TO NO WINDS AND AREAS THAT SAW RAIN YESTERDAY ADDING TO THE
MOIST AIR MASS HAS FOSTERED AREAS OF FOG...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS
SEEING DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
GENERALLY AFTER 13Z...AS FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SUN RISES.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY...AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND
COOLER/DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH REASONABLE
RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES. ALSO GIVEN CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS WE MAY ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY MAINLY RIVER VALLEY
FOG. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE WILL BREAKDOWN
AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS WILL KEEP MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

A PIECE OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD AT MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST IT WILL GET PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AROUND THE
DEEPENING TROUGH. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF AND NAM
GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP IN OUR AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY. WITHOUT A CLEAR
PREFERENCE...HAVE CONTINUED TO INCLUDE LOW POPS.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS AGREE
ON A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH
A REINFORCING PUSH OF DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND.

LATE IN THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS...TURNING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SE CONUS RIDGE AND A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
PRECLUDING HIGHER POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

SITES ARE STARTING OFF IFR TO LIFR THIS MORNING DUE TO FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF A APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IR/WV SAT AND OBS
INDICATE DRIER AND AT MOST HIGH CLOUDS INCHING CLOSER TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. TRIED TO TIME THIS OUT WITH MOST SITES
EXPECTED TO GO TOWARD VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WE
COULD SEE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
RIGHT NOW THINK THIS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR ON THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ



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