Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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904
FXUS63 KJKL 252008
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
408 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 408 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

An upper level low pressure system continues to shift NE of Kentucky
this afternoon, pulling with it the surface low which is currently
located over north-central Ohio. Moisture from this system has
impacted much of eastern KY today with widespread stratiform rain.
However, as the system continues to shift NE of the region, this
rain will continue to move east and taper off throughout the
afternoon/evening. With no instability to work with, continued with
no thunder in the forecast during this time.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will work in overnight
tonight, but llvl moisture may linger a bit in the form of low
clouds, eventually breaking up by daybreak Friday in many locations.
A warm front moving in to our north will likely keep cloud cover
in place across the NE CWA. According to the latest soundings,
this llvl cloud cover should be enough to prevent fog in most
locations, though can`t rule out some isolated valley occurrences.

During the day Friday, another surface low pressure system will be
located over the Southern Plains tracking NE into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. This will send a warm front eastward into
Kentucky during the day Friday into Friday night, with the return of
southerly winds pulling moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures will shoot up to near 80 by Friday afternoon, compared
to our 60 degrees today. Precipitation will also start moving in
along the Ohio River Friday night, before spreading into our region
during the day Friday. This could bring some pops into our northern
CWA to round out the short term portion of the forecast. However,
after looking at the latest NAM12 forecast soundings, all moisture
should be confined to a fairly shallow layer in the llvls, with a
very strong inversion located just above followed by dry air aloft.
In such a setting, there is nothing to support convection, so kept
with only rain mention in the grids during the overnight. Southerly
flow will also help keep overnight temps from bottoming out Friday
night/Saturday morning, only falling to the low to mid 60s.

&&


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Cyclonic flow will remain locked in place from the southern shores
of Hudson Bay into the Tennessee Valley from this weekend well into
next week, as upper ridging traverses the Gulf Coast into the
western Atlantic and split flow sets up across the western U.S. Net
impact for eastern Kentucky will be an unsettled pattern
characterized by periods of showers and thunderstorms along with
seasonable temperatures, beginning the weekend above normal and
falling to near or slightly below normal by mid next week.

Quasi-zonal flow Friday night will back southwesterly Saturday as an
upper low migrates into Manitoba, sending several upper impulses
downstream as far south as the Volunteer State. Isolated showers and
storms will develop Friday evening and night, with scattered storms
occurring throughout the day Saturday. These should remain rather
low-topped as height falls and deep layer shear will be weak along
with their primary forcing being driven aloft as an earlier day warm
front should be well north of eastern Kentucky by peak heating. More
widespread convection will materialize into Sunday as the upper low
moves east toward the western Great Lakes and an attendant surface
low slides across the upper Ohio Valley toward the lower Great
Lakes. An approaching cold front will serve as focus for
thunderstorm development through the day into Monday morning. Will
have to monitor progression of the boundary for flooding potential
Sunday, before a damaging wind threat likely materializes later in
the afternoon into the night. This widespread precipitation will
knock a few degrees off of temperatures when compared with readings
in the low 80s Saturday, as Sunday`s highs top out in the upper 70s.

Rain chances will diminish from west to east Monday behind the
front, with another round of storms possible Tuesday ahead of a
secondary upper wave and front. Dry conditions should return for a
portion of midweek before another round of showers looks possible
thereafter on the western edge of the slowly eastward meandering
upper low. This feature should keep temperatures in check with highs
near the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

As an area of low pressure rotates just to our north, rain
continues across all TAF sites this afternoon. Expect this rain to
eventually come to an end first in the SW (SME and KLOZ) just
before 0Z, and then to the other TAF sites in the few hours
following. CIGS and VIS will remain borderline IFR to MVFR up
until this point. After rain clears out, CIGS will increase a
bit, though may still remain MVFR throughout the night. Latest
forecast soundings are not supporting much in the way of fog with
the thick clouds in place. Skies will slowly start to break up
into the day tomorrow, with generally SCT MVFR to low end VFR
cigs. Winds will be gusty today near the center of the low,
generally from the SW. Winds will lesson to generally less than 10
knots overnight, and then to less than 7 knots by during the day
Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...JMW



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