Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Visibilities remain quite poor this morning across the area, and
that means no change to the dense fog advisory. Forecast remains
on track, so will just freshen up the hourly grids for this
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Fog has continued to expand this morning and given the trend,
opted for a dense fog advisory. The fog will likely develop into a
stratus layer before breaking up by midday. This suggest we could
see temperatures warm at a slightly slower pace then the past few
days. Still think we should see highs top out in the low to mid
80s despite the slow start. As far as precipitation chances go
today, the main wave has shifted east of the area with the trough
axis sitting over West Virginia. Hi-res models continue to show
most of the development today staying to our east, but did leave
isolated showers in the forecast in the far east as a few showers
could graze these areas. Otherwise, a dry day is anticipated.

Skies will clear off again tonight, setting up another night of
dense valley fog. With a dry day preceding it, fog should not be
quite as widespread, so will only include a mention in the HWO at
this time. The trough axis to the west will weaken and drop
southeast across eastern Kentucky on Thursday. The flow will turn
out of the northeast, pumping in slightly drier air. Despite this,
models show some potential to pop a few showers along the high
terrain in southeast kentucky during the afternoon. Thus, will
include isolated showers in the forecast for far southeast and
south Kentucky. Instability is fairly meager and with heights
building through the day, thunder chances do not look good. Highs
on Thursday will remain mild with readings again into the low to
mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

The models remain in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to rule across the CONUS. Troughing will control across
the West, while ridging will be found in the East. The ridge will
initially be a larger bubble of high pressure centered across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, which will control through
the weekend. By early next week, the combination of the tropical
influence from the western Atlantic, as well as an eastward push
from the trough out west will weaken this ridge. By next Tuesday,
a subtropical high will then build back in across the Gulf of
Mexico, with a ridge axis nosing back in across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys.

The resultant weather across eastern Kentucky will be dry, with
mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures. Highs will
average in the mid 80s. Lows will average in the lower 60s through
the weekend, before some of the valleys cool off into the upper
50s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Dense fog will slowly lift into a stratus layer this morning
before burning off by midday. This will keep IFR/LIFR conditions
in place through 10 am, before a return to MVFR and eventually VFR
by this afternoon. Additional dense fog is expected to develop
across the area tonight, beginning late this evening. The fog is
again expected to impact all the TAF sites, creeping onto the
ridges late in the night as the fog layer begins to lift. Light
winds are expected through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS



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