Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161838 CCA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
138 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

Issued at 137 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Rain is beginning to taper off across our northern counties and
that trend will continue to work southward into the rest of the
afternoon. After chatting with surrounding offices, thought it was
prudent to go ahead and pump out a flood watch for southeast
Kentucky on Saturday. Models are supporting upwards of an inch
along the Virginia state line, and with ground already very
saturated, won`t take much to cause some local high water issues.

UPDATE Issued at 955 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

Widespread rain will continue through the day. Cold front is now
pushing towards the Jackson area and will eventually move into the
rest of southeast Kentucky in the next few hours. Some gusty winds
up to 35 mph have been noted immediately behind this front, so a
brief period of stronger winds may be seen this morning. Rain
should slowly wind down from north to south between 2 and 6 pm

UPDATE Issued at 655 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

The forecast was in pretty good shape this morning. A few
adjustments were made to the timing of precip this morning, and
the latest obs were ingested into the forecast grids to establish
new trends. Ongoing rain showers will likely have overspread the
entire area by 13 or 14Z this morning and will not being to taper
off until this afternoon. No update to the zone forecast text
product is scheduled at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

The near term period will be quite active, as a series of weather
systems brings periods of rain, and a bit of snow, to eastern
Kentucky today and into the weekend. Numerous light to moderate
rain showers will be moving across the area through the end of the
day today, as a cold front moves across the region. The rain will
be most widespread through out the morning, and will quickly taper
off this afternoon. The rain should be out of eastern Kentucky by
early tonight. Colder air will spill into the area tonight behind
the departed cold front. We can expect a break from precipitation
tonight, as a weak area of high pressure moves quickly across the
region. A second bout of precipitation is then expected to affect
the area during the day on Saturday. The leading edge of this
precipitation should begin moving into eastern Kentucky from the
south or southwest early Saturday morning, in advance of an area
of low pressure that will be moving across the Tennessee valley.
Some snow, or a rain snow mix, will be possible on the northern
edge of the advancing precipitation, as it moves into colder air
Saturday morning. The precipitation should transition to all rain
by early Saturday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations for both
systems combined should average around an inch for most locations.
Localized flooding will be possible today and again tomorrow, as
any rain we see will be falling on already saturated ground.

Temperatures are expected to be well above normal again today,
with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s forecast for most
locations. Overnight lows will be cooler than we have seen the
past two nights, but still a bit above normal. Low temperatures
tonight and early Saturday morning should fall into the upper 20s
in the far north and the low to mid 30s on average south of the
I-64 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 446 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

A southern stream of the upper level flow will persist from the
eastern Pacific west of Mexico across the southeast CONUS.
Impulses in the flow will bring additional incursions of deep
moisture northward, interacting with northern stream flow. One of
these episode will be on the way out on Saturday night, with any
lingering precip ending, and surface high pressure building in
from the west and then passing over late Saturday night and
Sunday with mainly dry weather. The next surge of moisture will
move through Sunday night and Monday, coinciding with an
amplifying upper level pattern with a western CONUS trough and a
summer-like ridge off the southeast coast. As the ridge builds,
moisture/precip should become concentrated to our north and west
along a frontal boundary associated with the trough, and we will
emerge into an unseasonably warm air mass until mid week. A piece
of the trough will move east and flatten the ridge, allowing the
surface boundary to move southeast through our area as a cold
front with another round of wet weather. Models still need to come
into better agreement on timing of the front and precip. At this
time the forecast is a broadbrushed picture of this on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Model forecast soundings show weak
instability developing along the front at midweek, and a slight
chance of thunder has been included.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

Rain will gradually taper off into this afternoon, but MVFR cigs
will continue to impact the area through tonight. Another round of
rain will spread into the area on Saturday with cigs possibly
lowering down to IFR for a period of time Saturday into Saturday
night. Northwest winds will gradually diminish into this evening
with southerly winds developing on Saturday with the arrival of
the rain.


Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for



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