Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251658
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED AND SLOWED DOWN OUR TEMPERATURE RISE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL LOWER HIGHS A BIT
BACK TO MORE AROUND 80 TODAY. INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS MEAGER AS
INDICATED FROM THE RATHER FLAT CU OUT THE WINDOW AT THE MOMENT.
THUS...NO PLANS TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1124 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S AREAWIDE...ON
THEIR WAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S TODAY. OVERALL FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO LOWER DEWPOINTS A BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME FAIRLY GOOD MIXING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT BAY AS RH DROPS BELOW 35 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

STOUT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW RIDGE
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S WHILE MOST VALLEYS SIT IN THE 40S.
NOT SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG AS CLOUD DECKS AT 6000
FEET AND 20000-25000 FEET MOVE OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

FINALLY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME CIRRUS PUSH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
COURTESY OF A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. CORRESPONDING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TODAY AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVECTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...THUS ALLOWING DAYTIME
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW-MID 80S TODAY. SURFACE HEATING WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BUILDING CUMULUS FIELD
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A RATHER STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TYPE CAP
WILL HOLD STRONG NEAR OR JUST BELOW H70...THEREFORE LIKELY
LIMITING UPWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO DEVELOP ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LACK OF FORCING WILL BE ANOTHER
ISSUE...EVEN IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN RETURN...IN
DEVELOPING MORE THAN FLAT CUMULUS. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIST NEAR THE TENNESSEE STATE
LINE ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING AND QUESTIONABLE ADEQUATE MOISTURE RECOVERY
BY PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN AND THE GREAT LAKES...WILL MAKE HEADWAY SOUTH TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS UPPER ENERGY FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED
SYSTEM GETS ABSORBED INTO BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE KEY
DRIVER OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE ALONG WITH SAID TRIGGER LOOK PLENTY SUFFICE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT MEAGER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KNOTS
AT THE MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPING
STORM CORES TO ORGANIZE AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
NONETHELESS...SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE IN THE OFFING IN A WEAKLY CAPPED
MID-LATE AFTERNOON ENVIRONMENT. CURRENT THINKING IS BETTER STORM
COVERAGE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LATTER AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AS
UNUSUALLY DEEP VERTICAL MIXING TAKES PLACE TODAY...THEREFORE
KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
A LONGER DURATION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WITH STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING
MUCH MORE THAN SMALL HAIL GIVEN LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND
LONGEVITY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT CAN SURGE DURING
THE DAY...COULD SEE SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF COLD POOL
PROCESSES DO NOT QUICKLY OVERWHELM REMAINING BUOYANCY INTO THE
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY RIPPLES IN THE 500MB LAYER. RIGHT NOW KEEP OVERALL BETTER
CHANCES OF POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA GIVEN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A LULL PERIOD EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MOVES NE AND
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AS MORE OF A WARM FRONT. THEN COLD FRONT IN
THE PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW DO BRING AT LEAST
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THIS REMAINS
THE OVERALL BETTER CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THEN REDUCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...AS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BRIEFLY FLATTENS OUT AND FRONT TRACKS EAST. THAT SAID
FRIDAY STANDS TO BE THE DRY DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...GIVEN
THAT THE FRONT SLIDES EAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOSES EAST.
THEN AFTER THE DRY PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH INITIAL OVERRUNNING POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY...RIGHT NOW
LEFT THUNDER OUT GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY. WHILE LIMITED A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE WEEKEND AND THEREFORE INTRODUCE THUNDER AGAIN BY SUNDAY

OVERALL SEVERE WX POTENTIAL LOOKS MARGINAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT THIS TIME. ONE ISSUE IS THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE BETTER
WAVES ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD SEVERE. ALSO BETTER FORCING
RIDES NORTH EACH TIME THEREFORE BECOMING A LIMITING FACTOR. THIS
SEEMS TO BE BACKED UP BY THE CIPS ANALOG AND SPC MARS WHICH HAVE
LITTLE IF ANY SIGNAL THROUGH THURSDAY FOR EASTERN KY.

NOW TEMP WISE LOOKS LIKE WE REMAIN IN A WARM PATTERN. LOW TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWERS 60S...WHILE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE UPPER 40S. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S AND THIS TIME OF YEAR AVERAGE HIGHS TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS



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