Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 191824 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
224 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Issued at 223 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Freshened up the POPs through the afternoon. Only some isolated
activity is now occurring across the far southeast, with the cold
front slipping further away into Tennessee. A few weak echoes have
also popped up north of I-64, and have included a small window of
isolated showers through this afternoon. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1110 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Deeper moisture is pushing southeast, with the last of the more
intense rain showers exiting far eastern Kentucky in the next
hour. The latest HRRR shows a bit more shower activity lingering
closer to the surface cold front, which is near the TN/KY border
through this afternoon, but more scattered in areal coverage.
Thunder chances also look low at this point with the exit of the
front, so have removed these through the rest of the day. The
upper level trough axis will swing through the Ohio Valley through
this afternoon, with perhaps a few showers popping up near and
north of the Ohio River. Temperatures still look to eventually
recover to the upper 70s, to around 80 degrees. Updates have been

UPDATE Issued at 609 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Updated the forecast to remove the pre-first period and to freshen
up the hourly forecast grids with the latest obs data. The
forecast precipitation chances were left as is, as a cold front
will be moving across the area today, thereby leaving open the
possibility of new convection developing over the next several
hours. The threat for heavy rain continues to diminish, but a few
thunderstorms will still have the potential for producing
localized heavy rainfall through late this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

The latest model data has all been suggesting a much more
progressive pattern over the next 24 hours and less precipitation
overall than previously forecast. The latest radar imagery has
also clearly been showing a distinct downward trend in the
intensity and coverage of ongoing precipitation across eastern
Kentucky. Based on the overall trends, decided to adjust the
forecast accordingly, with a faster west to east progression of
ongoing convection and any new showers and storms that form later
this morning as a cold front pushes across the area. In general
the new forecast will have precipitation exiting eastern Kentucky
several hours earlier than the previous forecast. The potential
for heavy rainfall has decreased to the point that the flood watch
will be dropped with the 4 am forecast package. That being said, we
will continue to closely monitor the ongoing convection for signs
of intensification or cell training, especially along and north
of I-64 where heavy rainfall occurred yesterday evening. The last
lingering rain showers should be exiting eastern Kentucky between
2 and 3Z Tuesday. Warm and dry weather is then expected for
Tuesday across the area.

Temperatures will likely max out today at slightly cooler than
normal values in the upper 70s due to widespread cloud cover and
precipitation. A warming trend is on tap for Tuesday, with highs
forecast to max out in the lower 80s beneath mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

Wednesday will continue the couple day dry stretch across eastern
Kentucky as high pressure begins to shift east across the
Appalachians. Trailing energy will ride southeast down the backside
of cyclonic flow extending from an upper low east of Hudson Bay
through the Great Lakes. Precipitation will remain north of eastern
Kentucky with this wave given the lack of southwesterly return flow
north of a stalled front parked from the Gulf Coast to the mid-
Atlantic. Rising heights sprawling eastward from the long-lived Four
Corners upper high will warm temperatures back into the mid 80s.

A more active period will ensue for Thursday through the weekend as
northern stream energy traverses lower Canada toward the Great
Lakes. Simultaneously, Invest 93L near the east coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula will begin to make headway inland. This will send a plume
of tropical moisture into the Tennessee and likely Ohio Valleys. A
good deal of uncertainty exists with the timing and exact track of
this low pressure center as it transitions to an extratropical
cyclone. Nonetheless, interaction of this feature along with
northern stream energy and an associated cool front will spell
shower and thunderstorm chances from the end of the week through the
weekend prior to frontal passage. The threat for heavy rain and any
widespread flooding will have to be monitored through the week as
the tropical picture becomes clearer in the Gulf of Mexico. Near to
above normal temperatures look to be in the offing through at least
Saturday before arrival of the front brings a cooldown possibly as
early as Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Scattered to broken cumulus generally ranging from 3-5k feet agl
will continue across the area through late this afternoon, before
dissipating into this evening. A few isolated showers may also dot
the area near and north of I-64, as well as far southeastern
Kentucky. High pressure will build in tonight, and with west winds
going calm, some fog is expected. Some of the low level moisture
is mixing out this afternoon, so have not included anything more
than IFR/MVFR fog at SME...LOZ...and SJS towards dawn Tuesday
morning for now. Once the fog burns off by 13z or so, some
scattered cumulus at 6-7k feet agl will likely develop by noon.




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