Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAVES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. A WESTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE WHAT BRINGS US OUR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR LIMITED...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE OF THE
GARDEN VARIETY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY...IF NOT SOONER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED BY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 TONIGHT...AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE
OF AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
BE UNDER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH JUST LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT SET
UP WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS FARTHER NORTH. EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAVE
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
LACK OF FORCING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO. WITH
THIS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEM TO FEATURE A DIURNAL LIKE TREND
WITH THE MAX CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
AND LIKELY JUST MARGINAL OR STRONG STORMS AT THE VERY MOST
EXPECTED. AS WELL...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS WITH
PREVIOUS STORMS WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE ALREADY LACK OF
INSTABILITY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ANY CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THIS...WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED.

MODELS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED BUT THE GFS DRIES OUT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WITH THE EURO KEEP PRECIP AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS WAS DISPLAYED AS WELL WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY KEEPING PRECIP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE AIRPORTS AROUND EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDING MVFR
CONDITIONS...THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD. DURING TIMES WHEN NO
SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE AFFECTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD THROUGH AROUND 10Z ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN GENERAL...WITH STRONGER GUSTIER WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



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