Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220229 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1029 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Issued at 1029 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

The valleys have dropped off into the low to mid 60s as of 10 pm.
These values are similar compared to last night at that time. The
forecast is on track, so mainly adjusted the diurnal drop off over
the next few hours to incorporate the latest trends in
observations. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

The surface high pressure center is a bit further east into New
England than it was 24 hours ago. Dry air mixed down late this
afternoon, and despite highs in the mid to upper 80s across
eastern Kentucky, think that valley minimum temperatures will
still mainly be below the 60 degree mark once again, especially
since fog will form later and likely be more restricted to the
river valleys. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to control the
weather across eastern Kentucky, with very warm sunny days and
mild nights. As has been the case recently, we do expect some
locally dense fog in the river valleys the next two nights,
especially in the far east and southeast part of the forecast

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather
through the weekend. Models indicate a backdoor cold front will drop
into the Ohio Valley late in the weekend, but this stays north of
our area. In fact, weak high pressure in place at the surface will
provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend. Temperatures
will remain well above normal each day through Sunday, and we bumped
up highs each day a few degrees above the Super Blend guidance with
dry ground, relatively low humidity and lots of sunshine each day.
Low humidity will allow overnight lows to fall back into the low 60s
for most locations each night.

Beyond Sunday, forecaster confidence decreases quite a bit as models
indicate the development of a blocking pattern and continue to show
quite a bit of timing differences with the passage of a cold front.
If the 21/12Z ECMWF were to pan out, we wouldn`t see any rain until
Wednesday. However, the 21/12Z GFS solution would bring a prolonged
rain event from Monday night through at least Wednesday. With such
differences in the models, the Super Blend offered a great
compromise, offering low PoPs Monday night through Wednesday with
decreasing temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

High pressure centered across New England will provide for mainly
VFR conditions across eastern Kentucky. Some IFR or worse fog is
expected to be prevalent once again between 06 and 13z, but this
should be more restricted to the deeper river valleys, and will
not include any visibility restrictions at the TAF sites at this
time. Winds will continue to average around 5 kts or less, mainly
out of the east and northeast.




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