Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 181140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
640 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Forecast still on track early this morning. Rain showers are
beginning to move across the Tennessee border and into eastern
Kentucky as we speak. These showers will be isolated to start, but
should become scattered by late this morning. The rain will
persist through the overnight hours, and should exit the area by
mid morning Sunday. The rain will be generally light, with a
quarter of an inch or less expected at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of
low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley
regions. The first rain showers should begin moving into the area
early this morning, with scattered showers spreading across the
remainder of eastern Kentucky through out the day. The rain
should begin to taper off tonight, with the last rain showers
exiting the area mid morning Sunday. Based on the latest model
data, precipitation amounts should be meager at best, with a
quarter of an inch or less expected pretty much everywhere. Above
normal temperatures will persist during the weekend as well, with
highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected, and in the
low to mid 60s on Sunday. Tonights lows should only fall into the
low to mid 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5
to 10 mph today, and will shift to the west on Sunday after the
area of low pressure moves off to our east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Springlike warmth will remain in place through the upcoming week.
While the vast majority of the week looks to remain precipitation
free, later Tuesday into early Wednesday looks to bring some
meager rainfall amounts of perhaps one to two tenths of an inch.
This will come by way of a shortwave trough extending from the
Northwestern Territories to Mexico, following deep layer ridging
and an invasion of balmy 850 mb temperatures, warming temperatures
into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday. Further promoting this
warmth will be a downslope wind component with east/southeast low
level winds in place. Any lingering rainfall Wednesday morning
will shift east during the afternoon, although would not be
surprised to see drying ensue by early Wednesday morning given the
northern stream of this wave dampening and shearing out as the
southern stream portion digs into the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless,
temperatures will remain warm, in the mid-upper 60s, despite a
period of low clouds and without a notable change in airmass.

An upper level disturbance will then develop across the Great
Basin and Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally,
an upper low from the Canadian Prairies to Hudson Bay will usher
energy into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Not expecting
any resulting rainfall for eastern Kentucky from this latter
feature, but will have to monitor lead impulses ejecting
downstream of the former system. Slim rain shower chances will
thus result Thursday, before chances increase later Friday into
the first half of next weekend. Currently looking like a cold
front will finally kick through eastern Kentucky, bringing
bonafide rain chances and cooler temperatures. However, upper low
track across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes warrants skepticism
as to greater rainfall and also potential thunder chances. Will
therefore keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast until
prospects for more appreciable/robust large scale forcing for
ascent become clearer.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Scattered showers are possible mainly from 16Z onward and enough
saturation may occur for a few periods of MVFR CIGS and or VIS by
the end of the period. Still not real confident that enough
saturation will occur in the lower levels to allow cloud bases to
descend to MVFR levels, but will monitor this situation closely
and will update the TAFs as need should the MVFR conditions occur.
Southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph will start around 15Z this morning,
and will last through the afternoon, before slacking off to around
5 mph this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR



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