Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141133

National Weather Service Jackson KY
633 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2017

An area of surface high pressure is just to the north of Kentucky
in southern Ohio this morning. We continue to see some northeast
to east weak flow around this high pressure. The biggest issue
continues to be the persistent area of lower stratus. This low
level moisture remains stuck underneath a strong inversion and
drier air aloft. The good news is we are starting to see some
erosion of this deck of clouds. There are portions of the area
that have seen some scattering of the deck and consequently
seeing temperatures drop off at a more steady pace this morning.
The models remain all over the board on how this deck of clouds
behaves, and therefore stuck close to current grids, with a trend
toward some of the short term guidance blends. The sky grids will
likely have to be adjusted more with satellite trends and newer
guidance through the day. The temperatures could be a bit slower
to rise in the east, but eventually think most sites will warm
into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The warmer spots will be those in
the southwest where more sun should be seen overall.

This area of surface high pressure will move off to northeast
through the day today. While the high pressure does move east
think the combination of clearing skies and weak flow will lead to
a shot of at least some ridge/valley splits in the eastern
valleys. We will also see a surface low take shape across the
Upper Midwest as a short wave progresses into the Northern
Plains. This low pressure and upper level shortwave will continue
to progress  into the Great Lakes tonight and Wednesday. The
attendant cold front and weak height falls will progress eastward
toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the day on
Wednesday. This will bring a shot of rain showers by Wednesday
afternoon for most of eastern Kentucky. There were some slight
timing differences with the models but trended closer to the
shorter term models. Ahead of this, temperatures will warm into
the mid to upper 50s under south to southwest flow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2017

The area will be affected by two cold fronts during the period.
The first one will move through on Wednesday night. Models are in
fairly good agreement for this system, and show the upper level
support carrying the axis of deep moisture out ahead of the
surface front in the warm air advection regime, and drying with
time. That being the case, the forecast will show chance POPs as
Wednesday night starts, with any precip exiting to the southeast
during the evening. The front will be rather weak, and will only
have a minor impact on temperatures.

After a dry finish to the work week, a much more potent cold
front will move in from the northwest with our next round of rain
during the weekend. The models are still having trouble pinning
down the timing for this front. There is an overall trend for a
slower progression of the front, with the ECMWF still being the
slowest. In light of the latest runs and the uncertainty, have
capped POP at 50-60% in any given period, with a peak occurring
late Saturday into Saturday evening. There is confidence that
there will be rain at some point in time with this front, but
confidence in timing is lacking, which precludes using a higher
POP in any given period. After the cold front passes, a dry but
chilly air mass will arrive to start the new week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

An area of high pressure remains to our north this morning and
will move northeast through the day. A weak upper level short wave
did bring some high clouds across the area overnight and these
are exiting to the south. The broken record story is the low
stratus deck that continues to plague much of eastern Kentucky
this morning. The good news is we have seen slow improvements,
with MVFR being the story for most of the sites this morning. The
exception has been the Bluegrass where we have seen VFR
conditions. The other good news is we will see continued
improvements at all sites through the day today. In fact, most
sites should see VFR CIGs by 18z to 20Z this afternoon. Winds will
remain light out of the north and east and possibly veer around
to the southeast tonight.




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