Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270736
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUITE WELL BASED
ON 00Z UA DATA. THIS MORNING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW BEGINNING TO
CUTOFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTING
THIS UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ANOTHER
WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WE REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOME CAM
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION DOES FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE DID KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE A
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KNOTS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THAT MANY
OF THE CAMS ARE MODEST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS AT THIS
JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN IT/S WAKE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
BECOMES A BIT MORE CONFINED FURTHER NORTH. STILL...THIS WILL MEAN
A CONTINUED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...AS
SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...BEFORE TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORT WAVES TAKE OVER
THEREAFTER. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE
NEARBY...ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH EVERYDAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS MOVED
EAST OF EASTERN KY TONIGHT AND RESIDES IN WV. SOME RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SO DO
KEEP -SHRA AND VCSH IN TAFS OVERNIGHT. NOT SOLD ON A HARD FALL IN
CIGS IN THE TAFS OVERNIGHT WITH GUIDANCE KEEPING MOST SITES MVFR.
DID OPT TO BRING SME DOWN FURTHER AND OTHERWISE DO INTRODUCE MVFR
VIS AT MOST SITES. SITES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS WE
MOVE INTO THE LATER MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT...HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH COLD FRONT BETWEEN 17 AND
19Z WITH GUST OUT OF THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ


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