Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Issued at 649 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers have become very numerous over the western portion of the
area early this morning, as they continue their march eastward.
have raised pops to likely for most of the area during the
morning. There have been a few very sparse lightning strikes, but
have not included it in the forecast yet, thinking that the
probability at any given location is still quite low this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Showers developed over central ky during the night and were
starting to move into the JKL CWA at forecast issuance time.
These were occurring as a shortwave trough moved east in an area
of isentropic lift. The hrrr model was picking up on these
showers, but it has shown variation run to run. the forecast
loosely follows the evolution of the precip in the hrrr for this
morning. After this, the forecast transitions to a reliance on
the nam and gfs, with a possibility for more development with
afternoon heating.

The big picture still has a southeast ConUS upper ridge in place,
and a broad western ConUS upper trough. We are on the periphery of
the ridge`s influence. The main westerlies were just to our north
and west, and this is where the better focus for convection will
be. Any pattern changes will be slow to come about. Will look for
a general diurnal trend for precip in our local area, with an
overall decline tonight, and another possible uptick with heating
on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

The extended forecast will feature well above normal temperatures,
muggy conditions, and daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
The model data at this time is a bit sketchy on timing details of
the weather systems that might bring rain to eastern Kentucky from
Friday night through the middle of next week, so precipitation
chances were kept fairly low, in the 20 to 30 percent chance range
across the board. In general, the forecast is calling for rain
chances each day and night, with the best chance for thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures each day
in the extended are expected to be in the low to mid 80s, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)

All was quiet at the start of the period, with mainly vfr
conditions. There was some localized mvfr due to light fog.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms were occurring over central
ky and middle tn. Short range models have this area of precip
developing further east overnight. This is because of a shortwave
trough moving east, coupled with isentropic lift. Will expect
coverage to remain spotty, and have only used vcsh in the tafs
during the morning hours. Localized sub-vfr conditions will occur
because of fog and showers through the morning, but vfr should be
predominant. Can`t rule out additional showers/thunderstorms
developing with the heat of the day, but the probability looks low
at any given location, and it hasn`t been included in tafs.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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