Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS USING THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. AS IS TYPICAL...
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S
ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION.
JUST A HINT OF VALLEY FOG IS NOTED IN THE MONTICELLO OBSERVATION
AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEEP...
AND CLOSED...LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF LOW HEIGHTS WHILE
WEAK PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVE BY AT MID LEVELS IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE MINUSCULE MODEL SPREAD WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND
SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12.

CAPITAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY AND KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW...TO A
MINIMUM. HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT NIGHT...LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR MAY SET A
RECORD LOW TONIGHT AT JKL...CURRENTLY A MILD 58 DEGREES FROM
1984...BUT PROBABLY LOZ/S 46 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1966 WILL STAY OUT
OF REACH.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS
TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT
THEN EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
US WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TO
USHER IN LL MOISTURE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP WE COULD GET. SO FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
THIS IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION...
TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH FURTHER
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFFECTING THE SME SITE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 13Z. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO JUST SME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF


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