Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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061
FXUS63 KJKL 190007
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
807 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HAD A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON TODAYS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO FAR WE HAVE SEEN MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND LESS THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING. THAT BEING SAID...PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM 18Z
ONWARD HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND
LOW MODEL CONFIDENCE. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST...IT STILL SEEMED REASONABLE TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST AROUND 4Z TONIGHT. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD COME FROM GENERAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN FROM TO TIME...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUN SET.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE
OF RAIN BY 22 OR 23Z ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH COOLER WEATHER IN STORE
BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT AS A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE MID 40S IN OUR VALLEYS AND THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
ALONG OUR RIDGES. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE
AND ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR SUCH A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS DOESN/T LAST TOO LONG AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING THE WETTER/STRONGER OF THE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO A
DRY GFS SOLUTION. SO HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI MORNING...SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY AND SUNNY START TO MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. MOISTURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A NEARING
COLD FRONT...HAVE LED ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE ON A DECLINING STATE...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING...ANY PASSING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY DROP CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR OR EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VALLEY
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS WELL...THOUGH AS WAS THE CASE
LAST NIGHT...EXPECT THIS TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS AT TAF SITES SO
DID NOT INCLUDE IN FORECAST. BY TOMORROW...A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
BEGIN MOVING IN...WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS /BACK TO VFR/ AND WINDS
BECOMING MORE NWRLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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