Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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779
FXUS63 KJKL 110913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE CLOUDS SKIES EARLY TODAY GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TODAYS HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDOR MAXING OUT IN THE LOWER 30S. THE COLD WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MERCURY PLUMMETS INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
WILL BE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
30S ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE MOST LIKELY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TRANSLATING EAST FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A FEW OF THE
TYPICALLY SNOW-PRONE RIDGES RECEIVING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF AN
INCH OF SNOWFALL AS UPSLOPE WINDS AND RAPID COLUMN COOLING
OCCURS...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE 700 MB LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
OF THE ABOVE REFERENCED GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STEMMING FROM A POTENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SPOTS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION LIKELY
SEEING SUB- ZERO VALUES. ~1040 MB SURFACE RIDGING PLOWING INTO THE
MISSOURI VALLEY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS
FOR MANY LOCALES WHILE AREAS NEARER THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE MAY
BREACH THE 20 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE IN THE OFFING SUNDAY
MORNING AS THIS RIDGE PUSHES OVERHEAD. COOLER LOWS WILL BE HELD IN
CHECK BY THE ONSET OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO BACKING
HEIGHTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDWEST.

THIS SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING A LONG PERIOD OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK. SNOW WILL
BE THE PREDOMINANT MODE AT THE ONSET WHILE A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
30S. FURTHER WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A DIURNAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN SNOW AND RAIN DURING THE NIGHT AND DAY
RESPECTIVELY. A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE TIMING
AND EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. PHASING OF THESE NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES AND EXACT PLACEMENT
OF CONTINUED EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN ENERGY WILL GREATLY IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS/PHASE. CENTRAL TO EASTERN
CANADIAN LOW APPEARS TO REMAIN CONTAINED WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
FOR NOW AS PROGRESSIVE BROAD-SCALE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO AN ABOVE AVERAGE WARMUP BY
LATE WEEK AS DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN.|

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

A FEW SNOW FLURRIES MAY AFFECT LOZ AND SME OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THOSE AIRPORTS DUE TO
LOW CIGS AND THE SNOW. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...BKN TO OVC AT TIMES...SHOULD BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT BY 15 OR 16Z AS A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TEMPORARILY SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR



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