Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 050726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL SATURATED...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL


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