Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
STILL NOSING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR CLOUD COVER TO FILTER INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA BY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE WARM FRONT. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FOR THE EVENTUAL
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
WESTERN AREAS AND ALSO THE RIDGE TOPS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE DEEPER VALLEYS TO THE EAST WILL NOT MIX OUT AT ALL. BUT THINKING
THAT THE EVENTUAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
VALLEYS. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY HIT THEIR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THE NIGHT. DID SLOW THE APPROACH OF LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO
UNTIL SUNDAY LATE MORNING AS IT SEEMS THE RAIN WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. A DOWN SLOPE
COMPONENT WILL ALSO HINDER THIS. THOUGH...WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DEFINITE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL DO NOT LOOK VERY PROMISING FOR
THUNDER STILL AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LACKING AND WILL NOT HAVE
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS TO
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. HAVE KEPT THE 25 TO
35 KNOT GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE FORECAST. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TAP TONIGHT WITH A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO ALLOW SOME
VALLEYS...MAINLY IN THE EAST...TO DROP CONSIDERABLY EARLY TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO POISED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA
BY THE MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MIN
TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LATER AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AND
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY NEED ADDRESSED. FOR NOW...HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OUT OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEN
EVENTUALLY THIS SHORTWAVE WILL COUPLE WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
IN THE WESTERN US AS IT PROGRESSES EAST. THIS AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BE PART OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
TEXAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER...AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
WITH EASTERN VALLEY SPOTS POSSIBLY STILL SEEING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
DECOUPLED TEMPERATURES GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. THE ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED CLOUDS EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MOVING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTH. MOST MODELS DO INDICATE THAT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET INTO A DRY SLOT WITH LESSENING PRECIP AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW BREAKS LIKELY.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A 10 KFT DECK AND AS THE THE SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AFTER DAWN AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...A 5 KFT DECK WILL THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





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