Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 291745
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

The more widespread rain has now mostly dissipated and moved east
based on latest scans from WSR-88D radar. We will see more in the
way of isolated activity until the next wave moves east out of
western and central KY this afternoon. The HRRR seems to have a
decent handle on this so blended toward that at this point.
Therefore updated hourly grids to deal with latest obs and
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on radar, observation, and
short term model trends. This fine tuned the timing of the area
of showers moving across the CWA at this time. These should
diminish as they near the WV and VA borders. A lull in the late
morning to early afternoon is anticipated, followed by
redevelopment by mid afternoon. Any lingering fog will lift and
dissipate by 9 AM EDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Early this morning, a ridge of high pressure was centered north of
the Bahamas with another ridge centered over the Southwestern
Conus. A closed low was over Eastern Canada with troughing
extending south to the TN Valley. Weak shortwaves are moving
through the flow, with one currently nearing Eastern KY with
another more prominent shortwave slowly moving toward the Mid MS
Valley region. Meanwhile a nearly stationary surface frontal zone
extends from the Mid Atlantic states to a weak wave of low
pressure over Eastern OH and then extending southwest to the
north of the OH River and then into the Central Plains. The
airmass over the Commonwealth is currently not as most as 24 hours
ago with PW on the order of a quarter of an inch less at present.
Skies had become mostly clear to clear during the evening and this
has combined with moist low levels from recent rain and light
winds to lead to low stratus and fog formation. Dense fog has
developed in some locations, but this has begun to lift with just
stratus remaining in some locations in the west as some mid level
clouds move into the the area or develop.

Recent radar imagery indicated some showers had developed in the
Casey County vicinity, but this development is not at least as of
yet as substantial as suggested by the 7Z HRRR. Some isolated to
possibly scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm may develop
prior to dawn and slowly move east across the area. Recent short
term model guidance indicates that what manages to develop should
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. During this same time,
lingering fog and stratus should also begin to lift and dissipate
within a couple of hours after sunrise. A generally diurnal peak
in convection is anticipated today, however, during the afternoon
to early evening hours in advance of one or more weak shortwaves
moving through the flow. The strongest upstream shortwave is
expected to rotate into the OH Valley tonight and move east of the
area on Saturday. Thus, convection even at night, especially late
tonight cannot be ruled out as the area is expected to remain in
the warm sector through the end of the period. Scattered
convection, again peaking during the afternoon to early evening is
anticipated again for Saturday.

The moist airmass in place should lead to considerable cumulus
development and scattered showers and thunderstorms today with
mid and high clouds also passing by from time to time. All of this
should again limit diurnal ranges today with highs again near if
not a degree or two below normal for highs. Lows will average a
couple of degrees above normal with the moist airmass in place.
Highs on Saturday should average near normal for the end of July.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Aside from a brief dry period Tuesday and Tuesday night, the
extended will feature daily and nightly chances of showers and
storms across eastern Kentucky. The focus of these showers and
storms will be a frontal boundary that is forecast to stall across
the region. A few weak disturbances moving along the front will also
help spark showers and storms across our area, particularly during
the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating. A warm
and moist air mass will remain in place during the period, making
for very muggy conditions. Daily high temperatures are expected to
top out in the mid to upper 80s, with nightly lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

There is a mix of VFR and MVFR to start the period. WSR-88D radar
shows that showers and storms have expended across the region as
expected. This will make TAFs difficult given the scattered nature
and uncertainty attached. Right now will add a TEMPO group to
SME/LOZ where activity will be more prevalent. The storms will be
mostly diurnally driven and we should see activity wane by this
evening. Then we will see potential for fog/stratus issues
overnight into the AM hours once again. The question is to what
extent given cloud cover and therefore kept most MVFR. Did opt to
go lower at SME/LOZ where more storm activity is expected. Light
winds will be the story, but any storm could produce a brief
higher gust.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ



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