Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252000

National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST SAT FEB 25 2017

A ridge of high pressure will be keeping the weather across
eastern Kentucky cool but dry tonight through early Sunday
evening. A much cooler air mass is now in place after a potent
cold front moved through the region last night, so tonights lows
will be quite winter like with minimum values in the low to mid
20s expected. Conditions will be a bit warmer tomorrow, as cloud
cover departs overnight, allowing for strong sunshine on Sunday.
Highs tomorrow should rise to around 50 degrees at most locations.
Low temperatures Sunday night should return to above normal
values, as cloud cover begins to increase and winds shift to the
south and southeast ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
Temperatures are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s by
Monday morning, which will be quite a bit warmer than tonights
expected lows.

A mix of rain and snow showers is then expected to move into the
area from the west late tonight into early Monday morning, as
moisture associated with our next weather system begins to
interact with the cold air mass that will still be in place.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017

The extended portion of the forecast will be fairly active, with
alternating periods of wet and dry weather and warm and cooler
conditions. The period will likely start off dry, with slightly
above normal temperatures Sunday and Sunday night. The pattern is
then expected to shift on Monday, as a weak warm front moves through
the area, bringing persistent southerly flow and warmer air into the
region. Rain showers should begin to move into the area from the
southwest and west late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The
rain will overspread the entire area by late Monday afternoon and
early Monday evening, as an area of low pressure moves along what
will become a nearly stalled out frontal boundary. This pattern is
tentatively expected to persist through late in the day on Tuesday.
A wave of low pressure is then forecast to form along the western
end of the stalled front Tuesday night. This second area of low
pressure is then expected to push eastward on Wednesday, and will
drag another cold front across the lower Ohio valley and Tennessee
valley regions. This boundary may be just strong enough, and just
enough moisture an instability available, for a few thunderstorms to
form along and just ahead of the front, as it moves across the
region. Once the front moves past us Wednesday night, any
thunderstorms should give way to all rain showers. We may even see
enough cold air filter in behind the system to allow some snow to
mix in with whatever rain is left. The last of this precipitation
should be out of the area by late Thursday morning. Thursday and
Thursday night should be mostly dry. There is an outside chance that
a few rain and snow showers will move across the area along and
north of I64 to end the period, with due to uncertainty, this should
be taken with a grain of salt.

Temperatures in the extended on average will be above average each
day, with the warmest days being Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday,
when the highs will be in the 50s and 60s. Closer to normal values
should be experienced on  Thursday, when the mercury is forecast to
max out lower 50s. Nightly lows should be in 30s, 40s, and 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Initial lower end of VFR Cigs are expected to start the period
as drier air moves into the area and mixing occurs through late
this afternoon. All locations are expected to remain at VFR
through the end of the TAF period. A few sprinkles and perhaps a
flurry cannot be ruled out through around 0Z this evening. Winds
should remain generally west at 10 to 15KT with some gusts as
high as 20 to 25 mph. The winds should begin to diminish once the
sun goes down and an upper level low pressure pulls of to our
east. Current BKN to OVC cloud is expected to persist through 22
or 23Z today, before scattering out during the evening hours. We
should see clear to mostly clear skies at all TAF sites by between
6 and 10Z Sunday.




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