Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201950
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
350 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Current radar mosaic is showing isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the region with slightly better coverage
across central portions of the Commonwealth. Expect this activity
will continue for a few more hours before waning around sunset.

Models are in good agreement through the short term. Additional
short wave energy will drop down into the area tomorrow on the
south side of a developing mid/upper level ridge. This ridge will
nose its way northeastward through the period, expanding from the
southern plains into the mid Mississippi Valley overnight, and
then into the Great Lakes by end of the day Thursday.

Sensible weather will see another night with fog. However, while
the fog will be locally dense in places expectations are that the
overall coverage and intensity should not be quite as bad as last
night. With short wave energy riding along the southeastern edge
of the ridge Thursday, can not rule out another day of isolated
convection across the area tomorrow, similar to the last couple
of afternoons. Temperatures will continue to run about 5 degrees
above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

The period will be controlled by upper level ridging moving across
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and surface high nosing south from
time to time. This well established ridge will keep the tropical
systems well away from the Ohio Valley. The only issue will be the
potential for mainly valley fog and slight ridge valley
temperature splits in the morning. However, towards the end of the
long term period we do see signs of the eastern lower 48 ridge
breaking down, and this will allow for slightly cooler afternoon
temperatures (closer to average for this time of year) and
lowering heights.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

Respectful CU field out there this afternoon but considerably
less coverage in shower activity as compared to yesterday at this
time. Just the same we are seeing convection firing across the
far east and in the south-southwest where there is a bit better
instability and shear. Coverage is not widespread enough to
include mention in the TAFs but will amend should something
threaten any terminals. Otherwise, expecting the redevelopment of
fog overnight, becoming locally dense in places. Expectations are
that fog will not be quite as bad as last night. Followed guidance
closely but tended to go slightly more optimistic overall. Winds
will be light and variable through the entire period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY


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