Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 301317
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
917 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE DIMINISHING ON
RADAR...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND START THE ISOLATED POPS AN HOUR
OR SO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. ALSO...WE ONLY HAVE A
COUPLE SITES ACROSS THE REGION REPORTING FOG AS OF 13Z...AND THE
ONES THAT ARE SEEM TO BE SHOWING RAPIDLY INCREASING VISIBILITIES.
AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FOG FROM ONGOING FORECAST AS IT
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY BURNED OFF DURING THE 13Z HOUR.
FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST
WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. AN UPDATE TO THE
ZONE FORECAST WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST
OBS IN. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN NOW SOME SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER. SO UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND SENT THEM TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...A SEPARATE SLUG OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL
AND GA COASTLINE. THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH FL
COAST TRACKS NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE AL AND FL PANHANDLE
TRACKING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL...THIS BEING
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THIS CLUSTER OF CIRCULATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING EAST WILL PROVIDE
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AN EVER
PRESENT WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
PATTERN BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DEPENDENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT IN
THIS PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
TERRAIN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE TYPICAL SHORTCOMINGS GIVEN
THE PATTERN.

THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW
90 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN KEEPING FOG COVERAGE
MINIMAL THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL START THE
TAF SITES OFF THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WITH HEATING AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...WILL INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AT THE SITES WITH VCTS BY 18Z AND CONTINUING TILL 00Z.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FROM THE DAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
WIND DOWN WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE SITES THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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