Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240259

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1059 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 1058 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Did a quick update to make sure the near term forecast for
temperatures and dew points were on track with current
observations. These changes were published and sent to NDFD/web.
Also sent out a new zone forecast to update the time period
wording for tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Forecast seems to be in good shape so far this evening. Updated to
make sure the temp, dew point, and wind forecasts reflected the
ongoing conditions in the near term. Also ended up lowering wind
gusts overnight, as there has been a model high bias and the
ongoing forecast was unrealistic compared to current conditions.
All changes have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Changes were
minor enough that no new forecast package will be needed at this


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

19z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the south starting to
yield to an inbound dry cold front to the northwest. This front`s
approach is responsible for the tightening pressure gradient
helping, along with good mixing under sunny conditions, to keep
the winds going from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph, or so, with
occasional gusts around 25 mph. These breezes, again along with
the full sunshine, support temperatures climbing into the upper
60s and low 70s. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are running in the upper
30s to lower 40s.

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast as they all show Kentucky in the midst of
fairly fast northwest flow between a deep trough to the northeast
and rather flat ridging west. A weak trough will pass by to the
north tonight into Monday morning but its energy stays well off to
the northeast to have any real affect on our weather. Given the
good agreement have favored a general blend with emphasis on the
higher resolution guidance from the HRRR and NAM12, along with
some deference to the COOP MOS guidance - especially Monday

Sensible weather will feature a bit milder of a night as the winds
stay up better and the front limits the strength of the inversion.
Will allow for some river valley fog near dawn as we have had the
past couple of mornings. Another pleasant day is expected on
Monday with mostly sunny skies, breezy winds switching to the
northwest post fropa, and afternoon temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s. Drier and cooler air moves in Monday night with a
better potential for frost in the valleys early Tuesday morning.
Have added that to the grids along with a mention in the HWO.

Again used the CONSShort/ShortBlend as the starting point for the
bulk of the grids with adjustments to the night-time temps for
terrain as well as knocking dewpoints down in the afternoon a tad.
PoPs were zeroed out through the period - in line with all

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The models are in good agreement through the work week then diverge
in their solutions. At the start of the period, heights will rise as
high pressure scoots into the area from the south. This high
pressure will be over the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
morning, allowing lower dew points to mix down. This will lead to
the best chance of the period for some patchy frost Wednesday
morning. Winds shift to the southwest ahead of a shortwave trough
passage, allowing for warmer and moist air to infiltrate the region
Wednesday afternoon. A cold front is then expected to swing through
East Kentucky by Thursday evening with a chance for some showers
throughout the day. High pressure shifts into the area Thursday
night but quickly exits by Friday evening. Beyond Friday, the
forecast is a bit up in the air as model solutions diverge. So have
decided to remain close to the CR Superblend solution beyond Friday,
with minor changes made to the temperatures to account for night-
time inversions.

Temperatures will remain fairly seasonable through the period with
afternoon highs in the 60s and low 70s. Morning lows will start out
near freezing in the valleys on Wednesday morning, with all temps
moderating into the 40s/low 50s through the rest of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds have settled
down this evening to generally less than 10 knots. A few gusts
continue at KSYM and may continue for the next couple of hours.
Still expecting a dry cold front to cross through the region from
the NW through the overnight. This will keep many locations from
seeing light and variable winds overnight, despite clear
conditions. Winds will shift from SW this evening ahead of the
cold front to NW by tomorrow morning just after the frontal
passage. Some gusts above 10 knots may be possible during the
afternoon once more.




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