Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 221955 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

FRESHENED UP TEMPS WITH LATEST OBS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA NEAR THE BLUEGRASS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 50S WHILE A FEW VALLEY SPOTS ACROSS
THE CWA CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE UP INTO THE LOWER 40S. THEREFORE DID
FRESHEN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION TO MATCH CURRENT
OBS. GIVEN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RETURN FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AREA WIDE TODAY. WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CWA/BLUEGRASS REGIONS THIS MORNING. THESE
RETURNS HAVE BEEN LIGHT IN MOST CASES AND EXPECT MUCH OF THE RETURNS
SEEN ON RADAR ARE PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER DID OPT
TO KEEP SPRINKLES JUST A BIT LONGER IN THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING INTO AROUND THE NOON TIME FRAME GIVEN THAT REGION WOULD
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OUT IN THE
WEST...WHERE EKQ IS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE MID 40S. FURTHER
EAST...VALLEYS STILL REMAIN DECOUPLED...WITH THE PAINTSVILLE MESONET
STILL REPORTING 20 DEGREES AND OUR COOP IN INEZ REPORTING AT 21
DEGREES. THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT RETURNS SKIMMING BY THE
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...AND THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY SPRINKLES FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...HAVE MERELY FRESHENED UP THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH LOW PRESSURE CRUISING THROUGH ONTARIO.
ALOFT...FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW IS IN PLACE...WITH A WEAKER SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. A STRONGER VORT IS ROTATING
ALONG NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS MOVING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT HAS BEEN ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW VALLEYS IN THE FAR EAST
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS...WHILE LOW TO MID 20S ARE COMMON IN THE
BROADER VALLEYS. RIDGETOPS ARE IN THE 30S THANKS TO LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. A DECENT 850 MB JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAKING OUT ACROSS MOST OF
INDIANA AND DOWN INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LATEST HRRR MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR TOWARDS DAWN...HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOK LOW.

ONCE THE SPRINKLES SKIRT BY TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK IN
PLACES...TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ABOUT A WEEK AND A
HALF. MEANWHILE...NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST. THE VORT WILL THEN SWING MORE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY
CONGLOMERATING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT...AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN THE EAST...WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. A WARM FRONT/MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO DOWNPLAY THE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE FAR EAST WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN
PLACE. DESPITE THE SHOWERS MOVING IN...HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALOFT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND CARRY ON THAT WAY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE ECMWF BREAKS RANK. IT TAKES A STRONG SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN CONTRAST TO
THE GFS VERSION THAT KEEP ITS ENERGY COINCIDENT WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE GEM SORT OF SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE WITH A SLOWER MAIN TROUGH BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS. BY FRIDAY THE MODELS ARE QUITE
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE GEM/S LOW HEIGHTS HANGING BACK OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION WHILE THE ECMWF BODILY MOVES ITS SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE EAST COAST AND THE GFS HAS A FLATTER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO GET BACK IN
STEP WITH EACH OTHER FOR THE WEEKEND AS THEY BOTH DEPICT NEARLY FLAT
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH WEAK ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST COAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED WILL FAVOR A BLENDED SOLUTION FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF A
LARGE SYSTEM ROLLING INTO QUEBEC. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT DOES CROSS
THE STATE ON MONDAY WITH A BKN BAND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH
AND EAST LEAVING MAINLY JUST SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND LOW POPS BEHIND.
THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE A WAVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
BRUSHING BY EAST KENTUCKY TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT...CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SLIPPING INTO THE CWA AS THE LOW PASSES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF THEN TAKE A SFC LOW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE FORMER
MORE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER THAN THE LATTER. IT IS IN THE WAKE OF
THIS LOW...AND ITS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT...THAT THE COLDER AIR
FINALLY SURGES INTO EAST KENTUCKY...IN THE ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME
UPSLOPE AND GREAT LAKES ENHANCED PCPN. THE GFS KEEPS THE WORST OF THE
COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH JUST SPOTTY PCPN CHANCES ALONG THE NEARBY BOUNDARY. SPLITTING
THE DIFFERENCE HERE MAKES FOR A COMPLICATED FORECAST...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST WE CAN DO WITHOUT A MODEL BREAK TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR
THE OTHER. FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP THE PCPN AT BAY...GENERALLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT
IT DOES START TO PULL OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ALLOW SOMETHING TO
SLIP IN LATE.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS EARLY ON. DID ALSO
MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE LOWS BASED ON TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PASSING LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING...AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. OTHERWISE MOST CLOUD COVER WILL BE AT
OR ABOVE 10K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...AT OR AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





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