Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 022205
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
605 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

MADE SEVERAL UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE ONGOING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS SO THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOWED UP IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AFTER 0Z ONCE WE
LOSE SOME OF THE BEST SUN/HEATING. UNTIL THEN...THESE STORMS ARE
SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD SUSTAINABILITY WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOWS
SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT THEM TO HOLD ON FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY DROP SOUTHWARD. POPS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH THE AID OF THE AFTERNOON HEATING...VERY
SIMILAR TO THAT OF TODAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT BETTER COVERAGE. AS
SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED THE ISL/CHANCE POPS THAT WERE IN THE
FORECAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z TOMORROW...SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
WE WILL SEE ANYTHING BEGIN POPPING UP UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME.

AFTER ADJUSTING THE POPS...WENT AHEAD AND RERAN THE WEATHER GRIDS
TO MAKE SURE THE CHANGES WERE REFLECTED HERE AS WELL. IN
ADDITION...TOOK OUT THE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE
CWA...SINCE /AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/ MOST
OF THE FOG SHOULD BE CONTAINED TO THE VALLEYS AND CLOSE TO BODIES
OF WATER. KEPT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FOG...BUT CONFINED IT
TO THESE VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING/S VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONFIRMS THIS THINKING...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY
AIRMASS CHANGES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THAT OF LAST
NIGHT.

GIVEN OUR TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER IN MANY
LOCATIONS COMPARED TO THAT OF YESTERDAY /THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD/...EXPECT
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TO FOLLOW THE SAME PATTERN...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY EXPERIENCING LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THAT OF LAST NIGHT. AS SUCH...FELT FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE TOO LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS...SO WENT AHEAD AND
BUMPED THEM UP ACCORDINGLY. DID TRY TO INCLUDE A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND ALONG WITH NRLY
WINDS...THIS MAY PROHIBIT DAYTIME TEMPS FROM BEING QUITE AS WARM
AS THEY WERE TODAY IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS WAS WELL REFLECTED IN
TOMORROW/S HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL ACCORDINGLY ONCE
AGAIN. ENDED UP UPDATING THE OVERNIGHT LOW FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ADJUST THE TEMP DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES
TO BETTER COORDINATE WITH THIS SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURE.

FINALLY...I RERAN THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THIS WILL LIKELY BEST CAPTURE THE HIGH PRESSURE
DIURNAL PATTERN THAT WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. I ALSO LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO MAKE SURE THE
NEAR TERM GRIDS WERE A GOOD REFLECTION OF THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
ALL GRIDS WERE PUBLISHED AND SENT TO NDFD...AND A NEW ZONE
FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS TO OUR NORTH HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED INTO
OUR AREA DUE TO THE DRY AIR/RIDGING IN PLACE. THERE IS STILL A
SLIGHT CHANCE A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING BUT OTHERWISE THINGS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

AT UPPER LEVELS...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL ADVECT IN ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVES SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
SOME OF THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE (20-30 POPS) OF SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING FOR A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
FOG POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT MAY SEE SOME
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS
BOTH NIGHTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MORE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES CROP UP RIGHT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...
AND BEYOND. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY.
A WEAK AREA OF TROUGHING ALOFT...OR TROUGHINESS STRETCHING FROM THE
MIDWEST...THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR SUMMERTIME LIKE WEATHER
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS ON AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE MORE RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
IN GENERAL WENT WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MINS EACH DAY. POPS WILL GENERALLY DEPEND MORE ON SMALL SCALE
TYPE FEATURES AND DIURNAL HEATING VERSUS SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS...THOUGH
MODELS DO HINT AT SOME TYPE OF BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONSEQUENTLY OR BEST CHANCE AT ANY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
TOWARD NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLUSTER MAY MAKE IT INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSYM TAF SITE. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ALL
RAIN OUT OF THE TAFS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT. IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JVM


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