Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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710
FXUS63 KJKL 151701 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1201 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 PM EST MON JAN 15 2018

Light snow diminished earlier this morning, as a warm front lifted
northeast into Ohio. Clouds have thinned out across most locations
this morning, with temperatures running a bit warmer than
forecast. Adjusted the highs up a tad, with most locations seeing
upper 30s to lower 40s. Most of the latest model guidance has also
trended with a slower timing of the snow, delaying the better
POPs in the northwest until this evening and subsequent downstream
locations. As such, have adjusted timing of the snow into
tonight. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 701 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018

Light snow and flurries continue early this morning, mainly north
and west of Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80. Reports thus far
have topped out at a tenth of an inch, but amounts up to one
quarter of an inch will be possible before snow wraps up within
the next hour or two. A quiet/cloudy mid-late morning will then
ensue through much of the afternoon, prior to the next round of
more impactful snow arriving. Trends still suggest this arriving
by late afternoon north of Interstate 64, sliding southeast this
evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018

Light snow currently moving across the Bluegrass region as a warm
front, associated with a surface low across western Wisconsin, lifts
through central and northeastern Kentucky. This feature`s parent
upper low, just off to the north, will guide the left exit region of
an upper jet streak through eastern Kentucky, further promoting
large-scale forcing for ascent. Dewpoints have recovered somewhat
better than previously expected with readings solidly into the
teens. Lift and near-surface layer moisture will be rather short-
lived along this boundary, with light snow and flurries tapering off
toward and north of the Ohio River by mid-morning. Nonetheless,
snowfall accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch will be
possible mainly along and north of Mountain Parkway.

Clouds will lift and scour out in the low levels this afternoon as
winds veer southwesterly downstream of the surface low migrating
toward the southern shore of Lake Michigan. This will aid in
moisture recovery ahead of an arctic front set to plow through
eastern Kentucky late this evening and tonight, while also providing
a subtle warmup this afternoon with temperatures topping out in the
mid-upper 30s.

The Bluegrass region will see the next and more impactful round of
snow arrive by late this afternoon into early this evening, with
points south and east following suit through the evening, followed
by far southeastern Kentucky seeing flakes fly near midnight. Deep
layer lift will once again be aided by bonafide upper level
dynamics, this time by way of the right entrance region of the
aforementioned jet streak.

Light snow will continue Tuesday, likely lasting through much of the
day in a cold air advection and upslope flow regime. With total
snowfall accumulations generally ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 inches from
late this afternoon through Tuesday, have expanded the Winter
Weather Advisory to encompass all of eastern Kentucky. With the
usual upslope-induced generation enhanced by the aforementioned
upper dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts push or exceed
the 4 inch mark on ridgetops along the Virginia state line. A
warning does not appear to be warranted for now even if amounts do
trend upward as snow amounts will be over a period greater than 12
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 417 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018

The extended will be broken up into three periods. The first will
feature accumulating snowfall across the eastern portions of the
forecast area behind a departing area of low pressure aloft. This
period of snow should quickly taper off Tuesday night, and should
be out of the area by early Wednesday morning. Very cold
temperatures will persist during this period, with highs generally
in the teens and 20s and lows in the single digits to around 10
degrees across the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The second
period of the extended will last from Thursday through Saturday
morning, and will feature a steady warming of temperatures across
the area. The warm up will begin on Thursday, as winds shift to
the southwest across the region. Highs on Thursday are forecast to
top out in the low to mid 30s, which will feel quite warm
compared to the temperatures we`ll see over the next few days.
The warming trend is then expected to continue into the weekend,
with highs forecast to max out in the 40s on Friday and in the low
to mid 50s on Saturday. Another weather system could begin to
influence the region by late Saturday, and we could see a few rain
showers moving into the area Saturday evening and night. This
weather system, should the models be correct, would make its main
push across the area on Sunday, and would bring more numerous rain
showers to eastern Kentucky Sunday and Sunday night. Sunday might
also mark the warmest temperatures we`ll see during the period,
with highs forecast to climb to around 60 degrees on that day.
Nightly lows should gradually increase from the mid teens to lower
20s Thursday night, to the 20s and 30s Friday night, and then
into the mid 30s to lower 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, as
winds remain steady out of the south or southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EST MON JAN 15 2018

Despite continued ceilings through the majority of the day, VFR
conditions are expected to remain in place across the eastern
Kentucky airspace the remainder of this morning through this
afternoon, following MVFR ceilings/visibilities from this
morning`s quick batch of light snow. Winds will veer southwesterly
this morning, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts approaching
15-20 knots. These will largely diminish below 10 knots this
evening with arrival of at least MVFR ceilings/visibilities and
light snow.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-
050>052.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Tuesday for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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