Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





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