Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK ALL SHIFT...SO NO UPDATE TO THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME. DID INGEST THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN
THE HOURLY GRIDS...PARTICULARLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER.
SHOULD BE QUIET NIGHT WITH SOME VALLEY FOG ON TAP...LIGHT WINDS...AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

AS EXPECTED A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THESE HAVE BEEN BRUSHING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE EAST WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING 3 TO 5 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEYS.
PLAN TO GO WITH A FEW READINGS INTO THE UPPER 50S. SHOULD BE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF TYPICAL FOG FOR THE VALLEYS. STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...LEADING TO
THE CONTINUATION OF QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE WARM WEATHER WILL
PERSIST WITH HIGHS AGAIN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND...DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL PREVENT ANY POP UP SHOWERS. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD DIP A FEW DEGREES UNDER LOWS TONIGHT AS WE SHOULD
SEE BETTER MIXING INTO A DRY LAYER TOMORROW. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN MORE LOWS IN THE 50S COME WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE
PATTERN AND MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH A TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION BRINGS IT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSISTENTLY SLOWER ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE CMC
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND TAKES ITS TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...A DAY AHEAD OF THE ECMWF AND DAMPENING IT QUICKER...
SIMILAR TO THE GFS. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE REMAINS OF THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...A BAND OF ENERGY WILL SINK TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY EARLY
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSING OUT OF
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL HELP TO DEPRESS THE HEIGHTS OVER
OUR AREA. THE PLAIN TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOR
THE WEEKEND AND ALSO TAP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGHER PW AIR AND PERHAPS BRING RENEWED CONCERN FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINS OVER THE REGION. FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE ECMWF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED WITH
JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BETTER CHANCES ON
THURSDAY DUE TO A WAVY FRONT DIPPING DOWN INTO KENTUCKY. THIS
BOUNDARY APPEARS TO LIFT BACK NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH A SMALL RISK
OF CONVECTION AS IT DEPARTS. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH THAT WILL TAP INTO GULF
MOISTURE AND BRING RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...PER THE ECMWF. THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY
AND TAKE ITS TRAILING FRONT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY LATER IN THE DAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM CREATE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A GOOD START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID GIVE MORE OF A DIURNAL TREND IN THE HOURLY
GRIDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALSO...KEPT IT DRIER A BIT
LONGER INTO SATURDAY THAN IMPLIED BY THE ALLBLEND. PER USUAL...DID
ADJUST THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS EACH NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT RIDGE
AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR A FEW
CLOUDS TO OCCASIONALLY FORM AROUND 5 AND 12K THROUGH THE END OF THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE IS DRY ENOUGH
THAT ANY FOG FORMATION THAT OCCURS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OUR
RIVER VALLEYS...AND THEREFORE IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE
TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR






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