Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 081858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND
STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP
MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS
A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN
INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND MAY KICK UP SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY.
THE LATEST ECMWF KEPT THINGS DRY...SO THIS MAY BE TAKEN OUT OF THE
FORECAST BY DAY SHIFT. FRIDAY SHOULD STAY DRY AND THEN ON
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. THE MODELS STAY IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE ARE ENOUGH NUANCES THAT THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND STARTS TO TAPER
OFF. USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN MADE SOME
CORRECTIONS BASED ON ELEVATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HINDRANCE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DIE DOWN BY SUNSET.

EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AND MOVE EASTWARD. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY
WHERE STORMS HIT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST
AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA TERMINALS...PARTICULARLY FROM JKL
SOUTH...INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOW CIELINGS TO DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADVERTISE AN MVFR
CEILING OCCURRING AT TAF SITES AFTER 08Z AND LASTING UNTIL
APPROXIMATELY 15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATE THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...ABE




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