Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KJKL 272045

National Weather Service Jackson KY
445 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017

The short term period will be mostly dry, as a strong ridge of
high pressure exerts its influence on the region tonight and
tomorrow. The ridge will begin to break down late tomorrow
afternoon, as a strong area of low pressure aloft begins to move
eastward toward the Ohio valley. The ridge, however, is going to
be stubborn and will not simply exit the area. The ridge should
weaken just enough to allow a warm front to push through the area
tomorrow, while keeping an approaching cold front from invading
the area Friday night. At this time, the model data is suggesting
that our northern counties will see showers and storms Friday
night into early Saturday morning, with areas along and south of
the Hal Rogers Parkway and Highway 80 corridor possibly staying
dry. Well above normal temperatures are expected Friday and Friday
night, with tomorrows highs maxing out in the low to mid 80s and
tomorrow nights lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 445 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017

The models are in fairly good agreement aloft through the long
term portion of the forecast. They all depict a strong ridge
dominating the southeast portion of the nation while a deep trough
digging through the Desert Southwest on Sunday deepens
dramatically before lifting into the Central Plains by Monday
morning. All the while, the ridge holds fast over eastern
Kentucky. However, the shear size of the upper low at this point
will influence our CWA with very fast southwest flow at mid levels
and a node of energy lifting through the area early Monday. The
models are not quite in synch with each other during the time with
the GFS tending to outrun the ECMWF throughout the transition
while the CMC is more supportive of the latter. Accordingly, will
lean toward the ECMWF solution through Monday. In the wake of this
large low lifting through the Great Lakes, more zonal and still
fast flow will remain over Kentucky through midweek with the bulk
of any energy staying north of the area. Reamplification of this
pattern begins by Thursday morning with a large trough developing
further east into the Southern Plains - but some sig differences
in the models at this point. Accordingly, confidence is low toward
the end of the extended.

Sensible weather will feature a very warm weekend across the CWA
south of a well defined warm front and in the midst of a surge of
humid air from the south. Cannot rule out a stray storm during
this time, but the bulk of the area will be dry so will keep PoPs
below 14 percent through Sunday. The systems cold front them
arrives that evening with another round of storms expected, though
winds will be breezy throughout the day and into the night making
for gusty showers to go along with the potential for strong
thunderstorms. Much cooler weather follows this boundary along
with drier conditions. A developing warm front then lifts back
toward the area with a renewed threat of showers and storms for
Wednesday afternoon. Depending on the eventual solution, showers
and storms could be ongoing through Wednesday night and Thursday
as a deep low to the southwest pumps moisture over that front
across our area.

Did make some minor adjustments to temperatures each night -
particularly for ridge to valley differences Sunday night and
again Tuesday night. Also, fine tuned the PoPs early on, mainly to
lift them further north similar the ECMWF rather than the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites through the end of the
period. SCT to BKN low and middle level cloud cover will continue
to move east across the area this afternoon, and should give way
to FEW to SCT clouds by 0Z. Winds should be generally out of the
west to begin the period, should shift to the southeast this
evening, and eventually will be out of the south Friday and Friday
night. The winds should max out at 5 to 10 mph with some gusts
possible late Friday and Friday night. The TAF sites should remain
dry through the end of the TAF period.




AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.