Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 260544
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
144 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1037 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OVERALL CLEAR SKIES ARE PREVAILING THIS HOUR WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
FORMED ALONG AND NEAR THAT BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/IN.
WHILE THESE ARE DRIFTING SOUTH AND EAST...CAMS HAVE THIS
CONVECTION DIEING OFF TONIGHT. THIS IS BEING AIDED BY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY.
STILL EXPECTING MAINLY VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT UNDER CLEAR AND CALM
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME AREAS SEEING PATCHY DENSE FOG TOWARD DAY
BREAK. OVERALL GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ON TRACK TONIGHT. DID
UPDATE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS BRING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH A FEW
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM UPSTREAM MCS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST. JUST MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST OBS/TRENDS...OTHERWISE GRIDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MD MS VALLEY MCS
SHOULD THIN AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH MOST CLOUD
LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE THIN AND HIGH...AND WITH CALM
WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOME LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE
TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE PROVIDING
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AND VARIOUS POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES. GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SLOW DOWN THE
TIMING...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ONLY IN THE EXTREME NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MODELS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND FOR
THE MOST PART ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS
GROUND OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER SUITE OF
MODELS IS SHOWING A WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT A MINIMUM. HARD TO RESOLVE THE
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL STAY TOWARDS A COMPROMISED
FORECAST FOR MONDAY GOING WITH 30 TO 40 POPS. HARD TO GO ANY HIGHER
OR LOWER GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO REAL TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE STRICTLY
TIED TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WILL COME THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
BETTER AGREEMENT BY THURSDAY...SO WAS ABLE TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
NEXT SATURDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OR STALLS JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAKING FOR CALM AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. THE CAVEAT IS THAT A CALM AND CLEAR NIGHT
CULTIVATES FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT
LAST NIGHT MANY SITES SAW AFFECTS FROM FOG AND LAMP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE THE IDEA TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT MVFR TO IFR
VIS IN THE TAFS FOR SME...LOZ...AND SJS. IF LAST NIGHT WAS ANY
INDICATION...SME AND SJS COULD BOTH DROP DOWN BELOW AIRPORT MINS
BRIEFLY AROUND DAYBREAK. DID OPT TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS FOR KSME AND
KJKL...GIVEN THAT ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
COULD HELP NEGATE THE DROPS WE EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT SITES TO BOUNCE BACK TO P6SM BY 13Z. AS A BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...SCT100 WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...AND POSSIBLY BKN100 AT KSYM. ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SOME SCT050 CU COULD ALSO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL BELOW
CRITERIA. BETTER STORM CHANCES EXIST MOSTLY PAST THE TAF PERIOD SO
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF SH OR TSRA AT THIS TIME. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW



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