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000
FXUS63 KJKL 210613 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER
EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE BIG SANDY REGION AND SOME PATCHY STRATOCU
WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDER AREA. SKY COVER WAS FRESHENED UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
BAND TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM STRONGER STORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A DEADLY
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FOUND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE
LOW/S COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT AFTER
SPAWNING A HORRIBLY DESTRUCTIVE AND KILLER TORNADO IN THE MOORE
OKLAHOMA AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EAST KENTUCKY...A MILD AND SLIGHTLY
MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS. CLEAR
SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN ALONG
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK SO
HAVE SIMPLY MATCHED UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...INCLUDING
SATELLITE...WITH THIS UPDATE...ON ITS WAY TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
INCLUDED LOWERING POPS TO NEAR NIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALSO TAKING
SKY COVER DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. DID FINE TUNE THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS
WELL...ENHANCING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET LATER TONIGHT...
AS WELL. THIS IS IN THE GRIDS...THE ZONES...AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE BOTH
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH WRAP AROUND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE NEW FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MODELS THEN ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL OR SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THIS BOUNDARY AS A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE THINKING
IS FOR ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
INCREASE SOME NEXT MONDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING ILL DEFINED
AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WENT WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS...20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ALREADY LED TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS AND PER OBS THIS MAY BE DENSE IS SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE BIG SANDY/TUG VALLEY REGION ATTM. KI35...K22 AND
KPBX SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE LOWER VIS THROUGH 13Z.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ONLY TAKES LOZ AND SME DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP 16Z AND AFTER...POSSIBLY
SOONER AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA BEFORE 16Z. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME VCTS AND CB FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...PICKING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP