Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 271923
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN OH AND INTO NORTHERN KY...THIS COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LATER TONIGHT WITH THE LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE DAYS
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALLOWING
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LOWER LEVELS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST MOVING IN...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES BUT WITH THE SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
REGARDLESS...ESPECIALLY WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE
A WEAKER CAP IN PLACE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR
RATHER EASY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE CELLS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA BRINGING
AN END TO ANY CONVECTION AND ALLOWING SOME CLEARING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
OVERALL...THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED WITH THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE
AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS AT BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. WE COULD SEE A FEW POP UP STORMS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN AS THEY
WILL REMAIN BRIEF. MAIN WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE AROUND THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL KEEP SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
LIMITED. WITH THAT SAID...THIS IS A FAIRLY DECENT FRONT WITH A GOOD
CHANGE IN AIRMASS. THUS...PLAN TO GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE
POPS AS WE ARE MORE LIKELY SEE SOMETHING EVEN IF IT IS MORE
SPORADIC. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT AND EVERYTHING
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...DRY
WEATHER SHOULD ABOUND FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY
WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. HUMIDITY WILL BE KNOCKED BACK AS
WELL...SO WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT SOME VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS. FOG
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE THE CHALLENGE AS SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER
FROM CONVECTION MAY HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THIS AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR RATHER EASY FOG
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE VERY LEAST...HAVE PUT SOME FIELD MINS AND
BELOW AT LOZ AND SME WITH BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER
SITES. HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
SEEMS LIKELY AGAIN AND HAVE PUT IN SOME VCTS IN THE TAFS. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.