Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281447 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTEMTS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UNSEASONABLE COOL START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE W TO NW FLOW HAS SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. UPDATED GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE QUITE WELL WHEN COMPARING THIS WITH
THE UA DATA. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW
STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W
FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. GIVEN THIS SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE NICE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND MAY BE BETTER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY
EVENING. THEREFORE DID KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LIFTING FEATURES AND INSTABILITY
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS
LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARE
MUCH MORE APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC DETAILS AND TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES. MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DETAILS AND
THEREFORE HOW SENSIBLE WEATHER PLAYS OUT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS/GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL DID ALLOW FOR
LOWER POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
TIME PERIODS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND GFS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MCS ACTIVITY DURING A
WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME BUT HAVE QUESTIONS ON MODELS
ABILITY TO DETERMINE EXACT TRACKS OF THESE TYPES SYSTEMS SO FAR OUT
IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER THAT AFFECTED JKL...SYM...AND SJS
OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN SEEN AT SME THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENED
ACROSS SITE. EXPECTING FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z AT SME WITH CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILING. OTHER SITES MAY SEE A PASSING HIGH CLOUD
TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. COULD SEE VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT WAS NOT
CONFIDENT THIS WOULD AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN CALM AS GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WANE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/RAY
AVIATION...DJ


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