Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1055 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

Issued a quick update to fine tune the temps and dewpoints
through the next several hours based on current obs and trends.
These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 700 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

23z sfc analysis shows high pressure moving to the south of
Kentucky. This has cleared the sky and will maintain that
through the night. Winds are relatively light currently and will
diminish further with sunset, but they will likely still stay
mixed over the higher terrain overnight. Currently, temperatures
are running generally in the mid to upper 20s with dewpoints from
10 to 15 degrees. For the night, expect a small to moderate ridge
to valley temperature difference to develop. Have made some minor
adjustments to point forecasts and a few terrain based edit areas
owing to the wx regime tonight. These updated grids have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

Current conditions across the region features clear skies with
high pressure centered over the AL/MS area with the axis nosing
northeast over the OH Valley. This setup will persist into
tonight with clear skies in place and winds decoupling right after
sunset. Radiational cooling and clear skies will allow temps to
plummet into the single digits in some of the deeper eastern
valleys. Ridgetop temps will be in the teens with a 10 degree
ridge to valley difference despite the weak southwesterly flow.

Speaking of that southerly flow, heading into tomorrow, the high
over the southeast shifts east allowing for increased gradient and
increased southwesterly flow as high temps tomorrow afternoon may
reach the 40 degree mark in many locations. In fact, increased
advection from the south heading into Friday night will allow for
more warm air pushed into the area along with some upper level
cloud cover. This will make for less of a ridge to valley
temperature difference as well as lows only dropping into the
middle 20s, even in the deeper valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

The weekend portion of the extended forecast will begin with
zonal flow over the state of Kentucky, while a southern stream
cutoff low located to the south of the CWA will move to the east.
This pattern will be disrupted as the next primary precipitation
system of focus moves through the region Monday afternoon. The
models are coming into better agreement with this system compared
to previous runs. However, the GFS is still slightly quicker in
terms of the arrival of the precip.

WAA will be brought into eastern KY via SW to S flow Saturday
into Sunday due to a surface high pressure system building to the
south and moving eastward. This pattern will usher in warmer
temps for the weekend. Also, an inverted trough to the east of the
CWA will increase the possibility of precip Sunday afternoon.
However, the models are in disagreement with how much precip will
actually occur. The ECMWF favors more QPF versus the GFS which
favors little to no QPF. The cold front bringing in the main
precip will move in Monday. The warmer temps from the weekend will
cause initial precip to fall as all rain. However, cooler temps
will be brought in behind the cold front. This will lead to
increased chances for a post-frontal mix of rain/snow showers
Monday night into Tuesday morning, particularly in higher
elevations, as the system moves out of the Commonwealth. The main
story for the rest of the workweek will be cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST THU JAN 18 2018

High pressure just to the south will provide mostly clear/VFR
skies and fairly light winds through the TAF period. Wind will
generally be from the southwest at around 5 knots through the
period - though a notch or two higher at SYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...GREIF



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