Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251238 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DEMISE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. HAVE REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THE NORTH AND ELIMINATED THUNDER GIVEN THE WEAKENING
TRENDS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...AS
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW ON THE MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH
ILLINOIS...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM THE ILLINOIS LOW THROUGH KENTUCKY. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE COOLER AIR...WITH SOME VALLEYS HAVING
DROPPED DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S. ALOFT...SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ARE ON THE MOVE WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING FLOW ACROSS THE
CONUS. THE NEAREST ONE OF THESE TO THE COMMONWEALTH IS SPIRALING
ENE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS MAINLY INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...DEVELOPING
A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS...ALLOWING A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...HOWEVER
THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL GLIDE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING...MAINLY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A NICE WEAKENING TREND TO
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. SKIES WILL LIKELY
THIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR
WELL INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. HAVE GONE ABOVE
GUIDANCE TODAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 80 DEGREES
IN A FEW PLACES IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT MORE THAN FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ON
THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN THE FAR EAST MAY BE ABLE
TO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DECOUPLING TAKING PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO THE 60S...HOWEVER BY LATE IN THE
DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S IN THE
BLUEGRASS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT SLOWER WITH THE OVERALL TREND. WE DO SEE
MORE POST FRONTAL PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SECONDARY FRONT
THAT WILL USHER IN THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FRIDAY. DID BUMP UP
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE SLOWER TREND. THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY
WITH THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS AND ENERGY FROM TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL
BRING SLIGHT TO CHANCE SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A MIX EARLY FRIDAY.
THE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS. WE DO SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT STILL SEEMS MEAGER. THE SLIGHT POPS LOOK
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE VA/TN BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD LIKELY SWITCH TO
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COLD NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH CLEARING DO WE SEE
TO ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINKING RIGHT NOW LOW TO
MID 20S SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS. CANADIAN
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A COOL DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE QUESTION THAT REMAINS SATURDAY NIGHT IS WHERE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH SETS UP. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT
WE COULD EASILY SEE TEENS IN THE VALLEYS THAT ARE ABLE TO
CAPITALIZE ON DECOULPING AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS HIGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING RETURN FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS SUNDAY. MODEL DIVERGENCE
BECOMES QUITE APPARENT AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FASTER GFS HAS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER WITH
BETTER POPS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WILL STICK WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS THAT THE MODEL BLEND GIVES
FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MONDAY WILL FEATURES DECREASING CLOUDS
AS HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STAY IN
CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 838 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL MIX OUT BY AROUND
14Z...WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS...AND GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 KTS ENGAGING DURING THE DAY. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARDS DUSK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER
THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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