Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
075
FXUS63 KJKL 050800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.