Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252324
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS AND ADJUST
THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN
AND LOWERED THE TEMPS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK BUT MAY
NEED AN UPDATED ZFP AS CONVECTION WANES LATER TONIGHT. THE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT OT THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

LONG LIVED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CONVERGENT LOW
LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTH
TO THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGIME AND ITS PRECIP WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. ONCE ACTIVITY PEAKS
THIS EVENING...AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH LOSS OF
HEATING TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE PRECIP MOST
PLACES TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL AGAIN ENHANCE
OUR CHANCE OF PRECIP AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ON TUESDAY.
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT THE
DEGREE OF HEATING AND INSTABILITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STRONG WINDS
LOOK TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT. AN EVENTUAL DECLINE IN PRECIP
SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MOST OF THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN...AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING /CURRENTLY EXITING EASTERN KY/ REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
LOWS AND SHORTWAVES MOVE IN FROM THE PACIFIC COAST AND TRAVERSE THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS. KY WILL GENERALLY FIND
ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THIS TROUGHING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING KEEPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR EAST. AS
SUCH...EXPECT MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO TRAVERSE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH KY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH EACH WAVE BRINGING A
RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION.

EACH DAY...EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH BEST ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO
PROMOTE BETTER INSTABILITY AND CAPE VALUES IN THE 2 TO 4K J/KG
RANGE. AND WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...EXPECT TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80 RANGE
WITH DECENT HUMIDITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PWAT VALUES THROUGH
THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER EACH DAY...SO ANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY GENERATE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID...OTHER THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE
LIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF HIGH WIND GUSTS UNLESS MESOSCALE DRIVEN. AND LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING GOOD SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...LEAVING LITTLE DRYING ALOFT FOR LARGE HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
INSTEAD...EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THIS...SOME TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN CONTROL.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AND
HAVE PUT SOME VCTS IN THE TAFS AS SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT WITH
THE TIMING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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