Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.