Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
311 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Surface high pressure to our northeast and upper level ridging
extending from the southern plains northeast into the OH valley
will continue to control our local weather. More cumulus clouds
developed this afternoon than yesterday, especially over the
southeast part of the forecast area. These will dissipate this
evening leading to a clear night across the area once again.

With no change in air mass and similar temperatures and dewpoints
in place this afternoon, persistence is the best starting point
for the overnight low temperature forecast. With a little more
drying each day, the river/stream valley fog over the past couple
of nights has become less widespread. Will still carry some dense
fog in the forecast for late tonight, but will designate it as
patchy.

Fair dry weather will continue on Friday and Friday night, with
diurnal temperature ranges similar to what we`ve been
experiencing.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Models remain consistent with the idea of a strong upper level
ridge of high pressure maintaining dry weather with unseasonably
warm daytime temperatures through the upcoming weekend. I
continued to bump up highs from the raw Super Blend guidance each
day as we should flirt with 90 Saturday through Monday. Low
dewpoints will keep things relatively comfortable though,
especially at night.

The forecast for next week remains low confidence as models
continue to show marked differences in how they handle the break
down of the upper ridge and characteristics of the subsequent
upper trough that is likely to move eastward to take its place. A
surface cold front should pass through the region early next week,
but again timing differences are huge. Also, the 22/12z ECMWF
brings the front through largely dry now as the sponsoring upper
level trough splits leaving a lot of energy behind to settle in
over the southwest CONUS. The 22/12z GFS is slower and wetter
while the 22/12z CMC keeps the front well to our west through Wed
morning. So...will again side fairly close with the Super Blend
guidance which offers a good compromise for sensible weather
details. This will mean increasing clouds on Monday with a low
chance of showers/storms from late Monday through the day on
Wednesday. I did reduce PoPs a bit from the raw Super Blend,
hedging toward the dry ECMWF. Dry and much cooler weather is
anticipated by Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

High pressure over the northeastern United States will control
the weather across eastern KY through the end of the week. Fog
will once again be restricted to river valleys late tonight and
early Friday, and will not affect the TAF sites. At the TAF sites
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through Friday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SBH



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