Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280931
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
531 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP
IN THE LOW 20S.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 531 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT STILL SEEING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE
IN THE SOLUTIONS FROM DY6...THU AND ON. FLOW ALOFT IS PROGRESSIVE
AND GENERALLY ZONAL. BUT SIZABLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE
MEAN FLOW WILL KEEP WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
FORECAST WINDOW.

FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
REGION. CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH
OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM IS MORE PACIFIC IN ORIGIN...MEANING WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND IT.

MODELS AGREE ON TIMING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUE...TUE NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A STRONGER...DEEPER
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF BRINGS A MOISTURE STARVED SFC
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS
BOUNDARY BUT THE GFS STILL KEEPS THE SFC FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH
WITH ITS WEAKER MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO
SHOW A STRONGER RETURN FLOW SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CONSEQUENTLY
THE GFS BRINGS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS A LARGE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM KEEPS ANY MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. DECIDED TO
LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS HERE...FOR A SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE MID TERM TIME FRAME.

THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS LEADS
TO A MUDDLED...UNCLEAR FORECAST. WITH THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...STAYED WITH A TRUE BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES DO RESPOND
NICELY...WARMING QUICKLY BACK UP TO NORMAL LEVELS OR HIGHER. ALSO
NOTICING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TREND IN THE SOUNDINGS...ENOUGH
SO THAT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INTRODUCED FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF STILL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH H850 TEMPS
DROPPING BACK DOWN TO ABOUT -10C. BUT THE GFS HAS MODERATED QUITE
A BIT FROM 24 HOURS AGO...BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 4K
FEET AGL RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAWN. SKIES WILL THEN TURN CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY DUSK.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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