Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 010843
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS OF 0820Z HAVE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME RETURNS ON THE MOSAIC.
AT THIS POINT...THIS PSEUDO WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH THROUGH KY WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. IN FACT...THE ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP AT THE
MESONET SITES WAS WELL NORTH OF I-64 IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. WHILE
SURFACE AIR TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MOST LIKELY
DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING MORE THAN DIURNAL TRENDS...IT IS TO BE
NOTED THAT THE ROAD TEMPS REMAIN UP IN THE MID 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING SO FAR. THE MOISTURE MOVING IN OVERHEAD IS HAVING QUITE A
TOUGH TIME SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE SPS. THE HRRR AND NAM MODELS DO HAVE PRECIP FURTHER
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z
HOURS. IF THIS AREA DOES DEVELOP AS ROBUST AS IT IS...THERE MAY BE
A 1 TO 2 HOUR PERIOD WHERE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF FREEZING PRECIP
MAY FALL. HOWEVER...TIMING HERE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AND WARM UP AFTER DAWN. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...QUITE A TEDIOUS SITUATION BETWEEN ALL THE ELEMENTS IN PLAY
THIS SUNDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MOISTURE INFLUX CONTINUES WITH RAIN
ANTICIPATED ALL DAY AND FOR ONCE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
THE SURFACE LATER TODAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS TODAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S. HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST SAGS SOUTH OF THE TN BORDER AND
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND TONIGHT. AS THE DEPTH OF THE
MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMES SHALLOW...CAA WILL CHANGE
PRECIP TO ALL SNOW. THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED IN
BEFORE THE COMPLETE CHANGE OVER. BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF
MOISTURE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY SEE A DUSTING. EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAWN ON MONDAY WITH A NICE
REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ZONAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN THE APPROACH
OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

NAM ADVERTISES A 40-50 KT H925-H850 LLJ DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH BRINGS IN A WARM NOSE OF AT LEAST
+5C. TYPICALLY THE NAM HANDLES THE WARM NOSE BETTER THAN THE GFS SO
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME TO
MELT ALOFT. THE REST DEPENDS ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SFC TEMPS. WITH A
DECENT SNOW PACK STILL IN PLACE...ONLY A BRIEF FEW HOURS OF TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND A 5-6 INCH FROST DEPTH
EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA...MID TEENS FOR THE REST. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY MELTING OF SFC
SNOWFALL AND ICE WILL REFREEZE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREA ROAD WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLD SLICK SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
EFFORT TO REBOUND TOMORROW BUT INCOMING CLOUD COVER MAY DAMPEN THE
WARM UP CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC AND TOOK
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S...NEAR 40 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
BEFORE CIGS FINALLY BEGIN TO LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO
THE AREA WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BY 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTER
THIS TRANSPIRES...PREDOMINATE FIELD MIN CIGS DEVELOP AT JUST
ABOUT EVERY TAF SITE AS A GOOD AREA OF RAIN ARRIVES INTO THE AREA.
EXPECT SOME IFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AND PAST 00Z TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAWN
BEFORE THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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