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000
FXUS63 KJKL 222341
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
741 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF THE PRE FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND
TO BETTER TIME THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR OUT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AIR PRODUCED A
COUPLE OF DECENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THEY WERE NOT ABLE
TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS JUST
ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE MUCH LIKE
THE ONES EARLIER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SHOULD
ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. HAVE BEEN HANGING ONTO THE WATCH BOX...HOWEVER MAY CONSIDER
CANCELING IT SOON. WILL WAIT AND SEE IT THIS LINE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BEHAVES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

STILL WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO GET GOING TODAY. THE AREA WEST
OF JKL IS MORE STABLE THAN WHAT WE SAY YESTERDAY. THE AREA TO THE
EAST WHERE THERE HAS BEEN A LOT LESS CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING VERY
UNSTABLE. THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS SOME FORCING TO GET THE
CONVECTION GOING. WITH TIME THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH
AND THEN SOME CONVECTION MAY START POPPING UP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. AT THE TAF STATIONS...THEY SHOULD SEE JUST GARDEN
VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
MUCH RAIN FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE NEAR THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL START OUT WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST WITH SOMEWHAT FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH TIME
AS THIS TAKES PLACE...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO REAPPEAR AS A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY REMAINS ABSENT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN SOME
THUNDER WILL BE ADDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR OUT IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AIR
PRODUCED A COUPLE OF DECENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THEY WERE
NOT ABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS
IS JUST ENTERING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS ARE
MUCH LIKE THE ONES EARLIER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
AND SHOULD ONLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PUT SOME MIST IN THE FORECAST
THINKING THAT ALL THE STATIONS WILL SEE SOME RAINFALL. LATER THIS
EVENING AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND KICK OFF SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXCEPT FOR SOME TEMPO IFR
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE VFR UNTIL AFTER
6Z WHEN SOME MIST WILL BE FORMING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE... /JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JJ