Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 041210
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER
KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED.

THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND DEFINITION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...SO THAT
OUR POP WILL BE LOWER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REALIZING THIS DRYING
ALOFT...AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POP TODAY. WITHOUT ANY ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY
REDUCED...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED
8 AM EXPIRATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN OUR POP ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED. YET AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DRAPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS
KENTUCKY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING ONCE
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPS AT
NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY IFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
WERE SCATTERED OVER THE REGION. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TN AND VA
BORDERS...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
DETERIORATION TO MVFR...AND POSSIBLE IFR...IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL


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